DE-ESCALATION OF THE IRANIAN CONFLICT?

Situation in and around Iran continues to be one of the most pertinent topics of international politics. Despite the ongoing escalation of confrontation between Tehran and the West, it seems it is still possible to settle the existing problems through diplomacy, especially under the increasing influence of a multitude of factors.

Deal at stake

In the first week of September, the Iranian leadership made a loud but quite expected statement about the start of the third stage in a downgrading of its commitments to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), also known as the nuclear deal. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran lifted all limits on research and development of advanced centrifuges applicable under JCPA, and gave two more months to the European parties to the deal (France, Germany, the UK) to fulfil their part of obligations under the plan.

Apparently, Tehran fulfilled its warning voiced at the recent negotiations in Paris on providing Iran with opportunity to continue oil exports. Iranians express dissatisfaction not only with the tightening of US sanctions against Tehran but also with the fact that the European negotiators continue to accept Washington’s restrictive conditions, although they declare their disagreement with the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and their anti-Iranian policy.

Earlier the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warnedthat Iran would go into the third stage in a downgrading of its commitments to the JCPA "if Europeans do not take any action." Now a new phase in the development of events around the Iranian nuclear program has, in fact, official started. Obviously, this is in no way good for the prospect of relations between Iran and the West, which has earlier expressed its concerns on the volume and the degree of uranium enrichment by Tehran. Iranians make it clear that they are still interested in accumulating uranium reserves enriched up to 4.5%, but they can enrich uranium by more than 20%. The proof of this statement is an increase in the number of centrifuges as part of the third stage in a downgrading of commitments to the JCPA from 10 to 174.

Meanwhile, Tehran has no plans to change the access regime for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to its nuclear facilities. In early September, the IAEA delegation led by the new head of the organisation, Cornel Feruta, visited Iran. The agency confirmed that Iran has begun to establish the latest centrifuges and is moving towards the production of enriched uranium, which is prohibited under the nuclear deal.

However, Iran insists that its actions are a reaction to the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal, and that Iran is ready to return to the initial conditions of the JCPA if the Western negotiators take similar steps. Washington announced its intention to step up anti-Iranian sanctions, which over the past year have resulted in a sharp deterioration of the economic situation in Iran. According to US Special Representative Brian Hook, “the US intends to intensify the campaign to maximise pressure on Iran” in order to force the Iranian authorities to start new negotiations on the nuclear and missile problems. This confirms the intention of the US President Donald Trump to achieve a complete review of the deal with Iran concluded during the previous US administration, to force Iran to negotiations to develop an agreement that would replace the JCPA rejected by Washington.

According to Americans, the new agreement should regulate both Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs. Trump does not hide his dissatisfaction with the absence in the existing nuclear deal with Tehran of provisions to suspend or completely cancel the Iranian ballistic program, which the US considers a direct threat to its national interests in the Middle East, as well as to the security of its closest ally, Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to push Washington to increase pressure on the Iranian authorities and a complete rejection of negotiations with Iran. Remarkably, in response to the conclusions of the IAEA experts on Iran’s violation of the conditions of the JCPA, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that the governments of France, the UK and Germany should cancel their participation in the deal and instead join the US's anti-Iran sanctions. In essence, this means that Israel supports forceful solution of the Iranian problem, a scenario that is not rejected in the White House and promoted by the 'hawks' of the American political elite.

Disruptive policy

The deployment of F-22 multipurpose fighters to Qatar, as well as the USS Abraham Lincoln and other warships and additional air defence systems such as Patriot missiles off the Iranian coast, in particular in the northwestern Indian Ocean, is just a few measures actively taken by the US government to prepare for a likely event of war with Iran. The balance of powers has almost been broken when the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of Iran shot down an American drone. Several days ago the commander of the IRGC Air Forces, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said that the US failed to use the downed drone to force Iran into an unfavourable dialogue.

Meanwhile, the American attitude towards the IRGC is also an example of the growing hostility between Washington and Tehran. The White House included the corps in the list of foreign terrorist organisations. In response, Iran recognised the central command of the US armed forces as a terrorist organisation, and the US as a "state sponsoring terrorism." However, Americans recently continued such political demarches in a particularly strage way.

When the IRGC leader, Brigadier General Hossein Salami, declares the "invincibility" of the Iranian army, development and upgrade of Iran’s weaponry and military potential "based on the strategy of defeating trans-regional arrogant powers," the US is taking new measures to limit the potential of the elite part of the Iranian armed forces. Thus, Washington appointed a reward of $15 million for assistance in undermining the financial operations between the IRGC and the Quds forces, a military Special Forces unit within the corps. US Special Representative Brian Hook called this a historic decision because "it is the first time in history that the US is offering a reward for information that will undermine financial operations of a state organization."

