THREE-HEAD DRAGON OF THE MIDDLE EAST

The recent events in the Gaza Strip have once again put the Arab-Israeli conflict on the headlines of leading news agencies. A three-day military confrontation resulted in ten casualties and hundreds of people wounded on both sides of the conflict. Has Israel decided for another large-scale operation against the Arab radicals, it could have ended even worse.

It all started when Hamas began the rocket attacks in response to the killing by Israel of one of the commanders of Hamas's military wing. Israel responded with air strikes using combat aircraft. The world community froze in anticipation of another IDF ground operation, when we suddenly heard about a truce concluded between the conflicting parties thanks to the efforts of Egypt. But why did Israel refrain from another round of 'cleanup operation' in the area, and where, in general, are the roots of the Arab-Jewish contradictions?

Killer Moles

The main threat to Israelis, among other problems, comes from the Gaza Strip. Over the past 17 years, more than 15,000 rockets and mines have been fired from the Gaza Strip toward the Southern Israel, killing and wounding hundreds of civilians. Over the years, Qassams and other Arab missiles have become more sophisticated and expanded their coverage radius to 20 km. However, they have not become more accurate: 80% of all the missiles fall somewhere in the desert. During these years, in addition to air raids, Israel has already conducted at least three ground operations in the Gaza Strip. Usually, the IDF seizes the entire vital infrastructure of the Arab enclave, destroys rocket launch sites, cuts supply lines, but cannot capture the Hamas leaders: the most radical Islamists hide deep in the ground, literally retreating back in bunkers and tunnels. And this process goes on and on: as soon as the parties reach a truce, and the Israelis withdraw from the region, the militants get out from their bunkers having their Qassams by their side. Israel cannot obviously remedy the situation, which actually looks like an acute sinusitis, when, after cutting out the polyps, new ones grow in their place. Perhaps this explains why Israel did not launch another ground operation.

The situation finally ended with the resignation of Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the Russian-speaking community of Israel, as Minister of Defence. Known for his radical position, the politician was an ardent supporter of a large-scale military operation against Hamas.

"A truce cannot be interpreted other than a capitulation to terror," Lieberman said, going into voluntary resignation.

Hamas responded roughly in the same manner: "Lieberman’s resignation symbolizes Israel’s weakness in the face of Palestinian resistance." Now the 'moles' are actively strengthening their positions in the Gaza Strip and are building up cooperation with another terrorist organisation, Hezbollah.

Netanyahu vs Lieberman

Lieberman's withdrawal also meant the leave of his party Our Home Is Israel from the ruling coalition. He also called for extraordinary elections to the Knesset. This could lead to significant changes in the political situation of the country. The Jewish population demands that the government provides a durable solution to the Hamas problem and is ready to vote for that. Nevertheless, Netanyahu decided to continue the rapprochement of his government with the Arab world. After a visit to Oman, he is going to visit Bahrain in the near future. Administration of the Prime Minister stated that the visit "is the beginning of a new relationship and an indication that we are on the right path to correct the history." In addition to stopping the financing of terrorists, the strengthening of Israel’s relations with the Arab world may also provide additional dividends against Iran. The monarchies of the Persian Gulf are growing in dissatisfaction with the expansionist policies of Iran. Thus, the sudden 'falling in love' of Netanyahu with the Arab world is considered as an excellent counterbalance to the Iranian pressure.

Palestine as an object of international law

Another Muslim state that has close relations with Israel is Azerbaijan, although our country supports the desire of the Palestinian people to create their own state. The recent meeting of Palestinian ambassadors in Baku is a striking evidence of this fact. The principle of "de-occupation of territories" included in the Geneva Convention and confirmed by relevant resolutions of the UN is the main factor bringing both countries together.

