TWICE IN THE SAME RIVER

In Yerevan, there is another surge of "European hopes". But this time it comes from the representatives of EU countries accredited in Arme-nia. Thus, in the last days of the year, the charge d'affaires of the Kingdom of Sweden in Armenia, Marten Ehnberg, decided to talk about the importance of Armenia to Europe in an interview with NEWS.am. He expressed an opinion that Armenia is undoubtedly a European country. Armenia has a great human capital and potential, which may be close to Europe, including Sweden. According to him, Armenia has a very specific geographical location. "It is among many of the countries that are of interest to Europe. But Armenia itself has a lot of interesting features," Ehnberg said. According to the diplomat, Sweden has accumulated a lot of positive experience of cooperation with Armenia. "About 12,000 people of Armenian origin are living in Sweden. They make quite a significant contribution to the public life of the country. Armenia and Sweden maintain a very high level of political relations. Armenia has a huge potential, which we still have not implemented, and the framework agreement will help to do so," Marten Ehnberg said.

A couple of weeks ago, the Lithuanian ambassador to Armenia, Erikas Petrikas, decided to speak about the European prospects of this country. He assured the audience in Yerevan that the EU has not gone away and has never "buried" anything: the 3.5 years of talks with Armenia is a great time and great experience. And in general, according to him, Armenia has made great strides. "The negotiations, which began between Mrs Mogherini and Minister Nalbandyan on 7 December, are not something new, they are a continuation of our cooperation with Armenia. Lithuania has always been a friend of Armenia, has always been with Armenia and supports Eastern Partnership and Armenia's decision to find common ground. This is just a continuation of our cooperation," Erikas Petrikas said.

Let's explain what is at stake. On 7 December, Armenia and the European Union resumed talks on the preparation of a framework agreement. It is planned that it will cover a wide range of issues - from the economy and trade to security. And now representatives of the EU countries are making optimistic statements, would is quite logical.

However, this blissful picture is violated by one thing. About two or three years ago, Armenia similarly talked about "the brilliant European prospects" of the country and prepared to sign the association agreement with the European Union at the Vilnius summit of the EU. In parallel, Yerevan "mulled" the invitation to the EAEU. However, they probably realized that Yerevan should not even dream of European integration as almost all the prominent enterprises and infrastructure in Armenia was handed over to Russian companies for ownership. The calculation was much more cunning: Armenia was confident of its invaluable political value and had no doubt that Moscow and Brussels would arrange a kind of a political auction, offering Armenia different preferences, credits, etc. In reality, however, everything turned out to be much more prosaic. Europe was in no hurry to give Armenia presents. And Russia made it clear that the first step towards European integration would be the purchase of oil and gas at "European" prices. As a result, just before the Vilnius summit Yerevan chose to join the EAEU.

The reaction of the Europeans was, shall we say, very ambivalent. On the one hand, the then foreign minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt, wrote in his account in Twitter: "It seems Armenia breaks negotiations on a free trade agreement with the European Union and integrates with Russia instead. A 180-degree turn." On the other, in contrast to the same Ukraine represented by Yanu-kovych, whom Vilnius tried to persuade to change his mind and sign the agreement, they did not simply pay attention to Armenia.

It would seem that after the "police turn" in foreign policy that Armenia made in the autumn of 2013, it would be better for this country not to talk about "European" plans. And the present aggravation of relations between Russia and the West does not give Yerevan even a chance to sit on two chairs.

But, nevertheless, Yerevan me-dia have been reporting since the first week of December that Armenia and the EU are negotiating on the preparation of a new framework agreement that will replace the previous unsigned document. And EU ambassadors are once again talking about the Armenian "European prospects" as if there had been no "surprise", to put it delicately, from Armenia. So why are "Eurodiplomats" favouring Yerevan so much?

Things seem to be much simpler. In modern diplomacy, it is not customary to voice grievances, let alone use strong language: "How can one deal with you at all?!"

And even individual European officials do not really want to admit that Yerevan politicians simply played a trick on their "European partners". And finally, the EU will have to conclude at least some agreement with Armenia in any case - such as visas, taxation and cooperation in education ... Armenia, as well as Belarus, remain a member of the EU's Eastern Partnership programme, although they are members of the EAEU. But the programme itself is a kind of platform on which Brussels builds relations with its new eastern neighbours. How far its members are willing to promote their "European integration" - they have to decide themselves. In addition, to aggravate conflicts and express harsh assessments is not the style of modern European diplomacy. As a result, making sure that Yerevan has no intention of signing the already prepared documents, European officials, after a pause, stated: it's ok, we will now prepare a new document. The fine-sounding name "framework agreement" can certainly make an impression on the audience, but in fact, this term does not provide any special preferences for Armenia. Moreover, the head of the EU delegation in Armenia, Piotr Switalski, has already noted that Yerevan itself will have to decide what the scope and format of this cooperation will be. In short, the negotiations begin at zero. Also, Brussels is well aware that this "format" cannot move too far even theoretically. It was before 2013 that the negotiators were hopeful. Now Brussels is well aware that no real European integration should be expected from Armenia. So, European bureaucracy is once again putting a brave face on a sorry business.

Yerevan has its own calculations. It seems that they are trying to stage the same spectacle as the one ahead of the Vilnius summit. They are carefully hinting at Moscow that they may change their mind and re-orient to Europe, if they do not receive more generous financial support from Russia, and are sending vague signals to Brussels that they might change their mind again if Brussels does not provide Armenia with, let's say, a loan or investment. But in reality, these political manoeuvres are unlikely to impress those who actually make decisions.