AN UNEXPECTED TURN

Constitutional reform in Armenia has been postponed. The Armenian president's press secretary, Arman Saghatelyan, has said that the Armenian president's final position on the concept of constitutional reform would probably be revealed in February-March next year.

Constitutional reform has been discussed in Armenia for some months now. Some time ago, it seemed that the situation was about to be finalised. After lengthy arguments and debate the text of the concept of constitutional reform, which had been drawn up by a special commission under the republican president, was published in Armenia. The Armenian justice minister also published the positive conclusion of the Venice Commission: "The draft concept of constitutional reform is a valued and reliable basis for preparing a specific package of constitutional reforms that will strengthen democratic values and create the necessary conditions for ensuring the supremacy of the law and respect for human rights. The draft is based on a comprehensive and consistent analysis of the situation in the country. The aim of the project is to bring Armenia closer to full-fledged implementation of the basic values of the Council of Europe. Although it will lead to significant changes, it will not be a rejection of the current constitutional system. It will be based upon the constitutional reforms adopted in 2005 with some rectifications which arose during their implementation."

The basic concept of constitutional reform in Armenia is the transition towards a parliamentary system of government. In this case the president of Armenia will be elected by parliament for a term of seven years without the right to re-election. The president's main task will be the enforcement of the Constitution and the effective exercising of the powers of restraint and counter-balance, which is possible only if the president is not drawn into current political problems, and is an impartial, "non-partisan" figure and, above all, fulfils the role of mediator and arbiter. This all sounds rather splendid, except for the fact that real power spills over from the president to the prime minister.

Many analysts feel that Serzh Sargsyan has quite possibly tried to carry out the same manoeuvre as Mikheil Saakashvili did and failed. The former Georgian president, completing his second and final term as head of state, carried through a package of constitutional reforms in the country according to which power was redistributed from the president to parliament and the prime minister.  Later, it was assumed, the United National Movement Party would have to lose the parliamentary elections, after which Mikheil Saakashvili would take over the post of prime minister. Except that, contrary to original plans, Saakashvili's supporters lost the elections to the opposition Georgian Dream coalition.

Serzh Sargsyan, by all accounts, doesn't want to give up power, either, especially as against the background of an "ice age" in the Armenian economy this is one of the few really profitable types of business. Many believe he does not have a sufficiently reliable "fall-back position". Moscow, experts warn, has scarcely condoned his too-long deliberations over Armenia's joining the Eurasian Union or signing an association agreement with the EU. The foreign Armenian diaspora continue to regard him as virtually a traitor because of his negotiations with Turkey. And it is not surprising that he, as many experts believe, bargained on putting into practice the Georgian system, at least until such a time as the opposition leaders forced Sargsyan to promise that he would no longer stand for president or prime minister. After that it seemed that he simply lost interest in constitutional reform.

Be that as it may, events in Armenia have now taken an unexpected turn. Soon after the publication of the draft constitutional reforms, the Yerevan newspaper Zhoghovurd suggested that the final version of the concept of constitutional reforms would henceforth await Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's endorsement. However, it is still not clear when - or indeed, if - this will happen. In its opinion, if four of the six political forces represented in parliament support constitutional reform, the authorities will then be able to talk about a consensus. However, the paper claims, the Armenian authorities are discussing the possibility of rejecting a referendum on constitutional reform altogether. Within the bounds of possibility is a statement by Serzh Sargsyan that he was originally against constitutional change, but instigated the process because the opposition was demanding a switch to a parliamentary form of government. And now those same political forces are coming out against the reforms and so he decided to halt the process.

And as current events have shown the pessimists, as always, have been proved to have been right. A final decision on constitutional reform has been postponed until February-March and it is possible that at the beginning of next year there will be further reasons for its postponement.

Quite another matter is the reaction of the Yerevan opposition which has been quite cool in its attitude to constitutional reform, preferring to dissertate upon the fact that before changing the form of rule to parliamentary the government itself needs to be replaced. Moreover, these statements are being made at a time when the opposition has embarked on an impressive "rally marathon" and is organizing quite a number of protest actions in the Armenian capital.

But this is quite serious, especially as the president's "inner sanctum" cannot fail to understand how much "explosive material" has accumulated in Armenia with poverty running at 40 per cent of the population. The return to power of the criminal oligarchy is causing understandable indignation: in Yerevan's poorer areas they are convinced that "the new old appointment" of Suren Khachatryan ("Sunik"), better known as "Liska", as governor of Zangezur was no coincidence. Hopes of a jaw-dropping economic effect from Armenia's joining the Eurasian Union are also melting like morning mist. And it is already obvious that by no means all the economic consequences of such a decision will end up with a "plus" sign.

At the same time, the fact that the Armenian deputy prime minister and the minister for territorial administration submitted requests for resignation at the same time gives some food for thought. As Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan said when closing the latest session of the cabinet, [Armen] Gevorkyan "wishes to continue to work in the private sector and will also continue to cooperate with the government". 

Such transfers to the private sector do occur in politics as we know. But, first of all, business projects serious enough to abandon the post of deputy prime minister simply do not happen in Armenia. Secondly, 41-year old Gevorkyan is a manager through and through. And he has not been involved in any major scandals. He has generally stood aside from political intrigue. And against this background his resignation looks more like leaving a sinking ship. In other words, constitutional reform in Armenia is being postponed, but the threat of domestic turmoil remains the same.