RUSSIAN OUTPOST MONITORED BY EU

Two or more countries can go for allied relations based on a variety of considerations. There have been many historical alliances based on religious, economic interests or friendship against a common enemy. But whatever is the background rationale, loyalty is the utmost principle the partners in alliance must hold on to in the first place. Playing on two fronts in politics has rather unfortunate consequences.

But this is what we can observe in Armenia, where yet another plot is revolving around the upcoming EU mission due to arrive in Yerevan soon, as the EU Council has already adopted a decision in this regard.

Who’s going to the border then?

To say that the EU decision raises questions is to say nothing. Baku has already stated that the dispatch of a new EU mission runs counter to the agreements reached in Prague, when the parties agreed on a limited and short-term EU mission to the region. But when the EU unilaterally violates the achieved agreements, Baku rightly considers such surprise moves unacceptable. Moreover, such a liberty raises serious questions about the validity of the EU's mediation efforts between Baku and Yerevan. The mission must have the approval of both Azerbaijan and Armenia to work productively on resolving the situation. In other words, unilateral initiatives are unacceptable.

The reaction of Azerbaijan is understandable, as the recent project with European observers looks very much like yet another French attempt to blatantly play its neocolonial card amid the obvious failures in Africa. Paris apparently intends to take revenge and break into the South Caucasus in order to pull Armenia from the Russian influence. But this policy is being done with such overt and cynical support for Armenia that it causes only a negative reaction and justified indignation in Azerbaijan.

Baku has repeatedly insisted on tackling the issues of peace treaty development, border delimitation and demarcation, etc. But such cosmetic measures only delay the process unnecessarily and do not contribute to positive changes.

When the outpost is scared

Yerevan has hardly achieved what it had expected from the first mission. Members of the missions have refrained from making statements. For some reason, the ambassador-at-large, Edmond Manukian, took the floor in social networks on behalf of the European observers, claiming that they had recorded the ‘bad behaviour’ of Azerbaijan. As expected, the audience does not understand why the Armenian ambassador was speaking about this, not the European observers.

It is quite likely that Yerevan has set and is stubbornly pursuing entirely different goals. Goals not peaceful and not for the benefit of its own people.

For decades, Armenia has rightly been regarded as Russia's closest ally and outpost in the South Caucasus. This status has brought it many dividends, from economic to territorial. For many years it has been assumed that no sentiments other than pro-Russian could exist in Armenia a priori. But today the situation is changing radically. Amid the Ukrainian war and sanctions against Russia, Armenia does not want to be considered an ‘outpost of the Kremlin’. Furthermore, this feeling of Armenian discontent with Moscow has been growing since the end of the 44-day Patriotic War provoked by the Yerevan-orchestrated clashes on the border with Azerbaijan, when neither Russia nor its allies in the CSTO did demonstrate any intention to get involved in a conflict with Azerbaijan and with Turkey in the long term. Furthermore, Moscow does not have much confidence in the current Armenian authorities, with Nikol Pashinian's team coming to power after the 2018 pseudo-revolution, when the Open Society grantees, i.e., former Soros staff occupied key positions in the country.

And now that Pashinian is disrupting the signing of the final declaration of the CSTO summit, cancelling the joint military exercises of the bloc in Armenia, and inviting EU observers to the CSTO zone of responsibility, Moscow is getting expectedly irritated. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has explicitly stated that this mission would not contribute to the conflict settlement. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also gave a harsh assessment of Yerevan's intention to invite European observers. This is how Moscow reminded Armenia of the fact that the European observers would visit the country, while the arrival of the CSTO representatives had been essentially disrupted.

One may ask whether Armenia is really determined to change its foreign policy vector and shift the camps. Many have fairly pointed out that the real reorientation should begin not with inviting European observers, but at least with taking control of Armenia's own borders with Turkey and Iran, which have long been guarded by Russians. Russia also owns virtually all of Armenia's infrastructure, gas and electricity networks, railways, mobile communications... In such a situation, it is at least arrogant to hope for a change in foreign policy course.

However, Russian concerns are understandable. Moscow views the invitation of observers from the unfriendly EU to be a violation of its allied obligations and a blatant discrediting of the Russian peacekeepers. How will the Kremlin respond to Pashinian?

The Vardanian move

Unexpectedly, the scandalous Russian oligarch Ruben Vardanian has moved from Moscow to Khankendi to take the position of state minister in the separatist government. He then began giving interviews sharing his views about his own great plans. However, he is unlikely to be so concerned about the fate of the Armenians of Garabagh in pursuit of self-determination. The notorious oligarch, owner of the largest Russian money launderer, the Troika Dialog bank, visited Khankendi not only to pose for cameras amidst beautiful scenic views of Garabagh. Allegedly, Vardanian was going to quickly get rid of the Khankendi mobs, replacing them with the retired Armenian political celebrities, including former foreign ministers Vardan Oskanian and Ara Ayvazian. But...

In mid-January, a new series of personnel reshuffles was announced in Khankendi. At Vardanian's initiative, Araik Harutyunian dismissed David Babayan as foreign minister. However, neither Oskanian nor Ayvazian was appointed the new head of the Nagorny Garabagh Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sergei Ghazarian, the former representative of separatists in Yerevan, has been appointed to the post instead.

Experts assumed that after his solid success in Khankendi, Vardanian would go to storm the building at 26 Baghramian Street in Yerevan with an impressive political team assembled in Khankendi. But neither Oskanian nor Ayvazian sided with him.

According to Armenian sources, an ‘impressive’ coalition is already being formed against Vardanian. Impressive by Khankendi standards. One of its members is a field commander Vitaly Balasanian dismissed from the post of Secretary General of the Security Council. The personnel shuffle in Khankendi, where security officials are replaced a week following their appointment, is a sure sign of top-level instability.

Vardanian has failed to achieve any significant success in Garabagh. The peaceful rally by the Azerbaijani environmental activists has seriously hit his most important asset—connections and influence in Moscow. Vardanian has failed to make peacekeepers disperse the rally in the Lachin corridor by force. Only his attempts to imitate a blockade have met some positive reaction. But it was limited to few statements from various countries and organisations. There are rumours in Khankendi about the imminent resignation of Vardanian himself, who has obviously not expected such a turn of events.

But this does not mean that Pashinian can now relax.