WILL BIDEN QUIT?

"We haven't stopped winning, and he (Trump) hasn't stopped losing," President Biden said cheerfully after successful regional elections for the Democratic Party held on November 7.

Apart from defeating the Republicans in their own field—in pro-Republican states—and swing states (states that do not favour either of the two governing parties), the victory of the Democrats can help them in the presidential election slated for 2024.

Governor Andy Beshear (D) was re-elected for his second term in Kentucky, defeating Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who had the support of former President Trump and GOP leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell. Republicans themselves say Cameron lost mainly because he adopted Trump's rhetoric in an attempt to boost Republican turnout at the polls. He ran a television ad touting Trump's endorsement of his campaign and proclaimed Kentucky the "Trump territory."

In Virginia, Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives and retained a majority in the state Senate, despite Republican Governor Gov. Glenn Jankin's significant outlay of energy and resources for the GOP to gain full control of the legislature.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats won another seat on the Supreme Court, securing majority. It can be used next year if candidates challenge voting rules or the results of the 2024 general election in that state.

Ohio's vote to to secure constituionally "the right to make and exercise one's own reproductive decisions," including abortion, passed by double-digit margins. Recall that Trump won in Ohio twice (in 2016 and 2020) by large margins, while the Republicans have recently been elected to the offices of governor and US Senator in Congress.

Since Biden took office, Democrats have consistently performed well in non-presidential elections, including midterm elections last year and several off-year elections this year.

Get rid of Trump

Republican Senator Mitt Romney said demands to ban abortion and support for Trump's unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election was stolen are badly hurting the party. "The more we talk about abortion, the worse we do," Romney said, noting that Democratic political ads in Virginia have consistently emphasised abortion rights. "While we're wasting time looking back to 2020, the American people is moving on. They want to talk about their future, not what happened in the past," he noted.

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who is seeking the GOP presidential nomination, believes that the losing streak for Republicans will only end if they get rid of Donald Trump.

Senator Steve Daines said Republican candidates for Senate need to articulate their position on abortion in a way that is appealing to voters and does not support the federal abortion ban initiated by Republicans themselves. 

Warning signs

Despite local victories, Democrats are increasingly worried about the state of Biden's re-election campaign. They are concerned, says The Washington Post, that the president and his team are ignoring warning signs, being reluctant to correct the course amid growing concerns that they will face a tough fight with former President Donald Trump.

Further evidence of these concerns came just days before the elections in Kentucky, Virginia and Pennsylvania. A number of polls showed Trump beating Biden in a potential nationwide matchup and in several swing states.

According to CNN, in a hypothetical rematch between the rivals in the 2024 election, Trump would garner 49% to Biden's 45%. In a CBS News poll, 51% of respondents said they would vote for Trump and 48% for Biden.

The New York Times/Siena College poll monitors found that Trump has an advantage in five of the six crucial swing states considered likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 race.

It has been suggested that the upcoming election could hinge on four states, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. So far, Trump is ahead of Biden by 10 per cent in Nevada, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Arizona and Michigan, and 4 per cent in Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead of Trump only in Wisconsin, by 2 per cent. In 2020, however, Biden beat Trump in all six of those states, albeit by a small margin.

Superstar

The White House and Democratic leaders have tried to allay fears, arguing that a year before the election, polls often paint an unfavourable picture for incumbent presidents and may not reflect voter behaviour on the Election Day. Most of the electorate doesn't follow politics at this stage of the election cycle, they said, and the environment for Biden will improve when he officially has a clear Republican challenger.

"Predictions made more than a year before tend to look a little different a year later," said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for Biden's campaign. He noted that polls predicted Barack Obama's defeat in 2012 and Democrats in Congress in 2022, but a year later they were performing well. "Once it comes down to the possibility of a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, those numbers will change," agreed Jim Messina, who managed Obama's 2012 re-election campaign.

Yet in recent surveys, even Biden sympathisers are beginning to doubt the favourable outcome of the election.

Of particular concern to Biden's allies are the signs of waning support among black voters, who considerably contributed to his win back in 2020. Many of them, especially younger black Americans, have been frustrated by Biden's policies on student debt (his attempt to forgive their debts was overturned by the Supreme Court) and fervent support for Israel. Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Foundation, predicts that a large portion of this category of voters will still support Biden. However, he says, the president risks turning some of them away from the 2024 election if his campaign doesn't step up its outreach to the electorate.

Some of the president's allies say that because the latest polls were conducted in the midst of Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip, the results paint a picture that can change over time. Biden has supported Israel's invasion, while black and liberal Democrats oppose it.

Some believe that the incumbent president's vulnerability has a lot to do with his age. 71% of voters agree to some degree that Biden is "simply too old to be an effective president," while only 39% of voters feel this way about Trump.

When asked if Biden has "the mental acuity to be an effective president," 62% of participants answered negative, while 35% agreed with the statement. For Trump, the numbers were 44 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively.

Biden has been criticised about his age ever since his 2020 campaign. At 80, he is the oldest US president in history. If re-elected in 2024, he will be 86 at the end of his second term.

Democrats also question whether Biden's strategy of focusing on the economy is effective and whether it's time for a change in concepts and tactics. They argue that the president should campaign more vigorously against Trump and other Republicans and focus on social issues like abortion rights, where Democrats have a big advantage, The Hill reported.

David Axelrod, a senior adviser to former President Obama, also called Biden's age "his biggest liability" that can't be fixed. He even suggested that Biden should drop out of the 2024 election: "He needs to decide, would it be wise, would it be in his interest or in the interest of the country?"

Simon Rosenberg, an experienced Democratic strategist, is confident that Biden's team still has a lot of work to do with black and Latino voters, especially young people: "There's a distance between Biden and young voters that we're going to have to bridge. It's a weakness that we're going to have to address."

Priorities

Currently, the president's campaign says they are gathering information, testing ways to appeal to voters and trying to determine what will work and what won't.

But the president appears unwilling to change strategy and is keen to make his economic programme, dubbed "bidenomics", the centrepiece of a likely rematch with Donald Trump.

A Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll conducted in various states shows that the economy is at the top of the agenda for many Americans. And perhaps the Biden administration can make gains among voters in the swing states who believe that the state should play an important role in developing infrastructure and lowering the cost of basic necessities.

Democrats, who won the November 7 legislative elections in Virginia, ran with a localised version of Biden's presidential platform: ensuring economic growth, supporting job creation and protecting reproductive freedom. This appears to be encouraging for Biden's team, which, citing polling results in other states as well, is confident that a majority of voters do share Biden's core priorities.