A SECRET SHROUDED IN MYSTERY

The visit to Moscow by Armenia's leader, Serzh Sargsyan, has evidently not been crowned with the awaited success, since, if the talks had been successful, Yerevan would not have kept that quiet. Even though the meeting of the two presidents took place behind closed doors, information would definitely have seeped out to the Armenian press about "a victory for Armenian diplomacy".

Yerevan bustling to and fro

A great deal is indicated by the fact that Sargsyan asked to pay his respects to his Russian counterpart [President Vladimir Putin] literally immediately after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov paid a visit to Baku. The secret talks between the Russian foreign minister and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev were perceived in Yerevan as an alarming signal. Armenian experts were of the opinion that the Baku talks, at which the Nagornyy Karabakh peace settlement was discussed, had ended to Azerbaijan's advantage.

Russian political scientists did not rule out either that Sergey Lavrov might offer President Ilham Aliyev new, more advantageous proposals regarding a settlement of the conflict in Nagornyy Karabakh. What is more, at the time of the visit to Baku the situation on the line of contact between the troops had considerably deteriorated. Undoubtedly, owing to the absence of precise information, any version stems from conjectures and assumptions. The outlines of the new scenario regarding a settlement of the long-drawn-out conflict will possibly become obvious in time. But, at the present time, the standpoint of Russia which does not wish to have conflicts on its own frontiers and the stepping up of efforts to resolve them, can be precisely traced.

Having one's cake and eating it

Judging by the lull after the meeting of the Russian and Armenian leaders, Serzh Sargsyan was not promised any kind of fateful political and financial bonuses in the Kremlin. On the contrary, he was reminded yet again about the unfulfilled commitments that Armenia had signed up to when it joined the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU].

You see, essentially even after it had joined the Eurasian Economic Union, Serzh Sargsyan's regime kept on paying lip service to the West, trying to have its cake and eat it. For the moment, Russia is turning a blind eye to Sargsyan's motions towards Europe since his state of play completely suits the Kremlin.

In Armenia itself they believe that the main benefit from membership of the Eurasian Economic Union has been obtained by the ruling clan which does not miss an opportunity to demonstrate its own willingness to be a lackey. When Armenia joined the Eurasian Union the Armenian public's expectations of  what they would get from Moscow grew, but, as a result, the view strengthened that membership of the new union did not improve the life of ordinary Armenians in any way. Correspondingly, anti-Russian sentiments increased, which were crowned with protests not only in [the capital] Yerevan, but in the provinces as well.

In actual fact, membership of the Eurasian Economic Union opens up new opportunities to Armenia in the form of foreign loans and access to labour markets, but at the same time it obliges them to honour certain commitments, including in the sphere of customs tariffs, production standards and so forth. The most sober-minded representatives of the Armenian political establishment are well aware that no-one except Russia needs Armenia with its numerous problems either today or in the next century either.

Do as the boss says

It is hard to imagine what S. Sargsyan asked the Russian leader for and what commitments he signed up to this time. The Armenian press has produced sensational reports on this, but one of them is that Vladimir Putin purportedly "asked" Serzh Sargsyan to back Russian interests regarding a number of issues. They say that it is precisely for this reason that in [the Belarusian capital] Minsk Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan called upon his colleagues in the EAES to go over to settling accounts in Russian currency.

The Armenian press has further written that, allegedly after Sargsyan's visit, it was learned that the head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, had made a trip to Armenia. Everyone knows that Aksyonov is not received anywhere in the world, but a trip to at least one foreign country might legitimise his status. What is interesting is that President Putin allegedly insistently asked that Aksyonov should be accorded a fitting reception in Armenia. 

The further they go, the bigger it gets. Armenian analysts have put forward a fresh hypothesis, according to which President Putin has allegedly taken the decision to boost the Russian presence in Syria. Moscow had to get the consent of Sargsyan for the use of Armenian territory, including its aerodromes. Now, in Yerevan they are afraid that the country which was faced with the prospects of joining the coalition against the "Islamic State" terrorists (that would in their view lead to a strengthening of Armenia's sovereignty) may turn into a real adversary of the USA and NATO. The prospects for doing a deal, if it had cropped up, the Armenian experts now see as missed since a turn of events like this will not afford Armenia anything except confirming her role as a vassal state. 

 Serzh Sargsyan himself does essentially recall that he is not in any kind of position to change Moscow's politics, and Armenia is just an outpost which has obtained certain preferential treatment in the form of discounted loans for renewing its military arsenal and reductions in the price of Russian gas. His last visit to Moscow should be regarded in this context as well.