LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?

On April 15, Russia initiated a working meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, Elmar Mammadyarov, Zohrab Mnatsakanian and Sergey Lavrov in Moscow. They were joined by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Igor Popov (Russia), Andrew Chauffeur (USA) and Stefan Visconti (France), as well as the personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk. This was the first meeting after almost a two-year break, which demonstrates an increasing interest of the mediators to move the peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh from a long-standing standstill. Remarkably, the U.S. State Department proposed to hold the next similar meeting in America. Intensification of the negotiation process is a positive sign, although too early to talk about any concrete results. The parties began to discuss substantive issues in parallel with measures that, when implemented, should create a favourable background in public sentiment and increase the level of mutual trust.

The joint statement released after the summit reads as follows: "As a follow-up to the agreements reached by President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinian at their summit in Vienna on 29 March of this year, the participants in the meeting discussed the situation at the border and the line of contact, as well as the prospects for establishing humanitarian co-operation. They also exchanged detailed views on key aspects of the settlement process.

The Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia reaffirmed the intention of the parties to continue their efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through political and diplomatic means. The Ministers emphasized their interest in the further stabilization of the situation in the conflict zone, in particular during agricultural activities. They also agreed to take measures, on a mutual basis, to allow families to have access to their relatives held in custody in the respective detention centers of the parties. The Ministers expressed their willingness to start concrete work on establishing contacts between people, including through mutual visits of media representatives.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group reiterated their commitment to the mediation mission aimed at achieving a sustainable peace in the region. The participants of the meeting agreed to continue their contacts in the near future."

During the press conference following the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov did not disclose the content of the talks held in Moscow, but diplomatically said: "If I understand correctly, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov in one of his interviews after the meeting mentioned that the 2016 proposals were discussed. Therefore, I have nothing to add here. As for the essence of these proposals, they go in line with the approaches expressed in numerous statements by the heads of the co-chair countries, Russia, France and the United States."

Unlike his Armenian and Russian counterparts, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov provided more details: "The meeting was productive. We specifically discussed issues that still hindered progress. I cannot say that this is a complete progress. But in general, my Armenian counterpart and I were able to analyse and understand some of the problem points comprehensively and deeply. We held a discussion based on the plan proposed by Russia in 2016. Of course, at this meeting we could not solve all the issues. The benefit of today's meeting is that we re-evaluated the existing problems and their solutions. For example, Armenia raises the issue of status and security. Our priority, however, is the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories and the return of internally displaced persons. We had complex discussions around these four issues. I think we agreed to continue the discussions, as I have to inform Mr. President. My Armenian colleague should inform his prime minister. There were different opinions. I do not want to say now what they were. These include the proposals of Russia, the co-chairs, Azerbaijan and Armenia. We continue our work in this direction."

The Russian initiative to organize the meeting in Moscow has increased public interest in the so-called Lavrov Plan. However, nothing has been announced at the official level yet. Analysts agree that it is based on gradual steps to withdraw Armenian forces from the occupied areas outside the borders of the former Nagorno Karabakh in line with the 2+3+2 scheme (variations are possible) with simultaneous implementation of security measures and the resumption of diplomatic, economic and transport relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia should be the guarantor of the implementation of the compromise agreement with symbolic participation of other countries. There was a lot of discussion in the media that the promotion of conflict resolution along this line implies Azerbaijan’s entry into the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which by default includes Nagorno-Karabakh in these bodies. This will make possible the development of Nagorno-Karabakh under the conditions of increased security, self-government and free movement of people, goods, services and capital even without final registration of the status of the disputed territory.

In various interviews, a Russian philosopher, the leader of the International Eurasian Movement, Doctor of Political Sciences Alexander Dugin and the famous Russian journalist and politician Maxim Shevchenko spoke about the Lavrov Plan. Analyst Stanislav Tarasov from the pro-Armenian REGNUM, following the outcome of the Moscow summit also noted that the Lavrov Plan assumes the liberation of part of the occupied Azerbaijani territories around Nagorno-Karabakh. The settlement of the conflict through the establishment of a transitional Russian protectorate over Nagorno-Karabakh and delegation of negotiating authority to Moscow was recently announced by the former commander of the so-called "self-defence forces" of Karabakhi separatists Samvel Babayan, who announced his intention to apply for the post of the head of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the upcoming elections next year.

It seems that there is a light at the end of the tunnel called the Karabakh settlement. However, the confusing statements of the Armenian Prime Minister, the uncompromising statements and the position of the overwhelming majority of Armenian politicians and analysts in the media negate the optimistic expectations. For example, Mr. Pashinian said in his speech at PACE that he managed to "start a rather constructive and positive dialogue with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev," adding: "It is very important that the dialogue starts between societies, that we prepare our societies for peace, and not to war ..." Then, however, Pashinian irresponsibly accused the PACE of "not taking any measures to strengthen democratic institutions in Nagorno-Karabakh and the establishment of a civil society." According to Pashinian, the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognized internationally as an independent state is not an obstacle, since people live there too. He is not concerned however that due to the fault of Armenia, which unleashed a war against Azerbaijan and occupied almost one fifth of the territory of Azerbaijan, more than a million people were deprived of their right to live in their own houses on their own land. Pashinian denied the use of the term "occupation" in relation to the actions of Armenians stating: "How can a person occupy the territory where he was born, where his children were born and where their ancestors were born, lived and buried?" At the same time, Pashinian most remains silent about the presence of Armenian armed forces in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, in which his own son is currently serving in the military along with the son the defence minister. Apparently, Pashinian is fighting for the rights of 100 thousand Karabakhi Armenians, but turns a blind eye to the lives of more than 600 thousand Azerbaijanis expelled from Karabakh.

During a press conference in Strasbourg, Pashinian said that he would like to appeal to the people of Azerbaijan and talk with them. However, his political manoeuvre was not impressive at all. If Pashinian has something to say on the essence of resolving the conflict, then let him speak for his Armenian compatriots. We, Azerbaijanis, are fully capable of independently drawing conclusions from his statements. However, it turns out that Pashinian has nothing to say to his people, but on the contrary, he expects a consensus mandate from society on this issue. "When you send me to the negotiations on Karabakh, you do not say: go and do this. Armenian people do not tell me 'Here is a paper for you. Read it and solve the issue.' That is why discrepancies occur," Pashinian said. At the same time, Armenian media also published his extreme position on Karabakh, which can be summed up as follows: "We will not return even a single inch of the occupied (according to Armenians, 'liberated') lands!"

The longer it takes, the stronger is the feeling that the Armenians led by the current populist government are not able to take a constructive position in the negotiations on a peaceful settlement. That is why it is important to engage both the foreign ministers and even the presidents of the co-chair states in the negotiation process. The talks in Moscow with the participation of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov should be considered in the same vein.

One should expect Azerbaijan becomes more active in the European direction in order to involve the European Union, particularly France, Germany and Great Britain, in joint efforts at a high level to advance the Karabakh settlement. After all, the so-called frozen conflicts can suddenly flare up with fierce military actions that can be difficult to localize on a regional scale. As the ex-president of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko stated in his recent interview, not a single decision made by international political organizations, including on the Karabakh issue, was implemented. He added: "The continuing violation of the territorial integrity of our countries is a threat to the entire modern world order. Europe must understand this and perceive these problems as its own, because in the modern world aggression can come not only from a neighbour, but also from a distant country some thousand kilometres away..." I think that it would be nice if European leaders listen to the words of the retired but experienced politician and say their word at the Eastern Partnership summit scheduled for mid-May to mark the tenth anniversary of this ambitious program.