AGGRAVATION IS YET TO COME

The conflict between Russia and Turkey over the downing of a Russian bomber Su-24 by the Turkish Air Force on 24 November continues to escalate. There was no meeting between Putin and Erdogan on the sidelines of the Paris climate change conference. According to information from various sources, it was Putin who refused to engage in a dialogue. Earlier he had also declined to communicate with Erdogan on the phone. Based on Putin's address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, he has nothing to discuss with his Turkish counterpart because the head of the Kremlin is convinced that "probably, only Allah knows why they (the Turks) did it".

The first Russia-Turkey direct high-level contact after the incident was a meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries, Sergey Lavrov and Mevlut Cavusoglu, in Belgrade, on the margins of the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting on 3 December, but it also left no hopes. Lavrov said that Moscow "has not heard anything new". In turn, Cavusoglu again outlined Ankara's position and added that his country had once again expressed its regret over the loss of the Russian pilot and offered condolences to his family. Indeed, Turkey handed over the body of the pilot of the downed Su-24 to the Russian side solemnly and respectfully - in a coffin covered with the national flag of the Russian Federation, accompanied by a guard of honour. However, Moscow demands from Ankara an official apology, not regrets. But Turkey refuses to do so, emphasizing that it acted in the national interest and within the framework of international law. According to the Turkish side, a diplomatic solution to the conflict should be found. Cavusoglu also called for the establishment of military communication channels between Turkey and Russia in order to prevent incidents. The Kremlin responded that the already existing military channels had not worked all the same; therefore, it was decided to suspend all military contacts. Fortunately, in his address to the RF Federal Assembly, Putin stressed that Russia "does not intend and will not rattle the sabre" against Turkey.

Cheap oil is expensive

Meanwhile, Moscow has accused Turkey of other vicious links with terrorists. At a press briefing, Russia's Defence Ministry presented satellite images showing columns of oil road tankers. According to the Russian military, the oil is pumped from oil fields in Syria and Iraq by IS terrorists and then smuggled into Turkey. Moreover, Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov reiterated what had already been said by Putin and Prime Minister Medvedev - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and members of his family were involved in illegal oil supplies from the Syrian fields. A day before, speaking at the climate change conference in Paris, Putin said that the attack by the Turkish Air Force on the Su-24 could have been motivated by the desire to secure oil supplies from the IS territory to Turkey.

However, the following day Sherko Jawdat, Chairman of the Energy Committee of Iraqi Kurdistan's Parliament, who represents the Iraqi Kurds, said that oil road tankers shown in the pictures published by the Russian Defence Ministry had nothing to do with the IS and belonged to the Kurdish Autonomy. "Our Ministry of Natural Resources earlier announced that hundreds of oil road tankers deliver oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey," Jawdat said.

Meanwhile, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu noted that currently the whole world keeps an eye on the border between Turkey and Syria, and any movement in this area is visible to all countries. According to him, Turkey will never make such a thing of which it is accused (by Russians). "This is ethically impossible and generally unrealistic," the Turkish prime minister said.

Moreover, according to the Turkish side, Russia, while accusing the Turks, is itself involved in oil trade with the IS. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the biggest buyer of oil from the IS is Syrian businessman George Haswani who has Russian citizenship.

Erdogan reiterated that he would resign if the information about his ties with terrorists was confirmed. "At the same time, I am asking esteemed Putin, would he stay?" Erdogan raised the question with journalists.

It is now not clear who is to resign, while the parties already directly accuse each other of having links with terrorists. The Russian Defence Ministry believes that Turkey has been transferring to Syria militants and weapons for them for a long time and on a regular basis. Announcing the suspension of the visa-free regime with Turkey, Sergey Lavrov said that "there has been established traffic of militants in different directions through Turkey". Turkey denies the charges. "If they [Russians] have always had suspicions about the relationship between Turkey and the IS, why have these suspicions been made public only now?" Ahmet Davutoglu asks.

Sanctions to the detriment of all

Anyway, on 28 November, Vladimir Putin signed a decree imposing sanctions against Turkey, which placed a ban or restriction on the import of certain types of Turkish goods (from chicken and flowers to citrus and salt) into Russia as well as on the activities of organizations under the Turkish jurisdiction. Starting from 1 January 2016, it will be prohibited to employ Turkish citizens for certain types of work in the Russian Federation. In addition, the decree provides for a ban on charter air transportation between Russia and Turkey, while tour operators are advised to refrain from working in the direction of Turkey. Russia has frozen major energy projects such as the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, through which Russian gas was supposed to go to Turkey under the Black Sea, and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, the construction of which by Rosatom is already under way. Much of humanitarian cooperation has been closed down - Russian universities announced the termination of cooperation with Turkish universities, negotiations on holding Year of Culture reciprocally in Turkey and Russia in 2017-2018 were cancelled, and the Russian-Turkish Research Centre in Moscow was closed. Moreover, Minister of Culture of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky sent a government telegram to the heads of the republics of Altai, Bashkortostan, Sakha (Yakutia), Tatarstan, Tuva, and Khakassia about the need to end contacts with the International Organization of Turkic Culture (TURKSOY). The only thing which is reassuring but, at the same time, inconsistent with all these actions is Putin's statement that "the kind, hard-working and talented people of Turkey should know that Russia does not put an equals sign between them and part of today's ruling elite (of Turkey) that is directly responsible for the deaths of (Russian) soldiers in Syria".

