THE INTIMIDATION OF IRAN

On June 7, two groups of terrorists attacked the parliament building and the mausoleum of Imam Khomeini in Tehran almost simultaneously. One of the three attackers in the first group attacking the tomb was a suicide bomber. The guards killed the second assailant and could capture the third one alive.

Another four militants entered the Parliament's building disguised as women but were killed by the security forces shortly after that. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks, which left 17 civilians dead and 43 wounded.

We have interviewed a famous expert on Iran Yelena Dunayeva, senior researcher of the Centre for Near and Middle Eastern Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, on the organizers of terrorist attacks and unstable situation along the borders of Azerbaijan.

There are different views about the instigator of the terrorist attacks in Tehran. Who is the person most interested in destabilising the situation in Iran?

The Iranian media released a video apparently shot by the IS terrorists during the attack on the parliament. The Iranian special services concluded that the terrorists spoke in the North African dialect of the Arabic language. They were likely from Tunisia or Libya. And it seems that the attack was carried out by the terrorists of the Islamic State. The Iranian politicians believe that they were backed up by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Teheran openly accuses Saudi Arabia and notes that Riyadh had repeatedly pointed to the need to deploy military operations on Iranian territory. Iran considers the attack on the parliament and the shrine of Khomeini the first attack of the Saudis, which could be larger in extent but thanks to the vigilance of the Iranian special services, it was possible to prevent the third terrorist attack. Firstly, it was an act of intimidation of Iran. Apparently, the organizers of the terrorist attack had hoped to take a part of the Iranian society, which was dissatisfied with the Islamic regime, to the streets. This includes the Sunnis, ethnic and religious minorities. Thus, the attackers aimed to provoke internal unrest, destabilise the situation in the country, and create panic. The second reason is the pressure on Qatar. Iran believes that the problem with Qatar was created by Saudi Arabia provoked by the United States. It all began when the Emir of Qatar announced a desire of his nation to develop cooperation with Iran. Thus, the attackers also aimed at undermining the relations between Iran and Qatar. In fact, the terrorist attacks in Iran happened immediately after Qatar was accused of supporting terrorism.

Do you believe the armed Iranian opposition, Mojahedin-e Khalq, joins these events? This organisation has often resorted to terror, armed insurrections, attacks on Iranian military targets.

The Iranian secret services strongly pressure on the internal armed opposition. They track all the actions of Mojahedin-e Khalq. Currently the organisation is not as strong as it was in the 80s, when it could carry out large-scale anti-government actions. The social base of the mojahedin has noticeably diminished. Of course, they can try to rebuild military camps in the Kurdish regions of Iran, but they do not have support in the central part of the country.

Terrorism becomes an epidemic in countries, which suffer from the terrorist acts similar to what happened in Tehran. The attempts to stop the terrorists in France, Great Britain, and Turkey are in vain. Will Iran become a new arena of terrorism?

The security situation in Iran is somewhat different. Iranian authorities do much to prevent the terrorism from entering the country. The people in Iran are more vigilant and cautious in this regard. Having 30 years of experience behind the Iron Curtain, the Iranian society is suspicious of foreigners, especially those who are dressed inappropriately. The citizens can easily report any strangers photographing some areas in Tehran to the police or the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). There were many such cases. This helps the secret services a lot. Nevertheless, it is possible that we witness an increase of terrorist attacks in Iran as long as the international terrorist organizations manage to penetrate Iran. IRGC has repeatedly reported about the detained emissaries of terrorist organizations. Therefore, Iran will strengthen the protection of its borders.

What can be Iran's response?

I feel concerned about IRGC’s statement that they will avenge for each drop of the blood of the victims. At the same time, they have explicitly mentioned retaliation against Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel, which, according to the Iranians, support terrorists. Such sentiments in the Iranian society, given the tough stance of Riyadh, may lead to yet another armed conflict. Incidentally, Tehran and Riyadh are fighting each other, indirectly though, in a third country, Yemen. Saudis directly bomb the Houthi militia while Iran is implicitly involved in the war by helping the Houthis. A similar situation is in Syria. Part of the opposition fighting against Bashar al-Assad is sponsored by Saudi Arabia. The same events can repeat in Afghanistan, where al-Qaida is actively penetrating to and where the Taliban is under a strong influence of Saudis. But I hope that the mediation efforts of Turkey and other countries will reduce tensions and stop the escalation of confrontation. Incidentally, the Iranian politicians believe that all events in the Middle East are aimed at torpedoing the Chinese project of the transport and economic corridor “One belt – One way”, which is supposed to go through the territories of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran all the way up to the ports of Europe. In other words, an instability in the region will prevent the implementation of this project and will stop the advance of Chinese influence on Europe.

Tehran supports Shiite regions in Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, as well as the Alevites in Syria and Houthis in Yemen. Do you think the emergence of the so-called Shiite Arc provoked a response from the Sunnis and Salafis?

Iran is not obsessed with an idea of ​​Shiism and its promotion in other regions of the world. Even Imam Khomeini did not distinguish Shiism from the mainstream Islam in his works. Iran is constantly making attempts to come to religious and philosophical terms with the Sunnis. The goal is to stop further fragmentation between Shiites and Sunnis. Iran is not committed to a strategy of spreading Shiism throughout the world. Syria's problem is that it was the only Arab country that supported Iran in its war with Iraq. It was the very moment Tehran and Damascus began the close cooperation. The then leader of Syria, Hafez al-Assad, could not be considered a religious person. Again, the government of Iran does not maintain any Shiite theories to establish an individual living space.

What is the role of Israel, which quietly contemplates the events from outside?

Undoubtedly, a sharp anti-Iranian policy of the U.S. is largely inspired by Israel’s stance on Iran. We can partly agree that there is some truth in the fears of Israel. Whenever Iranian politicians shout “Death to Israel!” and inscribe “Let’s hit Israel!” on their missiles, this eventually raises concerns in Tel Aviv. The emotional factor plays an important role in both countries. However, despite Israel's rejection by Iran, there is an understanding that without a dialogue with Israel the stability and security in the Middle East is impossible.

How can events in Iran develop further?

Repeated acts of terrorism can destabilize the situation, but the attacks are unlikely in the short term. The terrorism in Iran is a product of external influence. The secret services of this country are capable of blocking the penetration of terrorism. However, the external powers including the Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel can unite with the Iranian opposition outside Iran and undermine the situation in the country. But the Syrian scenario of the civil war in Iran is not yet possible. The majority of Iranian population supports the ruling regime. Even the progressive pro-reform sections of the society believe that the religious-political leadership has a potential to reform the existing system. The religious structures maintain a very strong influence on the society, and provide large-scale social support to the population. This also helps to consolidate the various layers of the Iranian society under the current regime.

Armed opposition to Iranian power can happen at the peripheral province of Khuzistan, which is predominantly populated by the Arabs and is the main source of Iranian oil. Both the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are very closely cooperating there occasionally inspiring anti-government protests and actions. But this happens in a territory limited by Iran’s secret services. The insurgents can go no further beyond the IRGC cordon. The Arabs living there enjoy special indulgences like conducting their rituals, having own schools, etc. So, there are conditions for internal development but the secret services do not let them go beyond the defined limits.