"OBAMA-MANIA": INITIAL OUTCOMES

In the United States and beyond, people are evaluating the first year in the White House of US President Barack Obama, a leader who campaigned under the slogan "Yes, we can!" and whose popularity at home and abroad exceeded both dream and reality.

Although shortly before the elections most public opinion polls indicated a firm lead for the Democratic Senator from Illinois (Obama's running mate was would-be Vice-President Joe Biden), actual and hypothetical circumstances were not in his favour. Seven years after the 9/11 tragedy and amid wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the chances of a candidate with a Muslim middle name, who had also studied in a Muslim school for several years, were obviously not very promising. It was also hard to believe that an African-American White House leader would emerge in the United States, a country where generations still remember "whites only" signs. 

The outcome of the elections was therefore even more surprising: the first-ever African-American president gained 2,025 electoral votes against 1,517 votes for his Republican rival John McCain. 83 percent of American voters supported Obama on inauguration day. 

To be precise, President Obama has not yet been at the helm of state for one year, as he took office on January 20th 2009. The time between the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November, when elections are held, and January 20th, the traditional date of inauguration of a newly-elected US president, is thought of as the victorious candidate's "honeymoon." However, as mentioned by The New York Times on the morning following the Illinois senator's election victory, "it is not time for Obama to rest on his laurels."

"No one, before Barack Obama, has taken the White House Oval Office at such a challenging period; historical parallels could be drawn, perhaps, only with Lincoln's accession to power prior to the Civil War, or Roosevelt's inauguration during the Great Depression. The 47-year-old senator elected as president will be faced with the tasks of conducting two wars, defending the country against terrorists and tackling complicated economic issues," the newspaper said.

Indeed, Obama pledged during his pre-election campaign to cope with the economic crisis, end the unpopular war in Iraq, close down the prison in Guantanamo and make medical aid and insurance benefits accessible for Americans. He was expected to bring about real change and wage a determined struggle against the "traditional elites." But, among other promises, Obama also vowed to recognize the "genocide of Armenians" and to increase military aid to Armenia… 

As many say, a year after election, Obama's approval rating has dropped by a third - from 83 percent to 52-53 percent. But even if U.S. elections were to be held today, even under the European electoral system (as we know, Americans vote in each state for a party list of electors who then elect the president), this rating would secure an Obama victory in the first round. But many believe that his current rating is one of the lowest for a president since World War II.

Obama has not succeeded in pulling the troops out of Iraq or turning around the situation in Afghanistan, and the process of closing down Guantanamo is stalling. In addition, the first anniversary of the new president's election coincided with a tragedy at a military base in Texas: a terrorist plot may be behind the shooting spree unleashed by military psychiatrist, Major Malik Hassan. 

Certainly, Americans are used to the fact that there is a difference between pre-election pledges and actual policies. Also, there could be some logic in the view that too many hopes, often unrealistic, were pinned on Barack Obama, and that he just could not realise them. But, as reluctantly admitted even by Russian analysts, Obama has managed to handle the economic crisis. Albeit at the cost of multi-billion injections into the economy, the measures taken by the Obama administration have been effective, and the US economy has begun to recover. One may say, of course, that the situation is changing by itself, and not due to government efforts, but statistics experts confirm that economic activity and consumer interest in the domestic market have increased. Besides, it has been clear since the Great Depression that the market cannot regulate everything on its own. 

Further, the current US administration has essentially jump-started the banking system, blocked a collapse of the US car-making industry and is supporting small businesses. One the eve of Obama's election anniversary and amid economic crisis, a young unemployed person became "hero of the week" after travelling throughout the country and finding temporary jobs - for a week - in each of the 50 US states. They were not the most prestigious or pleasant jobs, but he did find real employment.

Analysts accept that Obama has managed to carry out his main objective - to bring ministers and leaders together to create a united team which is working determinedly and in concert. But first and foremost, he has made the private sector accept responsibility, as "the war on bonuses" is still remembered by many.

However, still "stalling" is Obama's key pledge - the reform of medical insurance; it is opposed by many, including not only the insurance companies, but also many in the middle class who are unwilling to share their "insurance limits" with those who would gain medical care free-of-charge under Obama's scheme. Obama's opponents are on the verge of accusing the president of "socialism", which is considered a political "profanity" in the U.S. At the same time, the challenges of the healthcare reform are angering Obama's most ardent supporters.

It is even more difficult to evaluate the success of President Obama's foreign policy. It is widely believed that foreign policy is not of great interest to US voters. However, it was foreign policy rhetoric that gained victory for Jimmy Carter, then governor of rural Georgia, over President Gerald Ford in their race to the White House. And it was a successful foreign policy that made Ronald Reagan unbelievably popular and, against the backdrop of this success, his Vice-President, President Bush Sr. won the succeeding election.

In any case, many placed hopes on an Obama victory for a change in the outside world's attitude towards the United States, given that during the eight-year presidency of President Bush Jr. anti-American sentiment had reached unprecedented levels. Moreover, Obama could relate - more than practically all of his opponents in the White House race - to Muslims, Africans and the people of south Asia (he had lived in Indonesia for several years)…The Illinois senator had pledged to defuse tension and find "a new approach" to Iran; he had criticized the Bush-proposed missile defence programme and promised a breakthrough in the Middle East conflict.

Many believe that Obama's address at Cairo University was that very long-awaited message to the Muslim community, especially considering that there is obviously a new strategy aimed at improving the image of America in Islamic states; some analysts are even inclined to view Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to Kazan in this context. And, most importantly, not a single previous US president had won the Nobel Peace Prize less than a year after being elected. Well, actually, most analysts believe Obama received this award too early, given that his record does not include tangible foreign policy achievements, so far. 

Unfortunately, no breakthrough has been achieved in the Middle East conflict: the League of Arab States had to conclude, following Secretary Clinton's visit to Egypt, that US efforts had failed to foster positive results in the peace process. Talks with Iran have also failed to yield tangible results, so far. Even the promised "reset" of relations with Russia has turned out to be far less successful than seemed possible when Secretary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pressed that symbolic button, translated into Russian as "overload" instead of "reload." The withdrawal of the Bush-backed missile defence system painfully offended Poland and the Czech Republic and undermined confidence in the U.S., as well as failing to significantly appease Moscow, which is still ready to draw to its side anyone - from Gaddafi to Chavez - in order to compose a sharp rejoinder to Washington. 

It is actually too early, after a year of this presidency, to draw final conclusions and far-reaching predictions. And it is quite possible that President Obama will be able to turn the situation around in the near future, especially given that one year is not always enough to realize political initiatives, in particular those on a global scale.