BETWEEN LIGHT AND DARK

Crimea has once again become the epicentre of the Russia-Ukraine confrontation. The current aggravation points to further distancing between Moscow and Kiev, thereby confirming the precariousness of the peace agreements reached within the framework of Ukrainian settlement.

On the night of 22 November, Crimea was left without electricity as a result of a blow-up of four power transmission lines (PTL), following which a state of emergency was introduced on the peninsula. To ensure uninterrupted power supply to Crimea, redundant power sources were used, but they could only provide half the peninsula's needs.

To overcome the energy blockade of Crimea, Russia's Energy Ministry is taking steps to speed up the commissioning of a power bridge to the peninsula, which Russia declared its territory in March last year. Meanwhile, Ukrainian specialists have also got involved in emergency recovery work on the damaged overhead lines. However, Russia's reaction to the de-energizing of Crimea suggests that Moscow regards the Ukrainian authorities as the main culprit of the accident.

Moscow's official position is that Crimea has been deprived of electricity as a result of an act of terrorism. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "these events could not have taken place" without "silent approval" of the Ukrainian leadership. Criticizing the Ukrainian government, Putin said: "They are talking about the need to reinstate Crimea as part of Ukraine but actually only victimize people, which works in the opposite direction".

The Crimean parliament put the blame for the energy blockade of the peninsula on Kiev, too. Meanwhile, the Crimean Directorate of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has opened a criminal case based on the fact of undermining the PTL in Kherson Region of Ukraine, which led to a blackout of Crimea.

Russia is convinced that the subversive action in Crimea was perpetrated by the Ukrainian nationalist movement Right Sector and the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people headed by Ukrainian MP Mustafa Dzhemilev. Earlier, these organizations called for a food blockade of Crimea. In September this year, Right Sector activists blocked the delivery of food to Crimea and began an indefinite food blockade of the peninsula. After de-energization of Crimea, these same forces took part in preventing repairmen from getting to the damaged PTL towers. Only on the third day following the blasting of the power lines, Mustafa Dzhemilev told the public that he had instructed Lenur Islyamov, a coordinator of the "energy blockade" of Crimea, to allow maintenance crews to begin reconstruction work in the Kherson region.

Russia has responded to the electricity blackout of Crimea by terminating coal supply to Ukraine. According to Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak, this measure will have no effect in the short term, since Ukraine has coal reserves and its own production. Hence, Moscow counts on long-term consequences of the imposed coal blockade. And there is good reason for that, as Ukrainian experts say that the reserves of coal available to Kiev will not last for more than a month. According to statistics, the import of coal from Russia decreased by 31 per cent in the first nine months of 2015, reaching 3.7m metric tons. But the problem for Ukraine also lies in the fact that a significant share of coal coming into the country is delivered from the rebellious "people's republics" of Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR), which are plainly controlled by Russia. Not surprisingly, Ukrainian experts admit that if Russia blocks coal deliveries from territories in eastern Ukraine, which are not controlled by Kiev, then already in early January one can expect fuel shortages, and consequently, lack of electricity. A similar situation last year resulted in rolling blackouts throughout Ukraine. A solution to that problem was found at the negotiation table with Moscow, DPR and LPR. In the meantime, there is no room for negotiations at the height of Crimea's blockade. Moreover, in response to Moscow's "retaliatory measures", Kiev is giving its own "reply".

Thus, the Ukrainian government has decided to temporarily ban freight traffic to Crimea. Such a proposal was made by President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, who explained it by the need to "protect the interests of the Crimean Tatars who are suffering brutal pressure from the Russian authorities". The head of Ukraine raised this topic at his meeting with the foreign ministers of Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands: "Crimea is the territory of Ukraine. We shall protect the legitimate interests of the Crimean Tatar people and all the Ukrainians living in the occupied territories. And we hope that our international partners will continue to adhere to the policy of non-recognition of Crimea's occupation by the Russian Federation".

At the same time, Ukraine banned, as of 26 November this year, all Russian airlines without exception from flying through its airspace. The reason for this decision was a "worsening military and political situation", or so it was stated. With this in mind, Kiev argues that it is necessary to "prevent possible provocations in the airspace of Ukraine". While describing Ukraine's ban on transit flights over its territory as a further confirmation of the destructive position of the Kiev authorities, Russia has nevertheless made it clear that Kiev's decision is of little relevance to Russian civil aviation, as most of the Russian airlines have ceased flying through the airspace of Ukraine for security reasons after the disaster of the Malaysian Boeing near Donetsk.

The growing divergence between Russia and Ukraine can also be seen in Russia's intention to impose a food embargo and to cancel, as of 1 January 2016, duty-free treatment of a large number of goods supplied from Ukraine due to the entry into force of the economic part of the Association Agreement with the EU. In turn, Kiev has begun looking for new markets for Ukrainian products, in particular in Africa and Asia, which has openly been stated by Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine Aivaras Abromavicius. Thus, the downward trend in the Russian-Ukrainian trade turnover is set to continue, and this despite the fact that its indicators have already fallen significantly of late. Trade with Russia currently accounts for only 12.4 per cent of Ukraine's exports.

Thus, the Russia-Ukraine confrontation, where Crimea is only one of the focal points, is growing in intensity. The energy blockade of the peninsula as well as reciprocal "countermeasures" taken by Moscow and Kiev graphically demonstrate the difficulty of the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine being maintained within the framework of various international formats with much effort. Of course, this reality significantly hinders the possibility of a durable solution to the most tragic part of the Russian-Ukrainian standoff - the armed conflict in Donbass.