CONFLICTING DREAMS

The law on foreign agents On Transparency of Foreign Influence adopted on June 3 sparked a wave of indignation within Georgia and severe criticism from Western nations.

Why would the incumbent authorities, represented by the ruling Georgian Dream party, steadfastly pursue this decision when the next parliamentary elections are imminent (26 October), merely months after attaining EU candidate status? This conundrum baffles many, particularly in the West, where doubts have surfaced regarding Tbilisi's dedication to democratic principles and the prospects for Euro-Atlantic integration.

Yet, it was the Georgian Dream that championed European and Euro-Atlantic integration by initiating these ambitions of Tbilisi be enshrined in the Georgian constitution. Understandably so, as 90% of the population endorses joining the EU. Public sentiment remains unchanged, yet paradoxically, the same ruling party enacts a law that starkly alienates Western allies and plunges the nation into a political crisis. The rationale behind this remains elusive.

Western Paradigm

The government initially proposed the law on foreign agents in March 2023, but subsequently retreated in the face of widespread demonstrations. Nonetheless, it persisted with the concept (continuing discussions and approvals) and reintroduced it in the spring of this year. On May 28, legislators surmounted the veto imposed by President Salome Zurabishvili—84 out of 150 deputies voted in support. The core of the law, which has not only become contentious in Georgia but also somewhat of a milestone, is fundamentally straightforward and sensible. It mandates NGOs and media entities receiving over 20% of their funding from international sources to register as "organisations representing foreign interests", to unveil information, and to annually submit financial declarations to the Ministry of Finance.

Such laws are commonplace in numerous countries, particularly in Western nations, as they facilitate the identification of organisations potentially serving the foreign policy goals of other states. Notably, the USA was the first nation to enact such legislation. Under American jurisprudence, transgressing the law on registration of foreign agents (FARA) can result in fines up to $250 thousand or imprisonment for a maximum of five years. So, what is amiss in Georgia? Why has this law incited protests within the country? The most significant demonstrations since independence in 1991 following the dissolution of the USSR. Not only local citizens, politicians, and public figures participated, but also the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Estonia, and Iceland joined the protests. Numerous Georgian NGOs have declared their refusal to comply with this law and intend to contest it in the Constitutional Court, as well as in the European Court of Human Rights.

Critics argue that within the Georgian context, this governmental mandate on NGOs and the media clashes with EU values and norms. They contend it would erode democracy, suppress civil society, infringe upon fundamental human rights, muzzle independent media, facilitate the elimination of political opposition, and restrict discourse in the lead-up to the parliamentary elections slated for October. The United States, the European Union, and Britain have vehemently denounced the Georgian authorities for tabling the bill. Brussels has stated that the enactment of the law on foreign agents obstructs Georgia's trajectory towards the European Union and has called for the cessation of visa-free travel for its citizens. Matthew Miller, head of the press service of the US State Department, announced that Washington is imposing visa sanctions against Georgian legislative and executive officials involved in the law's passage. The State Department underscored that this represents merely the initial tranche of sanctions against the Georgian government, with financial constraints to follow.

The deliberation over a suite of draft laws On the Protection of Family Values and Minors is further exacerbating tensions. This includes, notably, prohibitions on the registration of same-sex unions, as well as on LGBT advocacy in educational settings, advertising, and the media.

Georgian opposition factions label the law on foreign agents as distinctly "Russian". It is perceived to be modelled after a comparable statute in Russia, "which Moscow adeptly employs to supress freedom of expression and thought". Western media are increasingly drawing parallels between the situations in Georgia and Armenia. Observations indicate that the domestic political challenges presently confronting Tbilisi and Yerevan signal a comprehensive campaign of hybrid warfare by Russia, aimed at destabilising these nations as they strive for closer connections with Europe and the West. It is highlighted that in both Armenia and Georgia, Russian and pro-Russian media wield considerable influence, disseminating ever-more sophisticated pro-Kremlin, anti-Western rhetoric. International commentators also underscore the economic reliance of both countries on Russian natural gas. In Georgia's case, an additional point of contention is that the founder and de facto leader of the Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, accrued his wealth in Russia during the 1990s, and since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, he and his associates have purportedly aided Russia in evading sanctions.