The Russian side felt insulted by Turkey's actions and resorted to sanctions, despite the obvious damage to its own interests in the form of possible worsening of food inflation, a shock to national businesses or public discontent. For example, a ban on the sale of trips to Turkey was introduced just three weeks after the ban on the sale of trips to Egypt. Opposition-minded publications argued that the Kremlin had decided for Russians, where they should holiday and what they should eat. But Putin was unforgiving: in his address to the Federal Assembly, he said that this was the bare minimum and "the Turkish authorities will not get off with just tomatoes and restrictions for construction companies for the murder of the Russian pilots".

Turkey, of course, seeks to minimize the negative impact of Russia's sanctions. This involves not only seeking new consumers for products and services that previously went to the Russian market, but also, and above all, seeking a safety net in case of possible restrictions on the supply of Russian gas - an option that is beginning to be considered by the Russian expert community. Erdogan said that his nation was "accustomed to suffering" and, if anything happened, would be able to do without fuel supplies from Russia "by the grace of God". Prime Minister Davutoglu was more realistic in his approach to the problem and said that he did not expect the termination of Russian gas supplies to Turkey because "there are mutual obligations governed by international law" as "this is not shuttle trading where one can cut supplies whenever one wishes". Moscow will have to pay a penalty in the event of non-compliance with the terms of the agreement. In 2014, Gazprom exported 27.4bn cubic metres of gas to Turkey; therefore the termination of deliveries is unprofitable, first of all, for Russia, as Turkey is its second largest market of natural gas, after that of Germany.

Nonetheless, Turkey is trying to secure itself against eventualities. For example, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Qatar, providing for the supply of liquefied gas. Furthermore, during his visit to Baku, Ahmet Davutoglu reached an agreement with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to accelerate the construction of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP) so as to launch it ahead of schedule, i.e., before 2018. This will enable Azerbaijan to start export of gas in even larger volumes, first to Turkey and then to Europe. "Turkey and European countries will gain access to the new alternative source, and this is beneficial to all," said President Ilham Aliyev, expressing his full support to Ankara. "We will continue to support each other and will stay close to each other in all issues," the president of Azerbaijan said in the context of cooperation between the two countries.

Davutoglu's visit to Baku was planned in advance, as the new head of the Turkish government traditionally makes his first visit to Azerbaijan. Of course, the hot topic of Syria and the issue of Russian-Turkish relations were also raised during the talks. Davutoglu said that Ankara chose to inform the president of Azerbaijan about the approaches and positions of Turkey because the parties would always discuss matters of mutual interest in a transparent manner.

"Those who think that they can put Turkey on its knees with economic sanctions are wrong," Davutoglu said, speaking in the Diplomatic Academy in Baku. According to the Turkish prime minister, Ankara is not going to impose restrictions on Russian citizens and believes in general that "those disgruntled at the application of economic sanctions to them should not apply such sanctions to others". Thus, Davutoglu highlighted Moscow's displeasure with the imposition of sanctions against it by the West. The head of the Turkish government recalled that in the times most difficult for Russia, Turkey did not join the economic sanctions against this country, and demonstrated the same position on the issue of sanctions against Iran. Davutoglu is convinced that economic sanctions do harm to both sides, and therefore continues to call on Putin to soften the tone of his statements and to meet.

Indeed, sanctions not only are a double-edged sword, but they also urge the side being punished to take countermeasures. It was at the time of the introduction of Russian sanctions that Turkey signed an agreement with China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia on transportation of goods from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. The parties also plan to start the transport of goods to Northern and Eastern Europe through Ukraine next year.

As for logistics countermeasures, media reports say that Russian vessels are facing problems in passing through the Black Sea Straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles; for example, they have to wait for a permission to enter the strait for a long time. It was also reported that the Russian Navy transport "Yauza" met with a Turkish submarine while passing through the Dardanelles. Suffice it to recall that along with providing trade lanes, the straits play an important role in the logistical supply of Russia's operation in Syria, and though merchant ships can pass under the flags of other countries, the naval warships will only go under the Russian flag. Technically, Turkey does not violate the Montreux Convention, everything is clean legally, but in practice, Ankara can create a lot of problems by playing for time or carrying out works or police operations. Besides, the passage through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles should be carried out along the route established by Turkish navigators.

It is noteworthy that such risks do not seem to stop Russia from arranging a new airbase in Syria at Shayrat Airport in the province of Homs. It is noted that the airport has a 3-km long main runway allowing it to receive aircraft of all types, and a secondary runway. According to experts, the new base is required because the existing Hmeymim airbase is located far from a new target of Russia and Assad's army - the development of operations in the southern and eastern parts of Syria, in the vicinity of Palmyra, and further eastwards, to Deir ez-Zor, which is a major oil-producing centre of the IS in Syria. Thus, it is most likely that an aggravation of the situation is yet to come. Bids of all stakeholders, as well as their actions and rhetoric, are only going to rise.