THREE GOALS IN THREE DAYS

The anticipated visit of President Ebrahim Raisi of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Pakistan, initially slated for January this year, eventually materialised, showcasing the solidarity of the region's Muslim nations with Tehran.

Background of the visit

The urgency for the January visit stemmed from escalating tensions, culminating on 17 January when Iranian forces targeted a camp of the Baloch separatist group Jaysh al-Adl (Army of Justice) in Pakistani Balochistan, near the Iran border. This incident strained bilateral relations to the extent that ambassadors were recalled for consultations.

Subsequently, Pakistan responded in kind, shelling encampments within Iran inhabited by ethnic Baluchis, framing it as a pre-emptive action against separatist assaults. Both strikes focused on Baloch groups, with Pakistan reporting two child fatalities due to Iranian military action, while Iran claimed seven casualties, including three children and four women, from the Pakistani offensive.

Following discussions between the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministers, tensions eased, leading to an agreement for President Raisi's visit in the ensuing months.

Three Days, Three Destinations, Three Goals

During his three-day tour in Pakistan, President Raisi engaged with President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, and Army Chief General Asim Munir.

Given Pakistan's parliamentary governance system, helmed by a prime minister overseeing the nation's political and economic affairs, the meeting between President Raisi and Prime Minister Sharif was a foregone conclusion.

At their Islamabad press conference, the leaders emphasised bolstering trade and economic ties, aspiring to elevate mutual trade to $10b—a significant leap considering the current trade volume.

For instance, Pakistan's imports from Iran surged to $944m last year, marking a 13% year-over-year increase in 2022 and a 2.5-fold growth over four years, likely propelled by oil and gas transactions.

President Raisi's meeting with President Zardari bore special significance, transcending its formal nature due to the deep-rooted political ties between their families and the historical significance of the Bhutto-Zardari lineage in Pakistan's political tapestry.

Notably, during Zardari's 2013 presidency, the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project commenced. Although India has since withdrawn, the project's revival this February hints at potential Chinese involvement.

Another promising venture is the Gwadar-Chabahar transport corridor, facilitating the movement of Chinese goods to the Indian Ocean via Pakistan, and onward through Iran to Russia.

Additionally, both nations are collaborators in the ITI (Islamabad-Tehran-Stambul) land transport and railway initiative, which holds strategic importance for Iran's ambition to evolve into a regional transport hub.

Security

The third critical issue uniting Iran and Pakistan is the shared threat of terrorism and security challenges. Excluding historical Indo-Pak border disputes and Iranian concerns in the Middle East, both nations grapple with the Taliban, ISIS, and Baloch separatism.

Despite the Taliban's strained relations with neighbours, Iran and Pakistan bear the brunt of its hostility. Iran has defused multiple border conflicts through diplomacy, while Pakistan, despite its historical ties to the Taliban, acknowledges the group's potential to exploit any governmental instability.

ISIS poses another threat, particularly the ISIS-Khorasan (IS-K) faction, which has perpetrated numerous attacks in both countries, destabilizing the religious and social fabric.

Baloch separatism, deeply entrenched in the historical region spanning Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, remains a potent political menace. The Balochistan Liberation Army's persistent assaults on government forces underscore the enduring challenge of separatism, exacerbated by external influences.

In summary, President Raisi's visit underscores a multifaceted agenda encompassing economic collaboration, infrastructural projects, and a concerted effort to mitigate regional security threats, all pivotal to the future of Iran-Pakistan relations.

It seems that Iran and Pakistan are indeed committed to deepening their bilateral relations. Despite the challenges posed by Pakistan's internal instability, Western influence on its military, and external pressures such as border separatism, both nations recognize that shared challenges and economic interests are vital in fostering closer ties. The leadership of both countries is evidently cognizant of the fact that addressing common issues and leveraging mutual economic benefits can significantly strengthen their partnership.