Armenian experts continue to analyze and discuss the visit of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Georgia. The focus is mainly on the informal side of the visit: the ceremony, Georgian choir singing an Armenian song together with the head of the Armenian government, and a charming puppy presented by the Prime Minister of Georgia Georgy Gakhariya to his Armenian colleague...

But there is almost no serious analytical information. The reason is simple: there were no tangible results of Pashinyan’s visit to Georgia but the informal protocol ceremony. During the visit, Pashinyan met with his Georgian counterpart Georgy Gakharia, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, Parliament Speaker Archil Talakvadze, Catholicos Patriarch of All Georgia Ilya II and Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani. But the parties did not sign any serious documents. It seems that they promised the opportunity for Armenian citizens to travel to Georgia with ID cards, but this is just a protocol of intentions, and how it will be implemented and whether it will be at all is at least an open question.

There were no plans to hold a business forum either. During the visit, Pashinyan talked about stunning success, “strategic partnership”, said that relations between Tbilisi and Yerevan are reaching a new level. But the Georgian side was much more restrained in rhetoric. And behind this restraint is clearly the growing distrust between Tbilisi and Yerevan.

Delicate backstage of good neighborly relations

There may be many explanations for this growth of mistrust. Georgia intends to be a full-fledged member of the EU and NATO, while Armenia is a member of the EAEU and the CSTO. Although the two countries remain neighbors, and Tbilisi seeks to maintain good relations with both Baku and Yerevan, the political course of the two countries diverges increasingly more. Analysts in Yerevan with irritation and anxiety speak of Azerbaijani and Turkish influence in Georgia.

However, in reality, this is not entirely true. Thus, in this context, it is worth noting the visit of Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili to Yerevan in the spring of 2019, when experts first talked about mistrust and "cooling" of relations between Georgia and Armenia. Mrs. Zurabishvili during the meeting with the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ararat Mirzoyan stated the following: “As you know, Georgia has two occupied territories, and if we are talking about the interests of the country, the main and only interest for us is that our sovereignty and territorial integrity be recognized not only verbally, but actually. Therefore, it is very sad that delegations from Nagorno-Karabakh come to Abkhazia and South Ossetia and raise the question that these are conflicts of the same type and are looking for some kind of symmetry. For us, it is very sad and painful. We think that there is no benevolence that should exist in relation to our country.”

There have been no high-profile visits since then. But on the other hand, a new serious annoying factor has strengthened. Armenia regularly votes at the UN against the territorial integrity of Georgia, which also causes understandable indignation in Tbilisi.

But the most important thing is that Armenia had and has claims to Georgian lands.

Samtskhe-Javakheti and other territories

Perhaps the most famous example is the Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti. Political manifesto of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, including the Dashnak party and the Armenian National Committee of America, published in the French-Armenian newspaper Gamk on December 11, 1985, explicitly states that "the borders of the United Armenia should include the Armenian territories established by the Sevres Treaty within the districts of Nakhichevan, Akhalkalaki and Karabakh." Many experts agree that this particular document initiated the preparations for making claims in Karabakh. In other words, Georgia has something to worry about.

Officially, Yerevan does not proclaim miatsum. But in 2017, a serious scandal took place between Georgia and Armenia, when Sergey Minasyan, known for his active attitude toward the Armenians of Javakhetia, renamed to Javakh in Armenian, was appointed the Armenian ambassador to Georgia. Tbilisi did not make loud statements then, but Minasyan did not receive the agrement (the consent of the authorities of the host country) from Tbilisi. Ambassador had to be changed urgently. In fact, the incident took place during the reign of Serzh Sargsyan as the president of Armenia. But such scandals are not forgotten soon, if at all forgotten. Unfortunately, the matter is not limited to Javakhetia alone. In Armenia, they are ready to make claims on Tbilisi.

Finally, there is also a problem of ‘controversial churches’, the ‘glaring stones’ that Ilya Chavchavadze wrote about. The Georgian Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC) claims no less than five churches in Tbilisi alone. In the village of Gumburdo in Javakhetia, a debate about the ownership of a local church of the 10th century led to unrest of a regional scale. In 2016, restoration works began in the church. And during excavations in the churchyard, human bones were discovered. They were reburied. But local activists immediately announced that the discovered remains belong to the Armenians (despite the fact that no examination was carried out), which means that they need to install an Armenian cross (khachkar) on their grave and hand over the church to the AAC.

In addition, there is still an issue related to the church of Khujabi. This 13th-century monastery is located on the border of Armenia and Georgia. For decades, no one doubted that it was a Georgian monastery, or that it stands on Georgian territory. But in 1988, simultaneously with the start of the confrontation in Karabakh, Armenia made claims both against Khujabi and the land on which it stands. In 2005, when the crew of the Georgian television company Mze tried to approach the walls of the monastery, Armenian border guards opened fire. Today this monastery is already recognized as "controversial." For obvious reasons, the ongoing events make Georgia keep a distance in relations with Armenia.

Revolutionary solidarity did not work

For Nikol Pashinyan, failure in the Georgian direction is even more than failure. Moreover, the Armenian prime minister clearly counted on an impressive political breakthrough with Georgia. Yerevan believes that Georgia is the country where the Rose Revolution won. In Armenia, the Pashinyan team also came to power as a result of a popular revolution, which means that Armenian experts concluded that the two countries simply must be allies. But now lush hopes give way to bitter disappointment. As it turned out, revolutionary romance cannot replace tangible economic specificity, actually—the absence of such specificity.

In fact, Azerbaijan and Georgia have a truly multilateral strategic partnership. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey jointly implement such mega-projects as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. Azerbaijan and Turkey are making substantial investments in the Georgian economy. There is simply nothing like that with Armenia. The poor, squeezed, rapidly emptying as a result of catastrophic migration country is of no interest to Georgia at all - either politically or economically. The market in Sadakhlo, where resourceful merchants from Yerevan trade various kinds of consumer goods, re-export of used cars from Europe is the all they have in common amidst the growing political risks and threats in the Armenian direction. These fact, obviously, make Georgia take understandable caution in relations with its neighbor.

To say that it is a disaster for Armenia is to say nothing. The importance of relations with Georgia is difficult to overestimate. Georgian territory is used by Armenians for transportation (passenger, cargo) between Armenia and Russia, where the entire passenger and cargo load goes through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint. An alternative route - first by rail, then the ferry between the ports of Poti and the Caucasus - also passes through the territory of Georgia. In addition, Georgia and its Black Sea ports are the only accessible road to Europe. Georgia with its pro-Western course was perceived as a “window to Europe” for Armenia as well. And if the atmosphere of bilateral relations between the two countries is rapidly getting "cold", then...

Verkhny Lars checkpoint is unlikely to be closed for Armenia, of course. But next time it will be more difficult to arrange the passage of cargo trains with corn through Georgia, as well as to allow Armenian trucks with Iranian fruits to go to Russia, or to reduce railroad freight rates. And for the Armenian economy with a zero margin of safety, this is a heavy blow.

The above facts are only a small portion of the price that Armenia will have to pay for claims to foreign lands.