ELECTIONS OF REGIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

Kazakhstan has a new president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who took an oath on June 12 with 71% of popular votes. Runner-up was the opposition candidate Amirzhan Kosanov with 16.23% of the votes. The third place of presidential elections was taken by the candidate of Ak Zhol Party, deputy of the lower house of parliament, the first and so far the only female candidate for the presidency Daniya Yespaeva (5.05%).

According to Lazzat Suleymen, a member of the Central Election Commission of Kazakhstan, the turnout was 77.4%.

The current elections were the first in which Nursultan Nazarbayev did not take part. The head of Kazakhstan for almost 30 years, the father of the nation (Yelbasy) resigned in March 2019. Tokayev, who previously headed the Senate (upper house) of the parliament, became the acting president of the country. His candidacy was nominated by the ruling party on the proposal of Nazarbayev.

The new president of Kazakhstan is 65 years old. His father Kemel Tokayev was a famous writer. Tokayev graduated from MSIIR (Moscow State Institute of International Relations), working in the Soviet embassies in Singapore and Beijing following his graduation.

In 1992, he was appointed Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, and in 1994 became the minister of foreign affairs of Kazakhstan. In 1999, he became deputy prime minister and then prime minister of Kazakhstan until 2002. Then Tokayev resigned and returned to the Foreign Ministry, working there up until 2007. He was the Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Disarmament. From 2013 to March 2019, he was the Chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan.

According to Kazakh political analyst Talgat Kaliyev, the support of Nazarbayev was an important factor in the victory of Tokayev. "He has become a guarantor of stability for years to come. People are afraid of losing a generally stable and safe life conditions that have formed in the country since independence. Certainly, new positive changes are still required, but the people do not want radical changes; they fear instability, including within the elites," Kaliyev said.

During the final press conference, Tokayev outlined the priorities as the new president of Kazakhstan. "Corruption is a great evil that comes very easily, but is very difficult to eradicate. As a society, we must fight together with this public evil," the president-elect said, sharing his plans for the upcoming presidential term. He called on all political forces in the country to establish a dialogue and announced the creation of a committee of public confidence, which will include representatives of various circles within society, where everyone can exchange views.

"Continuity is an effective continuation of the course of Yelbasy at the new stage of Kazakhstan's development. This means the strengthening of independence, sovereignty and national security. This is stability, civil peace and harmony. It is a dynamic economy and a strong social policy. My task is to increase income and improve the quality of life for our citizens," Tokayev said.

By the way, Tokayev is not only the former head of the Senate, but also one of the authors of Kazakhstan's foreign policy doctrine. According to political scientist, a member of the public council of the city of Almaty, Marat Shibutov, "Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is unlikely to undergo serious changes. Changes will begin in domestic politics." Firstly, we should expect liberalisation of the presidential course and the expansion of the powers of parliament.

Peaceful and civilized change of power in Kazakhstan is very important for the entire region and at least two global actors, Russia and China. Azerbaijan is also interested in a peaceful transfer of power and stable development of Kazakhstan. As Caspian neighbours, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have common cultural roots, history, and maintain effective cooperation within large regional and bilateral projects, interact and support each other in various international organizations.

In general, foreign observers assessed the organization of elections positively, with no serious violations. "Elections open up a new stage of state building," a Pole observer, former Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Piechociński said during a briefing.

However, the OSCE observer mission traditionally criticized the electoral process, noting "disregard for basic human rights, including arrests of peaceful protesters, and numerous irregularities during the election day," and generally described the elections as "hardly demonstrating respect for democratic standards".

Nevertheless, there are several points that make the past campaign unique for Kazakhstan's political practice. In fact, 16% of the votes that a candidate of the non-systemic opposition, leader of the national-patriotic movement Ult Tagdyry (Fate of the Nation) Amirzhan Kosanov, received is a record. None of the presidential candidates had been able to attract so much popular sympathy until that time. However, according to political analyst Talgat Kaliyev, fragmentation of the opposition is one of the main factors competitors could hardly resist Tokayev. Pro-Western ultra-nationalist Tokayev was not supported by another critic of the government, a fugitive Kazakhstani businessman Mukhtar Ablyazov. He opposed the illegitimate, in his opinion, elections and criticized Kosanov for his participation. The former minister Ablyazov currently lives in France under political asylum, has his own YouTube channel, in which he called people to boycott the elections and go to rallies. However, he is supported by a very small part of the Kazakh society, because many people remember the past deeds of Ablyazov in the economic sphere.

Yet we believe that the main reason why Kassym-Jomart Tokayev managed to secure the votes of the overwhelming majority of Kazakhstani voters was their support for stability and continuity of power in the country.