THE TURKIC ALLIANCE

The results of the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan, which took place in Baku on July 19, may open a new page in the relations of Ashgabat not only with the Turkic states, but also with the EU countries.

The Turkmen leadership understands that without a stable energy and transport corridor towards Europe, it will be difficult to support the further growth of the Turkmen economy.

Ankara is interested in becoming an energy hub for the region. It strengthens the positions in the negotiation process with the leadership of the European Union amidst the tense discussion process on the Syrian conflict and Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia.

Since independence, the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have been slightly underpinned by the lack of progress on the issue of ownership of oil fields in the Caspian Sea. The success in the negotiations could not only significantly revitalize the development of the hydrocarbon fields but also become a decisive factor in finalizing the negotiation process on the legal status of the Caspian.

Preparation for the summit

The trilateral negotiation format of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan is the most optimal one for solving the problems of the three Turkic nations.

On July 19, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan Elmar Mammadyarov, Mevlut Cavusoglu and Rashid Meredov discussed the development of cooperation in the political, economic, energy, transport and humanitarian spheres, as well as the implementation of regional projects. However, the parties did not sign any bilateral or trilateral agreements after the meeting, which actually aroused great interest in the region.

Mr. Mammadyarov outlined the existing potential saying that the Azerbaijani gas will flow through TANAP to Turkey starting from the next year and that the Turkmen leadership showed interest in deliveries of Turkmen gas through the Southern Gas Corridor. As for the transport sector, the expansion of the Turkmenbashi port will be completed next year, after which the cargo transportation potential will increase to 25 million tons.

Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan Rashid Meredov said that there was a firm intention of the countries to hold a summit of the heads of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Turkey in Ashgabat by the end of the year, and the main objective of the meeting in Baku was to prepare for it. By the end of this year, it will be possible to expect the signing of a number of agreements with the participation of three presidents.

It is most likely that all three Turkic countries will prepare agreements on cooperation in the transport sector. Mevlut Cavusoglu said after the trilateral meeting that the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (BTK) would be used actively to develop cooperation in the transport sector between the Turkic states.

Corridor to the East

In parallel to the trilateral meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, the heads of the customs departments of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia held discussions in Baku. The Chairman of the State Customs Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (ASC) Aydin Aliyev, the First Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance of Georgia Dmitry Kumshishvili and the Minister of Customs and Trade of Turkey Bulent Tufekci signed the Joint Declaration on Expanding Trilateral Cooperation in Customs Issues. The document provides for the establishment of a permanent commission for the development of cooperation between the customs authorities of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia.

Furthermore, the Chairman of the State Customs Committee Aydin Aliyev and the Minister of Customs and Trade of Turkey Bulent Tufekci signed an agreement on the establishment of an electronic system for the exchange of information on road transit transport.

Before the planned summit in Ashgabat, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia will complete the construction of the BTK, and with the participation of the heads of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, the authorities of these countries responsible for economy will be able to sign relevant bilateral and trilateral agreements on the transit of goods to Turkmenistan and further to China and Afghanistan. It should be noted that the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi remains the closest in the Caspian Sea for the delivery of cargo from the Baku International Commercial Port (BITP) to the countries of Central Asia.

Turkmenistan can supply various products to Europe including cotton, oil products, chemical products, etc. In return, it can purchase European equipment and machinery. Turkmenistan is now competing with Kazakhstan to become a gateway to the countries of Central Asia, in which Ashgabat is clearly losing to Astana.

The Turkmen leadership will have to work hard to prove to the shippers from Turkey and Azerbaijan that the shortest route from BITP to Turkmenbashi becomes more competitive in the future for the transport of goods not only to Turkmenistan but also to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and China, than the more northerly port of Aktau in Kazakhstan.

Currently Kazakhstan remains the more attractive country for cargo transportation due to flexible tariffs and the ongoing activities to create a single Trans-Caspian international transport route, which attracts more transit cargo from Turkey to China and back.

The expansion of the capacity of the Turkmenbashi port to 25 million tons of cargo anually and the completion of the BTK route may allow Turkmenistan to become one of the leading transport hubs in Central Asia for the transport of goods from Turkey and Europe.

The signing of new agreements between the interested transport administrations and state companies with the participation of the presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will provide an opportunity to make full use of the transit potential of goods from Turkmenistan to the countries of Central Asia, Afghanistan and China.

Corridor to the West

The issue of Turkmen energy supplies to Europe will most likely be the main topic of discussions in Turkmenistan. It is also possible that the parties adopt a declarative statement by the Turkmen leadership in support of the TANAP (Trans-Anatolian) pipeline initiated by Baku and Ankara.

Logically, the next step in creating a regional gas infrastructure is the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which should become a continuation of the Southern Gas Corridor and transport Turkmen and later the Uzbek gas to Turkey and Europe. However, one cannot expect an agreement on this issue before determining the legal status of the Caspian Sea and receiving a green light from other littoral states, in particular Russia.

However, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan continue the cooperation on energy transit. For example, the transit of Turkmen oil and oil products to world markets using the Azerbaijani infrastructure. Ashgabat receives as much profit from its oil sales as from the natural gas sales. Over the past year, the volume of transit of Turkmen oil through the territory of Azerbaijan reached the record 4.3 million tons. Given the current tension of relations between Turkmenistan and Russia and the problems associated with the transit of Turkmen oil to Makhachkala, it is possible that Ashgabat decides to send another 1 million tons of Russian oil via Azerbaijan.

Turkmen oil is transported to world markets via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan export pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, and oil products are usually delivered to the Georgian port of Kulevi.

Turkmen gas can enter the European market without the Trans-Caspian pipeline through Azerbaijan, but only after the organization of production of liquefied gas. The Turkmen leadership has already announced large-scale projects to increase the production of liquefied gas under the State Program for the Development of the Oil and Gas Industry until 2030.

Of course, Turkey will actively lobby Turkmen projects to withdraw energy resources to world markets through the territory of Azerbaijan and then through SGC to Turkey and the EU countries.

There are still contradictions between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan related to disputable hydrocarbon fields in the Caspian Sea, but the participants of the forthcoming summit in Ashgabat will most likely prefer to go around sharp angles hoping to sign a document of the status of the Caspian Sea, which was agreed upon by 80%, according to the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister.

The success of the summit is predetermined

The meeting of the heads of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan at the end of 2017 will be significant, as in the past years, a lot of preparatory work has been done in the political, economic, energy, transport and humanitarian spheres, under which one can draw a line for the transition to a new stage of interaction.

The ongoing global developments urges the importance of establishing closer political and economic ties between the Turkic states. It is now important that the leadership of Turkey acts in unison with the Turkic countries for a more independent policy unfettered by the leading European countries and the United States.

In turn, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan understand that Turkey will actively support and protect the political and economic independence of these countries.

Accordingly, it is possible to develop not only economic and cultural issues in Ashgabat, but also a unified position of the three Turkic states on the most important political issues of the world agenda.