DISASTER OVER SINAI

Given the current situation in the Middle East, the crash of the Russian plane in the Sinai Penin-sula raises many questions. The theory about a technical fault put forward in the first hours after the tragedy began to seem less and less likely with the emergence of a number of facts pointing to a terrorist attack. This was indirectly confirmed by the Russian authorities themselves who suspended flights to Egypt and began to evacuate Russian tourists on special flights separately from the luggage.

So was it a terrorist attack?

The A321 plane of Kogalymavia, bound for St. Petersburg from Sharm el-Sheikh on 31 October, crashed 20 minutes after take-off in the north of the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. All 224 people on board (217 passengers, including 25 children and seven crew members) were killed. Most of the victims were Russians returning from a holiday. There were also four Ukrainian citizens and one passenger from Belarus.

There were still no official comments on the results of the decoding of the "black boxes" as the magazine went to press. The Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) said that the A321 disintegrated in the air. The wreckage and the remains of the victims were scattered over a large area, but footage from the air shows that the plane fell almost vertically down. Naturally, the first theory about the disaster was a technical failure, especially as immediately after the crash conflicting evidence started coming in - the crew reportedly contacted air traffic controllers in Cyprus and sent distress signals to terrestrial services. Experts recalled that the 18-year-old A321 liner damaged its tail in an incident at Cairo airport in 2001 and the damage could have led to metal fatigue cracks, so the plane just fell apart in the air. It is no secret that many planes carrying out charter flights are worn out. Later, however, it became known from various sources that there was no SOS signal and the flight was taking place in normal mode, and this means that the accident occurred very quickly and unexpectedly for the crew.

Thus, a terrorist attack became the main theory. One of the first to announce this was the United States - first, some sources cited US intelligence and second, CBS reported that a US satellite registered a thermal flash over Sinai, and finally, experts of the American analytical agency Stratfor voiced suspicions about an explosive device on the plane. Even US President Barack Obama found it necessary to speak out on this issue, noting the likelihood "that there was a bomb on board". British Prime Minister David Cameron and the Israeli defence minister agreed with Obama.

According to British intelligence, the organizer could be the Egyptian preacher Abu Osama al-Masri, who calls himself "Emir of Islamic State in the Province of Sinai" and is the leader of the group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis. In 2011, after the fall of Hosni Mubarak's regime, al-Masri's group, linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and consisting mainly of Bedouins, became the largest active jihadist cell in the region and swore allegiance to Al-Qa'eda, and in late 2014, they oriented themselves to Islamic State and announced the creation of the Sinai Vilayat. So it was al-Masri who posted a message on the Internet claiming responsibility for the terrorist attack.

And the theory that the airliner could have been hit by a missile from the ground, as some British tabloids wrote, was gradually discarded even though British and Israeli pilots of civil aircraft earlier announced that their aircraft had been targeted by MANPADS from the ground. The Daily Mail, citing informed sources, wrote that a British plane carrying 189 tourists was nearly hit by a missile while landing at Sharm el-Sheikh on 23 August. It was claimed that the Russian airliner was out of range for the Islamists, and furthermore, no traces of external impact seem to have been found on the wreckage of the ship. Experts are inclined to believe that the bomb was brought on board. Some media quote "sources" as saying that the "black boxes" recorded the sound of an explosion. Moreover, more than 20 passengers sitting in the rear of the aircraft have "blast injuries". Since none of the dead passengers and crew members appears to be a suicide bomber, American intelligence agencies believe that terrorists infiltrated the staff of the airport in Sharm el-Sheikh or unauthorized persons were allowed to approach the plane. It was no secret to anybody that Sharm el-Sheikh airport had serious security problems. The theory about a bomb in the luggage is also indirectly confirmed by the fact that immediately after the first suspicions, Britain, the Netherlands, France, Lithuania and Germany suspended flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. On 6 November, Russia completely suspended flights to Egypt, and a decision was made to evacuate tourists who are already in Egypt with the help of the Russian military and with hand luggage only. FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov gave relevant recommendations to Putin.

Tourist as an element of politics

At the same time, Russian Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov, who heads a government commission to investigate the causes of the tragedy, said that neither Russia nor Egypt have reliable data that it could be a terrorist attack. Only Russian Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev admitted that the plane crashed due to a terrorist attack. It seems that the Kremlin is dragging its feet - probably to ensure that the initial shock from the disaster goes away. Russian media have suggested that Putin will speak thoroughly on this issue during his annual address to the Federal Assembly to be held in early December. In the meantime, domestic opponents of the Russian authorities, who believe that the Kremlin embroiled the country into "another Afghanistan" and there are already civilian casualties, have taken advantage of the hot topic - it turns out that Putin is clearing Syria from terrorists, but is unable to defend his own citizens. The resentment of Russians who lost their holiday goes well with their arguments. Egypt is the second most popular foreign destination for Russian citizens. Over the past year alone, three million Russian tourists have been there. In winter there is no alternative to Egypt as a destination for a low-cost beach holiday, as other options are much more expensive. Several million people who are dissatisfied with the fact that they have been deprived of the only affordable warm sea may be a tempting field for propaganda work, especially when ordinary Russians are beginning to understand that those who make decisions can afford to holiday virtually anywhere and anytime. But the Kremlin does not seem to be afraid of that. A meeting between Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev and deputy prime ministers, according to the media, discussed not only the ban on Russian flights to Egypt, but also the possible cancellation of air links with a number of other countries. On 12 November, RIA Novosti reported that the Federation Council supports the proposal to ban flights of Russian tourists to Turkey and Tunisia and believes that the flow of tourists can refocus on domestic resorts.

