INDICATIVE ELECTIONS

The March 15-17 presidential elections in Russia lacked an active pre-election period and did not surprise anyone with their results. Nonetheless, they proved to be intriguing and significant due to their final figures and global geopolitical implications. This is mainly because the current international order is undergoing a significant shift, with Russia positioned at the centre of this transformation.

Election Results

During the last presidential election, the incumbent President Vladimir Putin secured a record-breaking 87.28% of the vote (76,277,708 people), marking the highest percentage in modern Russian history. The remaining three candidates collectively garnered just over 10%: Nikolai Kharitonov (CPRF) received 4.31%, Vladislav Davankov (New People Party) 3.85%, and Leonid Slutsky (LDPR) 3.2%. Boris Nadezhdin, nominated by the non-parliamentary party Civil Initiative, was disqualified by the CEC despite considering himself an opponent of the incumbent president's policies. The voter turnout reached 77.49% (87,576,075 people), also setting a new record high with a 20 million increase compared to 2018. Consequently, Vladimir Putin secured his fifth presidential term and is likely to remain in power until 2030.

Central Election Commission Chairperson Ella Pamfilova reported various incidents during the election process, including attempts to spoil ballot papers with green ink, setting fire to polling stations, and over 12.2 million hacker DDOS attacks on the electronic infrastructure. Despite these challenges, the election proceeded without any major disruptions that could have impacted the results significantly.

A total of 1,115 observers from 22 European countries, 38 Asian countries, and 2 North American countries monitored the elections in Russia. Additionally, 14,700 media representatives, including foreign journalists, covered the polling stations.

Global Reactions

Following the announcement of results hours after the elections, Vladimir Putin received congratulations from leaders of around 40 countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasised the Russian people's support for Putin's re-election and expressed confidence in Russia's progress under his leadership. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the special relationship between India and Russia in his congratulatory message.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warmly congratulated Vladimir Putin on his victory and wished him success in his future endeavours for the benefit of the Russian people. Similar sentiments were echoed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Iranian leader Ebrahim Raisi, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, and leaders from West and Central African countries like Mali and Niger.

Vladimir Putin also received congratulatory messages from most of the neighbouring countries. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev wished Vladimir Putin success in his presidency to further ensure the country's development and prosperity.

Unrecognised Elections and Reality

In contrast, EU and US officials criticised the Russian elections as "unfree," "non-transparent," "rigged," and a "sham." The Guardian described Putin's victory celebration as reminiscent of Ivan the Terrible against the backdrop of St. Basil's Cathedral. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Russia's election was neither fair nor free.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated that Russian elections in Crimea, Donbas, Zaporozhye, and Kherson are deemed "non-applicable." The European Commission's spokesperson for foreign and security policy, Peter Stano, affirmed that the European Union would "never acknowledge" the elections held in regions claimed by Russia following the 2014 and 2022 referendums, as well as their outcomes.

German officials explicitly stated their decision not to congratulate Putin and referred to him solely by his surname, omitting his official position. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe issued a statement urging non-recognition of Putin's "presidential legitimacy" and advised limiting contact with him to peace-related or humanitarian matters, such as facilitating prisoner exchanges. Poland labelled the presidential election in Russia as "illegal," citing severe repression and its conduct in Ukraine's occupied territories as violations of international law.

In the US, despite criticisms of the election process, officials acknowledged Putin's presidency. Jake Sullivan, the US President's National Security Advisor, remarked on the predetermined nature of the election outcome while acknowledging Putin's presidency as a reality that must be addressed. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre echoed similar sentiments acknowledging Putin as the leader of Russia without additional commentary.

According to political analysts, Washington genuinely bases its assessments on the current reality. While it may be conceivable to establish a "Russian government in exile," it would still fall short of addressing key issues in Ukraine, nuclear security, the Middle East, and other crucial regions.

They also observed that Western assessments sharply contrast with those from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This divergence reflects the emergence of a multipolar global order where neutral countries assert their interests, categorised as "middle powers." Russia aims to position itself as a pivotal player in this evolving multipolar landscape.

Some analysts believe Moscow is effectively advancing its ideology by challenging Western norms, defending traditional values, and rejecting Western dominance in shaping global affairs. Russia challenges Western ideals of individualism, human rights concepts, and historical perspectives while advocating for an alternative to the US and EU-led world order based on democracy. Russia overthrows Western individualism, the Western understanding of the concept of human rights and the Western view of world history and where humanity can or should go from here.

Moreover, discontent with European and American models extends beyond Russia to citizens worldwide who critique Western electoral systems for perceived shortcomings in democracy. The US, for instance, has a two-party system without historical deviations from this structure. Critics argue that Western electoral systems may not align with their touted democratic values as anticipated. In the United States, for example, voters have the opportunity to choose between only two parties, and there has never been a case when this pattern was broken.

Where is it safer and easier to live?

In recent years, Putin has demonstrated effective domestic control amid economic challenges and international sanctions. Russia's economy displayed growth of 3.6% in 2023 and is projected to expand by 2.6% in 2024 according to the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, Russia's military capabilities have shown signs of enhancement.

Russian media has increasingly portrayed life in Western countries as potentially less safe or comfortable than in Russia, prompted in part by American journalist Tucker Carlson. Comparisons are drawn between aspects like New York and Moscow subways (often favouring the latter) or portrayals of districts in cities like New York and Paris as densely populated with migrants, homeless individuals, and marginalized people whom even the police reportedly fear. This narrative portrays Putin as a strong leader ensuring stability and security in Russia. However, a recent terrorist attack at Moscow's Crocus City Hall shortly after the elections challenges Putin's promises, potentially aiming to instil fear and panic within Russian society. The Kremlin's response to these security challenges will be crucial in the coming days.

In light of these events, it is evident that Vladimir Putin's fifth presidential term reflects the preference of the majority of the Russian population, given the absence of strong competitors or successors. While Putin instils confidence in the country's future, his continued leadership faces various obstacles, including sanctions, internal issues, and security threats highlighted by recent events.

The significance of concepts like collective consciousness and "sobornost" in Russian governance cannot be overlooked. "Sobornost," a term unique to Russian language and history, plays a pivotal role in shaping societal cohesion and governance structures.

At 71 years old, Putin currently stands at the peak of his power. The future trajectory of his leadership hinges on numerous factors, including ongoing challenges like sanctions, internal dynamics, and evolving security threats. The resolution of the conflict in Ukraine will notably influence Moscow's global standing and Putin's role as a key world leader and the president of Russia.