DIPLOMACY IRANIAN STYLE

The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) and the European Union (EU) have agreed to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement signed between Iran and the six countries at the Vienna talks. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stated this after the meeting with the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian at the Baghdad Cooperation and Partnership Summit held on December 20-21, 2022 in Amman, Jordan.

The meeting was also attended by Enrique Mora, the EU nuclear talks mediator, and Ali Bagheri, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator. Borrell added that during the meeting he demanded Abdollahian to stop Tehran's military support for Russia and the use of force against protesters in Iran.

Both sides are also reported to have agreed on keeping the channels of communication open and resuming the nuclear talks in line with the agreement reached earlier in Vienna.

Three days before the Amman summit, a delegation of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited Iran. The main purpose of the two-day visit was to discuss issues related to three nuclear centres, which IAEA is highly suspicious of operating in the country clandestinely.

It is also known that a few days before the IAEA visit to Iran, Bahrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI), made a formal announcement on the success of their attempts to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent.

However, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, speaking at the Third Tehran Dialogue Forum, stated that Tehran had no intention of producing nuclear weapons, even though it had the necessary facilities to do so. He gave two reasons for this. Firstly, the development of weapons of mass destruction is forbidden by religion, as it is commanded as a sin (haram). Secondly, any attempt to do so could lead to a regional race to build the weapons of mass destruction.

Western media covering the IAEA visit to Tehran point out the agency's concerns about Iran's clandestine nuclear activities, which was the main reason for their arrival in the country. However, amid the ongoing disagreements between Tehran and the IAEA, it will hardly be possible to dispel the concerns of the IAEA experts.

Deciphering the outcome of the Amman summit

Yet the joint EU-Iran statement on the continuation of the nuclear talks raises a number of questions. Firstly, this means that the media campaign about the ongoing unrest and the subsequent change of the political regime in Iran is not on the agenda of politicians on either side. Brussels intends to continue the nuclear talks with Tehran in 2023. As pre-requisites, the European authorities demand Tehran to stop the military support of Russia and to reduce violence against protesters.

But it is clear that the Amman statement demonstrates the EU's interest in maintaining dialogue with the current Iranian government under all circumstances. In December, French President Emmanuel Macron, in his meeting with the representatives of Iranian protesters, clearly said that Paris would not seek change in the Iranian regime. In other words, Europe will maintain diplomatic contacts with the Iranian government through Paris. In this sense, the EU policy, especially the French one, explicitly diverges from that Washington and London.

It is worth noting France's special role in this process once again. In an attempt to get closer to Iran, the French president is likely planning a new ‘political attack’ in the Middle East. Currently, Paris is at least interested in keeping Tehran as a regional power centre. The failures of the French foreign policy in Saudi Arabia in 2017 and Lebanon in 2020 are prompting the Macron government to launch a very serious renewal of its Middle East policy. Paris's intention to launch a new offensive strategy in the region has been predicted before. Apparently, Iran is now becoming a new alternative for Paris in its updated Middle Eastern policy. During a September meeting with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in New York, Macron offered Tehran extensive bilateral and regional cooperation.

It seems that Macron's plan to have a closer cooperation with Iran will not remain on paper, but will become more practical. And, of course, Brussels will now be able to act relatively independently, trying to follow a path different from that of Washington with regard to Iran.

Current state of nuclear talks

Back in 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear agreement signed between Iran and the six countries three years earlier in Geneva, leading to a complete collapse of the agreement. Tehran has since restricted the IAEA's ability to monitor its nuclear programme, and declared its intention to increase uranium enrichment from the existing 4%, as stipulated in the agreement. As noted above, Tehran officials have already announced their success with the 60% uranium enrichment level, which is very close to the 90% necessary to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Despite the withdrawal of the US from the agreement, the other member states are still committed to it. Russia and China have not taken any serious steps against Iran's nuclear programme. Britain, France and Germany are trying to restore the agreement and maintain diplomatic channels with Tehran in order to be able to control its uranium enrichment activities. But the ongoing protests in Iran and the violent counter-measures by government authorities severely damage Tehran's relations with the EU. But unlike Britain and Germany, France seems more inclined to continue talks with Tehran despite mutual political accusations. This probably has more to do with France's regional ambitions than with the nuclear issue.

Prospects for a US-Iranian dialogue

Apparently, the relations between Washington and Tehran have been severely damaged, especially with the start of protests that have spread over the Islamic Republic after the sensational tragic incident with Mahsa Amini. Tehran accused the US authorities of pursuing unilateral policies and using various tools to pressure it. Iranian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Amir Saeed Iravani said Washington's attempts to get what it wants through pressure were futile.

The Iranian diplomat added that the main and decisive issue in the negotiations on restoring the nuclear deal should be the 2018 withdrawal of the US. "If Washington wants to return to the nuclear deal, it must rely only on diplomacy," Iravani said.

The then US President Donald Trump justified Washington's withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran by arguing that it did not protect the US interests, rather it was signed on terms more favourable to Iran. But even then, it was clear that Washington faced two major problems in addition to the risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons: Tehran's ballistic missile programmes and support for armed groups in the Middle East. Washington believed that apart from halting the production of nuclear weapons, Iran should stop supporting armed groups that threaten the regional allies of Washington and shut down ballistic missile programs that threaten Israel. Certainly, Iran does not agree with this. Moreover, Tehran has already announced the availability of missiles and drones (Arash-2) that can reach Israel.

Now there are two more problems for Washington: the supply of Iranian UAVs and missiles to Russia involved in the war with Ukraine, and the brutal actions against the local protesters, including executions. The Ukrainian issue is of particular importance to Washington. The West believes that Iranian missiles and drones help the Russians successfully overcome the challenges in Ukraine. Washington has therefore stepped up pressure on Iran through the UN.

The UN hearings on Iran’s actions and the progress of the nuclear talks indicate that Tehran does not expect finding a common ground with Washington on the nuclear issue any time soon. On the other hand, under the current circumstances, Tehran is interested to see Washington's stalling not only in Russia but also in Ukraine. For example, Tehran has already increased oil production to 3 million barrels per day and gas production by 10 per cent. Furthermore, according to diplomatic sources, Tehran has offered India, Asia's second economic giant, a comprehensive investment and energy agreement similar to the one signed with China.

Negotiating for negotiations

Apparently, Iranian diplomats intent on using the disagreement between Brussels and Washington to continue the nuclear talks and prevent the EU from adopting new sanctions against Iran, using the nuclear issue as a major bargaining chip in negotiations with the West. It is about restricting Iran's entry into the global energy market. After all, at least 40 cargo ships carrying grain and sugar (about 2 million tonnes of cargo) were stuck in Iranian ports in December because of payment problems due to the previous sanctions imposed on Iran.

Therefore, Tehran will try to use the nuclear issue as the only opportunity to mitigate the restrictions. And differences of opinion between Washington and Brussels on this issue could play into its hands.

Either way, the course of events shows that we are not going to see the final solution to the Iranian nuclear problem any time soon. Because there are currently no acceptable conditions for the resumption of the deal.