In turn, fans of conspiracy theories believe that the theory about a terrorist attack is more advantageous to the United States: it will help involve Russia in the war in the Middle East even more deeply, after all how can the most powerful ruler according to Forbes tolerate this? "This is clearly revenge on Russia over Syria," many Western publications repeat. For example, The Guardian wonders: "Will Putin now intensify the actions of the Russian forces in Syria or focus on negotiations?" "The air campaign in Syria has turned Russians into a new target for extremist groups in the Middle East," The New York Review of Books said. The Moscow Carnegie Centre concludes that the disaster over Sinai broke "the Russian propaganda machine". "If it is proved that Islamic State is responsible for the crash of the Metrojet plane, the most natural reaction from Putin will be to accelerate the pace of the Syrian campaign in revenge," Newsweek says. On the other hand, the attack can be seen as proof that Russia's actions in Syria are successful - the terrorists are fleeing and trying to answer, so they have been badly hurt. But then it turns out that Russia cannot leave Syria now and therefore ... it is "stuck".

Or maybe the aim was Egypt?

By the way, despite the confession of al-Masri, who appeared on a recording of very poor quality, the way the terrorist attack was implemented raises questions. A bomb secretly taken into a plane is not the style of Islamic State or even al-Qa'eda. Islamic State likes show executions and death shows with executioners in disguise, when everything is public, when they can record the suffering of victims and then make a video clip for the Internet. A plane crash happens quickly and does not leave any spectacular evidence other than smoking rubble and "black boxes" that can be accessed only by experts. As far as Al-Qa'eda is concerned, they usually used suicide bombers and put forward demands. It is possible that the world has seen a new tactic of terrorists when they act in different directions at once.

This conclusion comes from the fact that in addition to the Russians, the Egyptians are even less willing to have the theory about a terrorist attack confirmed. The whole world is talking, first of all, about the failure of local security services, and secondly, Egypt received a severe blow to the tourism industry, which is one of the major sources of revenue for the country. Of course, terrorist attacks have occurred in the past too - for example, in hotels in Taba and Sharm el-Sheikh in 2004 and 2005. In 2014, militants from Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis blew up a bus carrying Korean tourists in Sinai. But this time everything is much more serious and it is unlikely to be resolved soon. The tourist flow fell into decline after the "Arab Spring" of 2011, and then the place of the British and Germans who feared the Middle East revolution was successfully occupied by Russians. Now a big question mark is hanging over the future of the resorts. Thus, there is a natural question - who did the attack in Sinai target: tourists, who should not holiday in the Province of Sinai, Russia or Egypt? Now Sinai, the southern part of which is a world famous resort, risks becoming a haven for terrorists. According to some, they are starting to flock here from Syria, where it feels uncomfortable under Russian bombs. There may be new recruits from the local population who will lose their earnings without tourists. Perhaps, it is even part of a plan to deprive the Maghreb countries of its tourist business, because the tourism sector in Tunisia, where Islamic State terrorists killed 38 tourists on a beach in the resort area of El Kantaoui in Sousse - mostly British nationals - was also seriously damaged this year.

Terrorist attacks can move to mainland Egypt, which is still unable to recover from the litany of Maidans and coups and is surrounded by unstable areas that constantly support terrorism with human resources and weapons - Sudan, Libya and the Gaza Strip. Despite the fact that the Egyptian army is pretty strong with a strong air force and annual aid from the United States, Cairo's anti-terrorist operations in Sinai have no desired effect. The situation deteriorated after the overthrow of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 and Muhammad Mursi in 2013. It is impossible to totally knock the Islamists out of the mountain areas of the peninsula and completely block the border with the Gaza Strip, as well as with Libya, from where weapons such as MANPADS and anti-tank systems are coming. So the defeated factions recover every time. On 12 November, nine people were killed in an attack in the town of El Arish in North Sinai Province - the terrorists targeted a police station, but a residential house was damaged. Meanwhile, terrorists in the Sinai also threaten another significant source of income for Egypt - the Suez Canal. The strengthening of militants on the peninsula, especially in the northern part of it, is a direct threat to Israel. Ansar Bayt al-Mekdam committed sabotage on several sections of a pipeline from Egypt to Israel, fired at Eilat and penetrated the territory of Israel.

Post scriptum...

Speaking of Sinai, it is impossible not to mention one thing - UN peacekeepers have been on the peninsula since 1979. Their function is to monitor compliance with the agreements concluded between Egypt and Israel. The peacekeeping mission involves more than 1,600 people - representatives of 12 countries, including Australia, Britain, Canada and the United States. Recently, the Pentagon decided to send an additional 75 troops to the Sinai Peninsula to protect the peacekeepers who are also suffering ... from terrorist attacks. The peacekeepers, who need to be protected and supplied with all the necessary stuff (while the Egyptian army, confronting terrorists, is complaining about poor infrastructure on the peninsula), are the clearest example of the blatant ineffectiveness of international efforts to combat terrorism. We can draw only one obvious conclusion from this - the passengers of the Russian airliner are certainly not the last victims among the civilian population and tourists.