This shows that the US is ready to stop strengthening of Iran's military potential by any means. However, is the US ready to use the forceful solution of the conflict with Iran? The American administration, even with all its blatantly demonstrated militancy, refrains from giving a clear answer to this question, which has taken on an ambiguous character in light of the resignation of one of America’s main 'hawks'.

Dismissal of stubborn adviser

US President Donald Trump fired his National Security Adviser John Bolton. “I strongly disagreed with many of his proposals, like other administration officials, and asked John to resign, which he did this morning,” the US president wrote on September 10.

This largely significant event was preceded by a whole series of events, indicating a growing disagreement on various issues of foreign policy, including Iran, between the current host of the White House and one of the key figures of his administration.

Despite President Trump’s determination to further tighten anti-Iranian sanctions and seek Tehran’s agreement to conclude a new nuclear deal based on American terms, the US president supports direct negotiations with the Iranian leadership without preconditions. Thus, Trump may consider meeting with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani at the UN General Assembly scheduled for September 2019. American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper confirmed the possibility of holding such a meeting.

It is remarkable that the Israeli media, referring to national intelligence centres, announced the completion of preparations for the expected meeting of the US and Iranian presidents. According to Haaretz, the possibility of a meeting between the American and Iranian leaders was confirmed after the conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US SoD Mark Esper. Haaretz also states a concern that "Trump and Rouhani can agree on something that the Jewish state will not like." The Jerusalem Post mentions the unpredictability of the American leader: “Trump can certainly recognise Jerusalem and the Golan Heights [as part of Israel], and pull the US out from the Iranian nuclear deal but the next day he can also enter to a new deal with Iran, which will adversely affect Israel."

The European allies of the US, in particular France, do not hide their interest in resuming economic cooperation with Tehran and, accordingly, easing US sanctions against Iran. They also welcome a possible meeting between Trump and Rouhani.

At the time of such expectations, when there is no doubt about Trump's intention to meet and talk with Rouhani, President's National Security Advisor John Bolton, who is known to be a supporter of tough measures against Tehran, began making statements that could undermine the prospect of an American-Iranian meeting. He particularly said that “a meeting with the Iranians will not mean a change in the position of the US President” and that negotiations between the leaders of both countries will take place when Tehran “is ready to discuss a new deal”.

Apparently, such an assertive Iranian policy by Bolton doubled by his overt sabotage of negotiations between the American administration and the Taliban of Afghanistan frustrated Trump completely. We can assume that Bolton’s dismissal will make the White House’s anti-Iranian course somewhat easier.

Key partners

Meanwhile, Washington’s policy towards Tehran is increasingly affected by the rejection of a forceful solution of the problem by the world community. The most indicative in this sense is the position of Russia and China, the states that Iran considers its "key partners for the preservation of the JCPA." China's position is of particular importance, given that it shows strong readiness to ignore US sanctions against Iran.

Chinese Foreign Ministry demanded that the US "refrain from wrong actions, such as unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure on Iran," expressing the hope that "the American side will make more efforts to ensure regional peace and stability instead of exacerbating the situation." Beijing made this loud statement after a visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to China, which also revealed the details of the roadmap for a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.

The main point of the roadmap is China's investment of $280 billion in the development of the oil and gas sectors of Iran, as well as another $120 billion in the upgrade of the transport and industrial infrastructure of Iran. Chinese companies will get a preemptive right of selection in tenders for any development of oil and gas fields, as well as in any petrochemical projects in Iran, including the provision of technology and the necessary personnel.

Also, China will dispatch 5,000 security personnel to Iran to ensure the protection of the above projects. Beijing will get the right to defer payments for Iranian products for up to two years, and the transactions between China and Iran will not be in US dollars.

An important moment for Iran is that the New Silk Road passing through its territory thanks to the Chinese policy One Belt - One Road will connect Urumqi (the capital of the Xinjiang province of China) with Tehran through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and then through Turkey to Europe. But the priority for Iran is that the deal with China will accelerate the growth of Iranian oil and gas sectors, as well as increase Iranian imports of energy to China in defiance of the US sanctions.

Thus, Tehran and Beijing are making a dramatic breakthrough in bilateral cooperation in the context of the United States pursuing a sanctions policy against Iran and a trade war against China. The arrival of the Iranian military delegation to the People’s Republic of China on September 11, led by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic, Brigadier General Mohammad Hossein Baghei, speaks volumes about this. In the confrontation with the United States and its allies, Iran also relies on strategic cooperation with the Celestial Empire - a factor that promises to seriously affect the entire development of events around Iran and its nuclear program.