In 1988, when Palestine declared its statehood, it was a state without territory (the whole territory of the country was under the control of Israel). Then in 1993, Israel agreed to transfer the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to the management of the newly created Palestinian National Authority. Autonomy lasted for almost twenty years: in 2012, the UN General Assembly granted Palestine "observer status in the Organization." This decision and the fact of having its own flag, coat of arms, anthem, executive and legislative bodies, as well as paramilitary structures make Palestine a subject of international law. Meanwhile, the UN regards the Palestinian territories as "occupied" by Israel, since the country does not have real sovereignty along the entire perimeter of its borders. In fact, most of the West Bank and East Jerusalem is under the control of Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), while the Gaza Strip has long been subject to the Hamas militants, who practically do not recognise Israel or the Palestinian government in Ramallah. Being constantly under internal and external threats, the young state is establishing economic and social and political life in the country, and also conducts successful work on its recognition in the foreign policy arena.

The modern history of Arab-Israeli confrontation in Palestine is over 70 years old. Prominent politicians from all over the world have tried to settle the conflict to no avail yet. It is not surprising because to achieve a more or less sustainable peace, it is necessary to solve three difficult problems.

First problem concerns illegal armed units causing serious threats to the security of both Israel and Palestine. It is no secret that from the very beginning of the Arab-Israeli confrontation, radical Islamic groups have set the only goal, which is to put an end to the Jewish state on the Palestinian territory. Over the past seventy years, the success of the Israeli army and the absence of unity in the Arab world have blown off some steam from the hotheads. Even the most hardcore radicals now take the Jewish state for granted, understanding that it is not going to leave the holy lands ever. Israelis have also managed to set the two leading military-political forces of the Palestinian people, Hamas and Fatah, at loggerheads. The confrontation of these organisations almost turned into an open civil war in 2007. Recognised as a terrorist organisation in many countries, Hamas not only fully controls the Gaza Strip, but also has a strong influence in the West Bank. Capitalising on social problems of the Arabs, Hamas influences all spheres of the country's life. The military wing of the organisation, the Izeddin al-Qassam Brigade, together with other radicals, undermine the shaky peace with Israel: they attack the IDF checkpoints, commit various terrorist acts, fire rockets at the territory of the Jewish state. Palestine, which does not have its own army, is not yet able to fight against the terrorists. Thus, the presence of the Israeli army in the Palestinian territories is quite natural, and the date of its withdrawal is indefinite.

Second problem is the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and refugees. After the 1967 war, Israel decided to strengthen its influence in these territories by building Jewish settlements. Currently, there are fifty settlements with more than half a million residents in total. Since not every Israeli agrees to live in a hostile environment, the population of the settlements is 90% Jewish Hasidic. They consider the West Bank as the territory of ancient Judea and Samaria, where most of the Jewish prophets lived and preached. IDF mostly tries to protect these enclaves in Palestinian lands. Israel also does not consider it necessary to resolve the issue of Palestinian refugees, which has been relevant since the days of the war of independence. Placed mainly in Jordan and Lebanon, the number of refugees has grown during the 'peaceful' years and currently exceeds 5 million people. The return of so many Arabs to Israel will drastically change the demographic situation in the country, so the attitude of the Israeli leadership is quite understandable. Meanwhile, several UN resolutions on the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict urge the return of refugees to their native land and the demolition of all Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Third problem of the Arabs and Jews is the dispute over Al-Quds. Palestine has been declared a secular state with its capital in East Jerusalem. For Muslims of the world, Jerusalem is a holy city, a place where the soul of the Prophet Muhammad ascended to paradise. The liberation of this holy city is the number one priority for all radical Islamic groups. On the other hand, Jerusalem is a holy city for the Jews too. They have maintained a spiritual connection with this city throughout 2,000 years of exile. At the end of the 1947-48 Independence War, the city was divided into Western and Eastern parts. After the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel established full control over Jerusalem, and in 1980 declared it "the one and indivisible capital of Israel." The UN recognised this decision as illegal and appealed to the world community to withdraw the embassies from the city. A recent attempt by the US President Donald Trump to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem provoked mass protests of Palestinians and the death of several dozen people. Today, Israel refuses to grant the Palestinians the right even to half of the holy city, as 67% of Israelis consider Jerusalem their “one and indivisible capital”. Security considerations also play an important role: the eastern part of the city is located on a hill. For a potential shooter, most of the city is open and reachable, including the Kotel - the main place of worship of Jews around the world.

There are many options to solve the problems related to the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The hopes for peace are not connected with common sense, but with the rapidly changing geopolitical configuration.