FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

Periods of prolonged instability and complex geopolitical cataclysms multiply the role and importance of the army, which acts as a guarantor of stable and independent development, for every nation and country. That is one of the reasons Turkic countries have started strengthening their defence potential and cooperation in military and political areas in recent years. Remarkably, this process is in line with agreements on strengthening co-ordination in resolving security issues.

Turkic security system: first steps

There are no clear agreements between the Turkic states on the development of a single platform that would make cooperation in military and military-technical areas possible. However, there has been a long-standing and ongoing security dialogue between them.

In his keynote address delivered at the 9th Summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Samarkand in November 2022, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev called on member states to intensify cooperation in security, defence and defence industry. Summit participants expressed solidarity with this idea, considering it necessary to elaborate on the issue at the next discussions.

Since the OTS states are members of different military-political blocs (Türkiye in NATO, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in CSTO), there are some difficulties in terms of developing unified political and legal mechanisms of military-political union within the OTS. OTS is not a military-political bloc, and the solution of security issues has a subordinate position in its agenda, albeit becoming increasingly relevant every year.

Meanwhile, there is room for bilateral and multilateral dialogue in the military and security areas. This can help the OTS member states to establish a more planned and structured interaction in terms of defence and military-technical co-operation.

At present, however, they are focused on resolving practical issues due to the urgency of exchanging military experience and improving military equipment of respective armies.

Institutional framework

This is necessary amid the observed breakdown of the international security system, as well as the increased exposure to external threats. Often the contradictions within the military-political blocs also hosting the OTS member states (Türkiye-Greece, Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan) can lead open conflicts between them. In addition, there is a danger of being directly involved in a global confrontation, while distancing from it requires reliance on own forces.

Improving and enhancing the combat readiness of the Turkish Army, which is a true model for the armies of other Turkic states, is an important condition for increasing defence cooperation. The army of Azerbaijan, which has been modelled based on the Turkish Army, uses its advanced technical and organisational solutions, and has demonstrated a successful performance during the 44-day Patriotic War is closely observed by the Turkic states. They see the Azerbaijani-Turkish military tandem as an example of future common military and military-technical co-operation between Turkic states. A prototype of such a cooperation may be the first ever joint military exercises among Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held in the Turkish training centre in Sparta, Türkiye just a few days after the OTS summit in Samarkand. The purpose of the military exercise was to practise coordination skills in case of possible crises in Turkic states. In particular, they included exercises on neutralising terrorists in populated areas.

Turkic World Vision 2040 adopted at the 8th Summit of the Turkic Council held on November 12, 2021 in Istanbul mentioned plans to establish the Civil Defence Mechanism in line with the agreed concept of common security system for the Turkic states.

It was first tested in practice right after the devastating earthquake in south-eastern Türkiye in February 2023, when the emergency ministries of Turkic countries took coordinated measures to clean up the area from the debris and provide assistance to victims. Some units of Turkic states responsible for emergency response remained in the country for weeks.

Drone diplomacy

Military-technical co-operation is a separate and the newly emerging trend of interaction between the Turkic states, with the Turkish defence industry being a kind of role-model here too. Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries have become the main customers of Baykar, Turkey's leading drone plant. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan are the first buyers among Central Asian countries.

In particular, Kyrgyzstan ranked first in Central Asia in purchases of Bayraktar drones. Moreover, their imports increased significantly after the border conflicts between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in September 2022.

Kazakhstan has also signed several deals with the Turkish company to become a regular buyer of Turkish drones. There is even a term, drone diplomacy, which demonstrates the role of Turkish arms sales in the implementation of military-technical cooperation plans in the Turkic community.

Of course, this does not mean that the OTS countries deal only with Turkish drone manufacturers. However, this gives all the countries in the region the opportunity to form a common technological platform that allows for the production of units that have similar properties as their counterparts produced under Turkish licences. And it is not only about Baykar.

In 2022, Kazakhstan signed an agreement with TUSAŞ, another Turkish drone supplier, for joint production in Kazakhstan. The deal makes Kazakhstan the first country outside Türkiye to produce the Anka drones.

So far only Uzbekistan has decided to follow a different path, preferring the use of American, Chinese and Russian drones. Tashkent is also trying to establish the production of its own guided drones.

Towards NATO standards

The interest of Turkic states to acquire or produce Turkish military equipment on their own is not limited to drones.

After Azerbaijan, which both consumes the Turkish defence products and produces own military boats, drones and armoured vehicles under Turkish licence, Kazakhstan shows the greatest interest in this process.

Following the drone companies, the Turkish defence company Otokar is also showing interest in cooperation with the regional countries. There are plans to produce armoured vehicles in Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan. 

Back in 2019, Otokar Central Asia, a subsidiary company headquartered in Astana, was established in Kazakhstan. In July 2023, Kazakhstan's Zenit plant signed a contract with Türkiye's ASFAT and YDA Group to build warships.

Another Turkish company, Dearsan Shipyard, is Turkmenistan's main partner in naval construction. It took part in the construction and upgrade of the Turkmenbashi Shipyard, which also produces combat boats.

Political and legal basis for bilateral military co-operation between the Turkic countries is developing rapidly. They are increasing contacts in various areas, including the military-technical co-operation, training and improving the combat skills of the military personnel.

Turkic states have no plans to create a unified army or even a military corps. Rather this is a gradual development of a single political and legal platform allowing for close interaction between the military departments of Turkic states. Despite active discussions in the media, the issue of creating a Turkic army is not interesting from a practical point of view. Perhaps, the idea is to study or make the public opinion ready in case such a step becomes probable. Or perhaps to defame this idea and present the ongoing processes as if they threaten the system of regional security and lead to military and political subordination of Turkic states by Turkey.

Currently, key challenges for the Turkic states are the study and adaptation of best international practices on building a modern army that can meet the objectives of strengthening the defence capabilities of respective states, taking into account existing challenges and risks. In this context, the goal of all the regional armies is to bring their armies up to NATO standards. Co-operation with the Turkish army makes it possible to achieve this goal with the greatest efficiency. It also provides Türkiye with additional geostrategic advantages that strengthen its role both regionally and internationally.