FRANCE ON FIRE

The Yellow Vests protest movement continues to shake France. President Emmanuel Macron had to declare the state of economic and social emergency in the country.

Test for Macron

The scale of the movement has become an unpleasant surprise for the authorities. Events that took place in Paris on December 1 demonstrated that the protesters were determined to realise their demands, primarily to abolish new tax tariffs on fuel planned by the government for 2019. By that time, the number of protesters wearing yellow vests similar to drivers in France required to keep them in their cars, to be worn in the case of a breakdown, had already reached 250-300 thousand. Not only have the number of participants and clashes with the police made the events remarkable, but also the destructive actions of vandals who joined the protesters. They were not shy of burning cars, plundering shops and even the decapitation of Napoleon’s marble statue in the Triumphal Arch.

The protests continued exactly a week later, on Saturday, December 8. The protesters called this the fourth action of the yellow vests movement. Besides their demands now clearly had a political claim. One of the leaders of the vests, Eric Drouet, called on his followers to march to the Élysée Palace in order to settle all issues at the residence of President Macron. Yet another leader of the protesters, André Lannee, elected two delegates to convey all their demands to the government, threating it of "smashing everything to pieces", if the demands were not met. These appeals thus shaped the ultimate goal of the radical part of the yellow vests: to force Macron to resign, to dissolve the parliament and to hold early elections.

In other words, the French society demonstrates a clear dissatisfaction with the policies of President Macron. According to polls, 72% of French nationals support the requirements of the yellow vests, who accuse Macron of pretending to be a king, like Marie Antoinette, who had once asked the population to eat cakes if they could not afford buying bread: "High gasoline price? Then buy electric cars," said her successor, Emmanuel Macron. According to the protesters, Macron is the president of the rich, a man from the Rothschild clan, who neglects the people and their problems. Even his overwhelming success in the 2017 presidential election is explained by political technologies, manipulation of public consciousness and the unwillingness of voters to allow the ultra-right National Front to come to the power, rather than Macron’s public support.

As expected, on December 8, the French leadership seriously feared the threat of a coup d'état. To counteract the protesters, authorities used police, armoured vehicles, and tear gas. But the protests also took place on the major streets of Paris, similar to the events which eventually forced General de Gaulle, the founder of the Fifth Republic, to resign half a century ago. The December riots in Paris provoked talks about the inevitability of a revolution that could lead to the creation of the Sixth Republic.

On December 8, 135 people were injured in Paris, including 17 policemen. According to the French Ministry of Interior, the number of protesters detained during protests across the country reached 1,726 people.

Even the partial concessions of the French government, which announced freezing of a rise in fuel taxes for six months just before the fourth action of the protests, could not prevent serious aggravation of the situation. Yellow vests refused to stop and demanded the increase of the minimum wage and pensions by 100 euros and 1,300 euros, respectively, pension age to 60 years, return of the previously abolished wealth tax, as well as subsidies to small towns and state enterprises.

It became obvious that President Macron, who had remained silent about the growing protest movement, which only increased the talks about his alienation from the people, uncertainty, and a lack of clear political strategy, should finally mark his position. On Monday, December 10, he made a televised address to the citizens of the country.

Macron said that the protesters' claims were justified; he admitted his own mistakes explaining this by his inability to explain to compatriots the essence of his position, to convince him of his desire to ensure their interests and needs. He declared a state of economic and social emergency in the country and promised that the minimum wage would be increased by 100 euros starting from 2019, and the premium that employees receive by the end of each year would not be taxed. At the same time, the president called on the protesters to calm down, saying that there would be no tolerance for violence. He refused to restore the so-called wealth tax, because, in his opinion, this had previously led to the situation when the country had less tax residents and, consequently, less investment in the economy. However, Macron said that the country's largest enterprises and wealthy citizens should help the state overcome the current crisis.