Unfazed by Threats

The Georgian government has thus far repudiated all allegations against it and, furthermore, has issued reciprocal critiques of its Western counterparts. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze asserted that by ratifying the law on foreign agents, Tbilisi has vanquished its "naysayers" by safeguarding its sovereignty and security. Moreover, Kobakhidze alluded to Western factions and their operatives within the nation, who purportedly seek to "inaugurate a second front and 'Ukrainianise' Georgia", and branded threats to obstruct Tbilisi's EU accession as reckless. Kobakhidze also recounted that during a dialogue with him, European Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Vargelius referenced an incident involving an assassination attempt on Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fitzo in a manner that Kobakhidze interpreted as menacing. The European official acknowledged the telephonic exchange with Kobakhidze but contends that the Georgian prime minister "misconstrued his remarks".

In late April, Bidzina Ivanishvili himself denounced the United States and the European Union as a "global belligerent faction" intent on entangling Georgia in an escalated conflict with Russia. Kakha Kaladze, the general secretary of the Georgian Dream and the mayor of Tbilisi, underscored that the statute was enacted "by the parliament elected by the majority of the country's populace" and that it "pertains solely to transparency", hence sanctions are "insubstantial" and "fear is absent among them".

Consequently, as numerous analysts believe, the forthcoming parliamentary elections in October 2024 will be pivotal in shaping Georgia's future international policy direction. Should the Georgian opposition surmount their disparities and triumph, the contentious law might be rescinded, and Georgia would persist on its path towards the EU. Leaders of 17 opposition parties and 5 independent MPs have endorsed the Georgian Charter, pledging a united front in the quest for governance. The distinctiveness of the impending elections lies in their exclusive conduct under the proportional system, devoid of majority constituencies, despite such constituencies historically underpinning the ruling party's success. There are also conjectures that the Georgian opposition might seek to attain their objectives through a new Maidan in Georgia. Nevertheless, the ruling Georgian Dream party, at the helm since 2012, shows no inclination to relinquish its status. The rationale for escalating the stakes remains an enigma…

Is There an Accord?

Amidst this backdrop, geopolitical interpretations of the unfolding events suggest that Georgia is being coerced into choosing between European and Eurasian alliances. Consequently, several analysts and commentators speculate that the Georgian Dream harbours a pact with Moscow concerning the status of Abkhazia and, presumably, South Ossetia. Since 2008, these Georgian provinces have remained under Russian dominion, situating Russian forces mere tens of kilometres from Georgia's capital. Discussions revolve around a "confederal Georgia" blueprint, wherein Abkhazia and South Ossetia would ostensibly revert to Tbilisi's jurisdiction, presumably in exchange for Georgia relinquishing its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

This hypothesis holds weight, as the reclamation of Georgian territories garners widespread public support, rivalling the endorsement for European integration. However, it is underscored that, should such a plan truly exist, its fruition is improbable prior to the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and without considering its outcomes.

For Russia, the benefits are multifaceted. Not only could it alleviate the fiscal burden of subsidizing these regions amidst wartime expenditures, but it could also foster improved relations with Tbilisi. Nevertheless, Russia would likely maintain its military foothold in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with the naval base in Ochamchira being a long-standing topic of discussion. Moreover, it would pave the way for reopening railway connections through Georgia, extending to other South Caucasus nations and Iran.

The narrative intertwines with the developments surrounding Anaklia's deep-water port on the Black Sea, where the construction tender was recently secured by China Communications Construction Company Limited. This aligns with the previous year's declaration of a "strategic partnership" and visa regime abolition between Georgia and China.

Previously, a US-led consortium was slated to oversee this project, but the contract was annulled in 2020 amidst speculations of Russian coercion. Presently, Western media outlets assert that the Georgian Dream is effectively ceding control of the port to China, positioning it as a pivotal node in Beijing's One Belt, One Road initiative. Notably, a mere 36 kilometres separate Ochamchira from Anaklia, fuelling discourse among Western observers about a potential Russian-Chinese alliance in the Black Sea's eastern sector. The functioning port could dramatically transform the region's geo-economic and geopolitical dynamics. Tbilisi appears poised to capitalize on its strategic geographical placement, with prime access to the Black Sea at the forefront.

Indeed, Georgia's significance as a vital conduit for gas and pipelines is indisputable. Yet, the nation faces a stern test due to escalating political polarization. The impending parliamentary elections in October 2024 are anticipated to be a defining juncture for Georgia's future trajectory.