SUMMIT PAVING WAY TO TREATY?

The participation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the recent CIS summit garnered attention, particularly as it occurred during an unprecedented crisis in relations between Azerbaijan and the United States, perhaps the most significant in recent history. Additionally, the timing coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin's birthday, fuelling speculation about a potential rift between Azerbaijan and the West. 

CIS As A Priority

For Azerbaijan, relations with its neighbouring countries have always been paramount, regardless of its interactions with external actors. The CIS countries, especially Russia, have historically maintained close ties with Baku. Notably, the Russian Federation is the only state, aside from Armenia, that shares a common border with Azerbaijan both by land and by sea. Among Azerbaijan's four institutional allies, three are CIS countries. Furthermore, five members of the Organisation of Turkic States are also part of the Commonwealth, as are four of the five nations involved in the Caspian format. 

These factors contribute to Baku's active engagement in dialogue with these countries. Importantly, security issues, high-tech cooperation, trade, economic collaboration, cultural exchanges, and humanitarian initiatives were prioritized on the agenda of the Commonwealth summit. It is essential to note that security remains a critical concern for the South Caucasus region. The unresolved issues between Azerbaijan and Armenia are partially included in the CIS agenda since both countries are Commonwealth members. Moreover, Nikol Pashinyan's attendance at the summit—something that has become infrequent—provided an additional opportunity for substantive discussions on matters of mutual concern. 

Armenia's steady shift towards the West is currently creating numerous challenges for its formal allies within the CSTO and EAEU, which are also CIS members. Moscow, whose interests in Armenia are increasingly at risk, is particularly concerned about this trajectory. Additionally, we cannot overlook the crisis in relations between Yerevan and Minsk, instigated by Armenia and negatively impacting the overall agenda of the Commonwealth. 

Security: A Key Topic On the Agenda

It is worth recalling that prior to the summit, a meeting of Commonwealth Foreign Ministers took place. As a result, Armenia chose not to endorse the statements on the "Principles of Ensuring Security in Eurasia" and on the "Inadmissibility of Unilateral Measures in International Relations." This clearly illustrates Armenia's intention to refrain from participating in the development of a unified security platform with other nations. The influence of Armenia's Western partners has become evident; they closely monitor Armenia's actions with its formal allies, primarily Russia, and adjust their approach based on Moscow's activities. 

Armenia's active role in shaping the post-conflict agenda in the South Caucasus following the 44-day war prompted Western countries to adopt a more assertive stance and propose solutions they believed would be effective for resolving past conflicts. At one point, the West—represented by the European Union and the United States—was able to encourage Armenia to acknowledge Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. However, over time, the West’s position has increasingly tilted toward a pro-Armenian perspective. This shift irritates Azerbaijan while also raising concerns for Russia, which views such actions as threats to its interests. 

It is no coincidence that Yuri Ushakov, aide to the Russian President, remarked on the West's role in post-conflict peacebuilding in the region by stating that all substantial work toward concluding a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been carried out in Moscow. According to him, the US and several Western countries are attempting to meddle in the negotiation process to become involved in regional affairs. He highlighted that not all participants welcome such "attempts to interfere in negotiations" even during bilateral discussions. 

Currently, Azerbaijan stands as Moscow's primary partner and ally in the South Caucasus, as both sides share aligned visions on key issues within their current agendas—most notably concerning regional security driven by local players themselves. 

Ilham Aliyev's Accents

Under conditions of significant external interference in shaping a new security system within the South Caucasus, coordinated actions among the countries of the region appear necessary. It is apparent that these matters were discussed during Russian President Putin’s separate meetings with both Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders, focusing primarily on bilateral dynamics. 

During his meeting with Vladimir Putin, Ilham Aliyev emphasised that achieving the objectives set during the official visit of Russia’s head of state to Azerbaijan requires urgent attention and action. In connection with Lachin being designated as the cultural capital of the CIS in 2025, President Aliyev stated: "Lachin is one of Azerbaijan's cities that was under Armenian occupation for nearly thirty years and was almost entirely destroyed. Today, Lachin has been restored, and a new life has emerged here; former IDPs have returned. The declaration of Lachin as the CIS Capital of Culture has been met with immense gratitude from both Lachin residents and all Azerbaijani people." 

This decision serves as formal recognition by CIS countries—including Armenia—of the outcomes of the Second Garabagh War and anti-terrorist operations conducted in Azerbaijan’s Garabagh economic region. It affirms the legitimacy of the principle: Garabagh is Azerbaijan! Another decision by the Council of Heads of State selected Ganja as the CIS sports capital, where future Commonwealth Games will take place.

Remarkably, for the first time in many years, President Aliyev's speech did not focus on conflict-related topics concerning Armenia; instead, it largely highlighted Azerbaijan’s contributions to defeating fascism during World War II from 1941 to 1945. 

Pashinyan's Shifting the Blame

In contrast, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan dedicated a substantial portion of his address to the subject of peace parameters with Azerbaijan. He posited that a peace agreement could be concluded "even tomorrow." He stated that mutual recognition of territorial integrity, accompanied by assurances against any future territorial claims, would be sufficient for an agreement to be reached. 

Pashinyan appeared to utilize the CIS platform to present an additional set of initiatives while demonstrating his dedication to addressing urgent matters within the peace agenda. However, he did so in a manner that was, by his own standards, somewhat contradictory. He proposed a peace treaty that was not particularly enthusiastic, while suggesting that all remaining complex issues be negotiated separately at a later date. 

Such statements did not leave a strong impression on those present; rather, they reaffirmed the view that there is no reason to anticipate any breakthrough solutions regarding the peace agenda in the near future. Yerevan subtly indicated its unwillingness to alter its stance on the current negotiations with Azerbaijan, thereby suggesting that the status quo remains unchanged for the time being. 

It is worth noting that an agreement was reached between Moscow and Yerevan regarding the termination of the Russian border guard presence along the Armenian-Iranian border, with the transfer of their responsibilities to Armenia itself scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2025. It is noteworthy that the Russian border guards concluded their service at Zvartnots airport on July 31, in accordance with the demands of Armenia's Security Council, which were made in March. It is as yet unclear whether this signifies an increase in Armenia's sovereignty or represents concessions from Moscow due to broader conceptual agreements. 

Notwithstanding the decision to withdraw Russian peacekeepers from Armenia's border with Iran, Russian officials have made it clear that their approach toward unblocking communications remains unchanged. In a recent statement, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk emphasized the necessity of Russian involvement in the unblocking of economic and transport corridors in the region.

It remains unclear whether this involvement will pertain to Russian Railways or security forces, as outlined in paragraph nine of the trilateral ceasefire statement signed by leaders from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on November 9/10, 2020.

Among the other significant topics addressed at the summit was the adoption of a document establishing an honorary title, designated as the "City of Labour Glory. 1941-1945." The title will serve to acknowledge and honour cities within Commonwealth nations that made a significant contribution to the logistics of the Second World War. It seems inevitable that Baku will be among the first nominees for this honour, given its well-known contributions toward achieving victory over Nazism, as highlighted by Ilham Aliyev during his speech at the summit.