"EUROPE IS IN DANGER!"

"Never since the Second World War has Europe been so essential. Yet never has Europe been in such danger," French President Emmanuel Macron said addressing the population of the European Union.

His roadmap for the EU, which contains proposals on several major reforms, was published on March 5, 2019 in 24 languages ​​in 28 EU countries.

Essence of the initiative

Macron's initiative can be divided into three main areas: protecting the continent through joint defence programs and strengthening borders to control the flow of migrants, which have strengthened the position of anti-immigration parties; defending freedom and electoral democracy; reforming EU policies and regulations from industrial competition to the environment.

The roadmap defines the result of the UK referendum on Brexit as a symbol of the European crisis, an example of how people can turn away from the EU if it is simply viewed as a "soulless market" and not as "a historic success: the reconciliation of a devastated continent in an unprecedented project of peace, prosperity and freedom." Macron warned the countries of Central and Eastern Europe against viewing Europe "as a supermarket" when it comes to respect for democratic values.

According to the French president, Brexit symbolises a crisis in which Europe "has failed to respond to its peoples’ needs for protection from the major shocks of the modern world." He believes that this is an example of a trap set by provocateurs and creators of fake news that can destroy the European Union: "Who told the British people the truth about their post-Brexit future? Who spoke to them about losing access to the European market? Who mentioned the risks to peace in Ireland of restoring the former border?"

As to security issues, Macron abandoned his former idea of ​​creating a common armed forces with a single defence budget in favour of a new "treaty on defence, security and mutual protection," which requires each EU country to increase defence spending.

According to Financial Times, Macron "even extends an olive branch to Britain", saying that she can be a member of the new European Security Council and  can participate in the collective decision-making process.

As far as trade policy is concerned, Macron offers "penalties or a ban in Europe on businesses that compromise our strategic interests and fundamental values such as environmental standards, data protection and fair payment of taxes ".

The EU already has certain powers in this regard, such as imposing penalities for breaching data protection or cancelling corporate tax transactions, which are considered a form of state aid. But the French president offers broader powers. And he does not hide that he takes the experience of China and the United States as role models.

Amidst concerns about external interference and cyber-attacks on EU elections, Macron proposes the creation of a European agency to combat international cyber-attacks and campaign manipulation, and to prohibit foreign funding of European political parties. In fact, it was an obvious hint at rumours about the possible funding by Russians of election campaigns by Marin Le Pen in France and Matteo Salvini in Italy.

Among his wildest proposals is the revision of the Schengen Agreement, which includes 22 countries. According to Macron, those who want to be part of the visa-free space should provide both stricter controls at borders and a general asylum policy for migrants. Currently, the member countries of the Schengen zone may have completely different policies regarding asylum and immigration. Germany, for example, provided asylum for about 1.2 million people during the 2015-2016migration crisis, while Hungary passed a law allowing criminal proceedings against Hungarian nationals helping those who seek asylum.

The EU already has a border control agency, Frontex, which coordinates and supports national border forces. Giving it authority to intervene in case of failure of national agencies may be unpopular in countries where governments want to retain control over immigration.

Macron also proposes the establishment of permanent panels where European citizens could, and not only during elections, consult and express their opinions on reforms carried out in the EU. The Conference for Europe would allow public and state institutions to "engage with citizens’ panels and hear academics, business and labour representatives, and religious and spiritual leaders" and "define a roadmap for the European Union that translates these key priorities into concrete actions".

The most controversial and criticized part of his proposals is related to the creation of a pan-European social protection system that would allow EU citizens to receive "the same pay in the same workplace, and a minimum European wage appropriate to each country". But Macron did not specify how EU can balance the wages in say Bulgaria, where it reaches 260 euros per month, and in Germany (1,498 euros).

Macron was also reminded that in his home country, France, he was accused of trying to modernise the French labour code in such a way that, according to some experts, disproportionately favours employers to the detriment of employees.

