WHO WILL SAVE FRANCE?

France's former president, Nicolas Sarkozy has stated his intention to return to big-time politics. There can be no doubt that, in making this statement, the former master of the Elysee Palace has declared his intention to stand for president in the elections in 2017.

A couple of months ago, not only his political prospects but even his life as a free man was hanging by a thread. At the beginning of July he was officially charged with corruption and abuse of his influence for mercenary purposes. The politician, who occupied the post of French leader from 2007-2012, was suspected of promising a high-ranking judge a new post in Monaco in exchange for information on the investigation into the financing of his electoral campaign. This is the so-called "Madame Bettencourt case", initiated in 2013 in connection with accusations of illegal receipt of finances from Liliane Bettencourt, who inherited the L'Oreal cosmetic company.

According to the allegation, the ex-president of France took advantage of the prominent businesswoman's declining years to obtain finance for his own purposes. In October last year the allegations against Sarkozy were withdrawn owing to lack of evidence. But the subsequent "court case" again hung over Nicolas Sarkozy like the sword of Damocles. His situation deteriorated when documents were obtained by the investigators testifying to the fact that Sarkozy's party headquarters had been illegally financed by former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, whose regime collapsed as a result of strikes by the Western allies, including France. As leader of the country at that time, Nicolas Sarkozy played a decisive role in the fate of the overthrown and physically exterminated leader of the former Jamahiriya.

But now Sarkozy has announced his return to big-time politics. A few days ago, his striking statement to the Court of Appeal in Paris caused the investigation into the case of allegedcorruption and abuse of his influence for mercenary purposes on the part of the former president to be suspended.

The former president explains his return to the political arena as being exclusively for noble purposes, as an attempt to save France, which he loves far too much to leave it to the mercy of fate. The first step along this path is to be his election to leader of the Gaullist party "The Union for the Popular Movement" (UMP), which has remained without a single leader because of differences within the party.

According to Sarkozy, he has returned to offer his fellow countrymen a "worthy alternative" to the current socialist leadership, whose head, incumbent president Francois Hollande, he refers to when with close friends, as a "good-for-nothing" and a "weakling".

Hollande's standing really has become considerably weaker over the last few months. In the second quarter of 2014, the country's economy showed zero growth. Almost 3.5m people in France are unemployed. Many are dissatisfied with their social situation. Recently France (and not only France) has been stricken by AirFrance pilots' strikes. Farmers set fire to the tax office in Morlaix [Brittany] in protest against the low standard of living,

The failures in economic policy are even having an impact on the stability of political power. The recent resignation of the former Cabinet of Ministers headed by Manuel Valls, was indicative of the crisis in the French leadership. The latter raised the issue of a vote of confidence in the newly created government, which he himself alsoheaded. Properly speaking, Valls need not have resigned, but he was preparing to overcome the seriously shaken position of the socialist government by improving the economic state of affairs.But, according to the prime minister, it was impossible to change this without applying unpopular measures like cutting the budget deficit by imposing restrictions on social programmes. Therefore Valls decided to enlist the support of parliament first. The National Assembly gave Valls' new government a vote of confidence, with 269 deputies voting in his favour and 244 voting against. As you can see the gap is not very wide, so there is no way that we can say that Valls has been given carte blanche to do as he pleases.

The socialist cabinet, just like President Hollande, found that it had lost the support of a considerable part of the French political class. But the intrigue in the current situation in France by no means boils down to that. For the first time in the Fifth  Republic there is a real alternative to the traditional power, which moves from socialists to the right-wingers (in the form of the Gaullists), but can, on the contrary, mean an ultra-right party  like the National Front (FN, [Front National]). The results of recently conducted opinion polls are extremely noteworthy.

If presidential elections were to be held in France now, National Front leader Marine Le Pen would win. This is the most obvious manifestation of how unpopular the incumbent socialist president is. These public opinion polls confirm that today 80 per cent of French people are dissatisfied with Hollande. The number who are not happy with Prime Minister Manuel Valls is 67 per cent. It is not without reason that before the parliamentary vote of confidence in his new cabinet, Valls warned with a trembling voice that the ultra-right are "at the gates of power"..

The National Front really is chafing at the bit to get to the Elysee Palace, albeit slowly, but persistently. In May this year, the French ultra-right achieved considerable success in the elections to the European parliament, gaining 25 per cent of the vote. At the municipal elections in France Marine Le Pen's fellow party members achieved brilliant results. More than 1,500 National Front representatives joined the system of local self-government.

In the context of the current tendency to internal political confrontation in France, Nicolas Sarkozy's comeback can by no means be regarded as accidental. One thing is obvious, that the liberal political, financial and business class in France has no interest whatsoever in Marine Le Pen and her National Front coming to power. Although it is a parliamentary party, it essentially represents ananti-systemic force, clearly striving to cardinally reorganise the way the state is run.

The current French elite is seriously afraid firstly of the National Front's intention to change the strategy of domestic policy. Moreover, Le Pen is by no means projecting the National Front leader's attitude to immigration which has been widely whipped up in press. In order to understand the essence of what she is trying to bring to French politics, it is sufficient to take a look at her comments on Sarkozy's return to politics: "The French no longer want public relations managers to lead them, to be manipulated by them and to have sold to them what does not really exist". In other words, the National Front leader has threateningly raised her hand against the interests of the underhand French authority and given it to be understood that not only she herself, Marine Le Pen, but an ever growing number of citizens in France intend to put an end to the domination of those who skilfully manipulate the public awareness through the media and the latest political technologies, who use the country's resources and state power for the benefit of themselves and their own small group of people.

 The above-mentioned elite are just as worried about Le Pen's views on foreign policy.She is calling for the break-up of the European Union as it is an instrument that is in the hands of the political and business upper classes in the European countries, who are closely linked to the USA ad American capital. From Le Pen's point of view, the Europeans need a Europe which will pursue its own interests and not live according to America's bidding.

Such views coming from a politician, whose popularity has grown in France to such an extent that the majority of citizens are expressing the desire for her to take the reins of supreme power in the country, are a direct challenge to the ruling elite. In order to stop Le Pen from entering the Elysee Palace, the idea developed in the upper echelons of the French political class to give ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy another chance, even if he is a scandal-ridden, but extremely mobile personality. Against the backdrop of the chronic weakness of the socialists, he does at least express the readiness to rescue the system of liberal power, which is increasingly becoming bogged down in crisis.

To do this, the mighty people behind the scenes have even released all the necessary resources in order to free Nicolas Sarkozy from the criminal cases he is charged with. It is no accident, that in speaking about his decision to return to politics, Sarkozy himself stated that he does not wish to see France either "being doomed to the present humiliating spectacle or to the prospects of total isolation in the event of the "National Front" party coming to power.

The main obstacle to Sarkozy's return to the Elysee Palace moreover may be that many French people do not want to see him as an active player in the country's political arena any more. According the public opinion polls, 61 per cent are not in favour of his bid for the leadership of the UMP, and 63 per cent are opposed to Sarkozy standing in the presidential elections in 2017. Only 29 per cent of French people believe him to be an "honest" person.

No matter what happens, the "Sarko-show", as they call Sarkozy's new presidential campaign in France, has already started. On 25 September the first rally after his return to big-time politics took place in the town of Lambertsart [in northern France]. Will this comeback lead for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic to an ex-president becoming the master of the Elysee Palace again sometime after he stepped down from power? The next few years will reveal this secret of modern French politics, as unpredictable as always and significant not only for France.