Perhaps, Emmanuel Macron’s televised message to the nation will somewhat defuse the situation in France. However, the reaction of the most influential supporters of the yellow vests gives reason to believe that the protests will not cease. Leader of the Indomitable France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, one of Macron’s rivals during the presidential elections, complained that the president decided to cease the violent popular outrage by "distributing money", but he overlooked the problems of the unemployed, part-time workers, pensioners, government employees and students. "The fifth action of the civil revolution in the country next Saturday will be a time of great mobilization of the people," Mélenchon warned.

Philippe Martinez, head of one of the leading trade unions of France, General Confederation of Labour, evaluated Macron’s promises as follows: "President did not understand anything. He does not want to understand the anger that has become even stronger in recent weeks. The door is thus closed, and we, along with the yellow vests, call for mobilization."

Obviously, the protesters are not ready to comply with the measures promised by Macron, which, in their opinion, are limited. The social test, faced by Macron and his government, is not yet passed. Further developments depend on how consistent the yellow vests are in their efforts to achieve systemic reforms. Reforms that may lead to serious adjustments in the social image of the French state.

"Leave our people alone!"

The growing protest movement in France also spreads rumours about the possible external influence on the course of events in this country. After all, the external forces themselves give reason for this kind of assumptions.

Thus, on his Twitter account, President Donald Trump expresses his dissatisfaction with the idea of ​​the French president Macron about creating a pan-European army to defend Europe, including from the United States. It seems that the American leader is simply trying to influence the position of his French counterpart at a time when the latter in a particularly vulnerable position. In particular, President Trump criticised Macron of his past statement about Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, which replaced the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

"The Paris Agreement isn’t working out so well for Paris. Protests and riots all over France. People do not want to pay large sums of money, much to third world countries (that are questionably run), in order to maybe protect the environment. Maybe it’s time to end the ridiculous and extremely expensive Paris Agreement and return money back to the people in the form of lower taxes?" Trump said.

Certainly, the message of the American president concerns the fact that the French president motivated his decision to increase energy tariffs with the Paris Agreement, which provides for a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and a decrease in global warming, which caused such a harsh assessment of his compatriots. According to Macron, reducing the use of gasoline, diesel engines, internal combustion engines due to increased fuel tariffs will increase the share of alternative energy sources. Macron planned to achieve the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 30% by 2030 and to introduce a ban on the sale of vehicles running on gasoline and diesel fuel starting from 2040. If his recent measures show an intention to go in line with the implementation of such plans for certain social concessions within the country, then in no way do they indicate Paris’s willingness to reconcile with external pressure, particularly from Washington.

"We don’t meddle in US domestic policy, and we want it to be mutual. I say this to Donald Trump, and the French president says the same thing: leave our people alone!" French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

Another widely discussed topic about external interference in French affairs concerns Russia. The Times reported on hundreds of Twitter accounts allegedly associated with Russia, which have published daily over 1.5 thousand messages to expand the scale of street protests in France. The British newspaper claims that accounts spread misinformation using photographs of wounded from other protests to exaggerate the facts about the cruelty of the French police.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, who spoke on this subject, said that the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security of France is conducting an investigation into Russia's involvement in protests in Paris and other cities of the country. At the same time, he added: "I will not judge something until the facts are established." According to Le Drian, "France and Russia have issues on which the positions of the two countries differ, but there are also issues in which their positions are similar, as well as issues over which countries work together."

It is possible to assume the Kremlin’s interest in the change of power in France, since President Macron takes a tough stance towards Russia because of its Ukrainian policy and is in favour of expanding anti-Russian sanctions. However, with the same probability we can assume that rumours about the influence of Moscow on recent events in France are spread by forces interested in further cooling relations between the Kremlin and the Élysée Palace.

Yet none of the statements in the world media and expert circles about external influence on the development of the yellow vests movement does not refute the defining internal motive of mass protest actions in the Fifth Republic. France, which has raised the ideals of Freedom, Equality and Fraternity to the rank of a state ideology, is undergoing a serious strength test of its democratic structure. The outcome of this test will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the further fate of not only France itself, but also the entire European community, in the development of which France has played and continues to play one of the instrumental roles.