AMERICA NEVER CEASED TO SURPRISE

The upcoming presidential election in the US is set for November 5, 2024. According to predictions, the main candidate from the Democrats will be the incumbent head of the White House, Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has increasingly more chances to become the Republican candidate, as even the sceptics were impressed by his decisive victories in the primary elections (caucuses) in the states of New Hampshire and Iowa. After that, the White House has indeed come much closer for Donald Trump, although the battle within the Republican Party is not over yet.

Many observers tend to believe that in autumn America will witness a rematch between its bitter political rivals - Biden and Trump. Under the slogan Make America Great Again (MAGA), Trump is confident that he will be able to kick Biden out.

Biden says democracy and American freedoms will be on the line in the November elections. Therefore, the incumbent president urges Americans to "stop the comeback of a reckless billionaire to the Oval Office". 

Therefore, it is not surprising to see the growing number of forecasts predicting a deepening divide in American society. Especially since everyone remembers how the previous clash between Biden and Trump for the White House ended - with unprecedented riots in the Capitol on January 6. And now, four years later, the American elections will be accompanied by much more complex and serious geopolitical events. And Trump himself seems like a much more formidable opponent than he was before. Although, of course, there is still a lot of time before the finish line and anything can happen.

DeSantis and Haley

Donald Trump's victory in Iowa was historically overwhelming. No one had ever won there so convincingly before. The politician won the most votes in all but one of Iowa's 99 counties, where he lost by a margin of just one vote. According to CBS News, about half of Republican voters there identify themselves as part of Trump's MAGA movement, with both men and women of various ages among them.

Donald Trump's main Republican rival, Ron DeSantis, who was said to have great potential and could really become a serious challenger to Trump, has dropped out of the race and endorsed him. DeSantis made this decision because the ratings showed that he had virtually no chance. Trump thanked his former rival and invited him to fight against Joe Biden together.

Also quitting the race was what he called "Trump's most ideologically close rival", businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

Nikki Haley, whom Trump also easily defeated during the primaries in one of the key states, New Hampshire, winning almost 55% of the vote, still keeps the will and desire to win. Haley, who said she would continue to fight, couldn't help but acknowledge that Trump deserved to win. "New Hampshire is first, but not last. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states ahead," Haley said.

 By the way, the next stage will be held in her home state of South Carolina, where she served two terms as governor. But, according to predictions, she doesn't stand much of a chance against the former president there either. That's why Trump called Nikki Haley "out of touch with reality" on his Truth Social network.

Interestingly, there is speculation about Haley, who has also been the US representative to the UN and has received endorsements from Americans for Prosperity, that she might be running for Donald Trump's vice-presidential nomination. That might make some sense because her political views are so different from Trump's that she might balance him out pretty well.

At the same time, Haley firmly rejected the possibility of becoming Trump's vice-president if he wins. Although, perhaps, she realises the futility of her efforts as commentators believe that Haley's role is now reduced to merely formal opposition. And if she fails to win South Carolina as well, there is no point in continuing to Super Tuesday, when 14 states, including Texas, the largest for Republicans, will vote.

Super Tuesdays have been held in the US for almost 40 years on the first Tuesday in February or March in a presidential election year. Along with the elections in Iowa and New Hampshire, they are crucial because they quickly weed out the weak candidates.

Trump and his promised comeback

No matter how the race ends, Trump has already become a unique figure in the US political landscape in many ways. He was a controversial, colourful and scandalous president first. Then he lost loudly and also scandalously to his rival, but he also promised that he would not give up. And he did not, apparently, having managed to persuade his previous electorate of his expected success. And now he is winning a new one.

He is the first president in the US history to be impeached twice and whose supporters stormed the Capitol. And his case is the first in US history in which a former president has been federally charged. It has been estimated that the total penalty he could face is 700 years in prison. This is for "storming the Capitol", and charges of attempted election fraud in Georgia and the scandal about the payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels. There's also illegal possession of classified documents, perjury and obstruction of an investigation, and much more.

Currently, Trump's lawyers are buying time, for which they have initiated immunity proceedings. While these proceedings are ongoing, all federal proceedings against him are effectively suspended. It's also worth noting that in the US, criminal prosecution cannot be a reason to prevent a candidate from running for office. And if Trump becomes president, he will have an option to drop all federal prosecutors' cases altogether.