Reaction

The response that has come from the majority of European establishment to Macron's proposals was rather positive. In particular, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, Finnish Prime Minister Juha Sipila, President of the EU Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Council Donald Tusk expressed their support for these initiatives.

Perhaps the fact that the French president did not mention the problems of the Eurozone, which is a painful topic for Germany, triggered enthusiastic responses from German politicians. German government said that Germany supported a number of proposals made by the Elysee Palace, in particular, the idea of ​​creating a single European Security Council, strengthening the EU defence policy, developing a common understanding on migration issues, and the proposal to focus on innovative economy.

Macron's initiative has also been criticised. Critics agree that resetting the EU is not an absolutely pointless or hopeless task. But first of all, they say, Europe must be richer. In order to prove that the EU project is justified, Europe needs a tangible economic success. However, greater integration cannot solve this problem, so it will not work.

Macron’s proposals to "rethink" the Schengen zone, create a common border force and a European asylum office will never receive the approval of the extreme right, who believe that immigration policy should be a national prerogative.

Remarkably, many of the measure proposed by Macron are in fact very close to what the right-wing populists have demanded for many years, notes The Irish Times. "Not only does Macron risk failing to achieve anything but, on the contrary, he only adds fuel to the fire of populism, the one which he is fighting against," French Contrepoints writes. According to the British The Guardian, "Macron’s Charlemagne-ish idea of an ever more united, integrated, regulated and collectivised Europe, standing its ground against rival US, Chinese and Russian geopolitical blocs, is strangely outdated." "Macron demands setting up a single social model and economic regulation for the whole continent... His own country is left with nothing precisely because Macron is unable to convince his fellow citizens of the advantages of the social model he proposed," the Slovak Dennik N writes.

Indeed, many note that Macron must deal primarily with the problem of weak economic growth in France and put an end to the confrontation with the yellow vests. This protest movement was the longest in France since the student speeches in May 1968, which ended a year after the resignation of President de Gaulle.

Merkel's successor may fail

When Emmanuel Macron was elected president of France in May 2017, many in Europe saw him as the successor to Merkel leading the European Union. Franco-German alliance has been a driving force in the EU for decades. And Macron was considered an obvious heir, despite his young age. No matter who replaces Merkel as Chancellor, he or she will likely become a novice in the EU and world politics, which will eventually make Macron a senior in the Franco-German alliance, and therefore in the EU.

In his Sorbonne speech 18 months ago, Macron outlined his own vision of a stronger European Union. But the reforms that he then proposed remained unfulfilled. Macron counted on the support of Germany. But in September 2017, the CDU party headed by Merkel could not get a majority in parliament. It took more than six months for Merkel to form a government. This and other internal problems strongly distracted Merkel from issues related to the EU.

This fall, the CDU showed poor results during regional elections and Merkel resigned as party leader, although she promised to defend her term as chancellor until 2021. But the pressure on her is increasing.

A poll conducted at the end of last year showed that 62% of Germans want her to resign as Chancellor. Even if Merkel succeeds, she is unlikely to be able to pay much attention to the EU.

Domestic political problems in France have considerably diminished Macron's authority in Europe. Political impulse shifted in favour of European sceptic leaders such as Matteo Salvini in Italy. Populists have taken advantage of public discontent with poor economic results, austerity policies in many EU countries.

To implement any of his proposals, Macron will need convincing results in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament in May and the support of allies within the country and in Europe. This is not an easy task. Polls show that the "big coalition" of European centre-right and centre-left parties, which have dominated the EU parliament for 40 years, can lose much to populists.

The current performance of Emmanuel Macron, as well as his speech at the Sorbonne University in autumn 2017, is often compared with Winston Churchill's calls for Europeans in 1945-1951 to unite and prevent eternal world wars through the creation of the European Union.

Perhaps the May elections to the European Parliament will show how much Macron’s struggle with nationalists and populists is more successful than Churchill’s unsuccessful calls at the time for European unification.