According to polls, many Trump supporters believe that he is just a victim of political persecution and are ready to vote for him anyway. Although, of course, this politician looks the least like a victim. And these criminal prosecutions are in fact the main political asset for him in the presidential race.

For the Democrats, he was a problem, and still is. Conspiracy theorists even say that he could be physically eliminated, which is not such a fantasy if we remember John F. Kennedy and other assassinated American presidents.

Another possibility to stop Trump from the election is to make sure that it is cancelled. Perhaps that is why Trump brought up 9/11 in his speech. "We wanted to stop terror from coming into our country. But I couldn’t talk about it because I didn't want to do that and the following day something happens. So I went four years keeping my mouth shut on that particular subject. But now I talk about it all the time. We had no attacks. We didn't have a World Trade Center. We didn't have the attacks like you've seen and certainly that you see in other countries," Trump said during a speech at a campaign rally in Laconia, New Hampshire.

Trump also added that the outcome of terrorist attacks was just the deaths of millions of people and huge wasteful spending: "We are getting involved again in the Middle East... We spent $9 trillion, killed millions of people... and what did we get? Nothing! We got death and blood."

So, theoretically, any state of emergency or declaration of martial law could be the reason for cancelling the November elections in the US. Also, the Democrats can still try and nominate another candidate to replace the unpopular Biden. 

Traditionalists vs globalists

Indeed, there is a unique situation in the US now. After all, we have always been led to believe that the two-party system is very stable and that every winning candidate becomes the leader of all Americans after inauguration, with the only difference being the presidential candidate's approach to taxation, healthcare, abortion rights (the favourite topic of Americans), migration policy, etc.

But now things are different, because the differences have become too sharp and too deep, both ideologies and values. In fact, they are taking over not only the US, but the whole world. The battle between traditionalists and globalists has become a very popular topic these days. Perhaps the easiest way to emphasise these differences is through the candidates' attitudes to foreign policy. And at the same time to emphasise that it would be fundamentally wrong to portray Biden as unambiguously bloodthirsty and Trump as peace-loving, which, incidentally, is a particular mistake of political observers in Russia.

It is enough to understand that Trump is capable of very unexpected actions and that he wants to make sure that his country continues to be considered the greatest power in the international arena. Yes, he is not ready to engage in dialogue with other centres of power, not even with China, with which, no doubt, he will fight in parallel waging a merciless economic war. And it is hard to guess what such a dialogue (especially with Russia, Iran, and China) may lead to at some point...

It is also important to understand that Trump may be an ardent supporter of a traditional state, the America we used to see in old Hollywood films, before total tolerant censorship was introduced there. However, the question is how possible and relevant his views are now not for ordinary citizens, but for the manipulators of the world's finance, technology, and ideology? A generation of wokists (followers of wokism, a term coined to draw special attention to issues of social, racial, and sexual justice) has already gained considerable strength in America. They have tasted all the perks of their position, all the opportunities that have suddenly opened up before them. And not because of their labour or talents, or even because they won a lottery. But simply because of some of their personal attributes - skin colour, sexual orientation, etc. This is essentially the new American Dream versus the old American Dream epitomised by Trump.

Does everyone want to watch this fight, if it suddenly starts in earnest?

Shall we get ready for yet another American show?

Where America turns this year will affect the entire world. As observers note, in anticipation of this event, many geopolitical decisions are even being put on hold at the highest level, because there is no understanding of what will happen next. What is the point of agreeing on something, looking for guarantees from the Biden administration, if Trump can change everything radically very soon? Up to the withdrawal of the US from NATO and a number of other organisations and trade agreements.

Also, another important aspect of the upcoming election, if it is Trump and Biden who will bring it to the finish line, is their age. Billionaire Trump actually looks so good and alert that everyone somehow forgets that in 2017 he became the oldest president in US history... until Biden broke his record. Trump is 77 now and will be 78 after the election. Biden is 81 and will be as old as 86 by the end of his term if he wins. And it's already all too obvious to many that it's sometimes very difficult for a sitting president to keep up with the pace of life that the Oval Office host must lead. But Trump isn't getting any younger either...

So the 60th presidential election in the history of the US may bring many more surprises before, during and after the start. As Americans say, it's time to stock up on popcorn. Seriously though, this state of affairs does not add any credibility or influence to the US, and it is certainly not a stabilising factor on the international arena. And that's exactly what we all lack at the moment.