TRADITION BEATS LIBERALISM

Andrzej Duda was re-elected President of Poland. As a candidate from the ruling Law and Justice Party, he won in the second round of elections with a slight lead over his opponent. Known as a supporter of conservative views and patriotic rhetoric, Duda opposed the position of the liberal-minded mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, who supported the strengthening of European integration. The victory of the incumbent president in a difficult struggle and the almost equal distribution of votes between the candidates suggests the intensity of political passions in the foreseeable future in Poland.

Political components of success and the role of Berlin

Why did Duda fail to win by a wide margin? Why do we still hear the voices of those who claim that the elections divided the Polish society in two equal camps?

In fact, the Polish political community, as well as the political community in many countries of Eastern Europe, has long been divided into so-called Euro-sceptics and Euro-optimists. The former, including Mr. Duda and his Law and Justice Party, support more independent external and internal policies and less dependence on Brussels. The latter, including the Civic Platform Party, advocate closer coordination of Poland's policy with the actions and policies of Brussels. The conditional political divide in Poland is on this issue. Both political platforms represent the two heavyweights of Polish politics. This is Jaroslaw Kaczynski, brother of the late ex-President of Poland Lech Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice party. And Donald Tusk is one of the founders of the Civic Platform, ex-President of the European Council. That is why the figure of Kaczynski always loomed behind the candidacy of Duda, and behind Trzaskowski one could easily see D. Tusk.

Thus, the presidential elections resounded far beyond the borders of Poland, with the European media outlets in strong anticipation of the results. One could easily observe how many leading media outlets outside the country did not hide their sympathies for Tshaskovsky. For example, the German Welt stated directly that Duda was flirting with the EU opponents in Poland in order to remain president. Another German tabloid Fakt (owned by Axel Springer) wrote that the incumbent president had pardoned the convicted pedophile. The point is that on March 14, Polish President Andrzej Duda pardoned seven people, including one pedophile. He was serving a sentence for the rape of his relative, and the rest of the pardoned were sentenced to probation for minor crimes. And his pardon took place at the insistent request of the mother of the convict, as well as the victim herself, who is his relative.

“Do the Germans want to elect Poland's president? Dirty trick!,” Andrzej Duda reacted to the publications in German media on elections in Poland, which almost caused a diplomatic scandal between Poland and Germany at the beginning of June. Representative of the German Embassy in Poland was summoned to the Foreign Ministry of Poland because of the "trend of publications in the German media."

Disagreements between Warsaw and Berlin over the media in Poland have existed for several years. German capital has long and firmly established itself in the Polish media space. For many years, German media giants have owned popular nationwide radio and television stations, as well as influential Internet portals. For example, Axel Springer publishes Newsweek and Forbes in Poland. However, Germans have never made a big secret of the fact that they were dissatisfied with the attitude of the current Polish authorities towards the media. Berlin, Brussels, and a number of other European capitals openly recognized the new Polish media law, proposed by the Conservative government and supported by the country's president, as undemocratic.

Even the authors of the law themselves directly said that it was intended to limit the influence of other countries, primarily Germany, on the Polish media space, and cited facts of such influence.

In addition, Andrzej Duda is committed to the conservative moral line, in particular on the issues of abortion and gay marriage. Duda's election campaign was based, among other things, on the protection of traditional values. Thus, he said that the "LGBT ideology" is more dangerous than the communist ideology, and promised to consolidate in the law a ban on adoption of children by same-sex couples. At the same time, the Polish leader stands for generous social assistance to poor families. This circumstance largely played into his hands in securing support from representatives of the Polish hinterland and small towns.

Duda's opponent, Rafal Tszaskowski, is a refined Polish intellectual who speaks of common European values. He received the main points in his support, mainly because the electorate was tired of the problems emerged during the coronavirus pandemic (rising unemployment, deteriorating social policy, etc.). In addition, Brussels made it very clear that it supported the candidacy of Tszaskowski. But even this support factor did not help in Tszaskowski’s competition with the more experienced rival. Polish voters said Yes to Andrzej Duda.

Prospects for the Polish economy

Popularity of Polish authorities in recent years has been attributed to the tangible progress made in the country's economy. As the sixth largest economy in the EU, Poland has demonstrated stable rates of economic growth in recent years.

As of 2019, the Polish economy has grown steadily over the past 28 years, which is a record in the EU. One of the reasons for this situation is the low cost of labour in the country with the availability of qualified personnel, which attracts investors.

With EU support, Poland received funds equivalent to almost two of the country's annual budgets. In 2018, GDP per capita in Poland was 81% higher than in 2003. The level of income and assets of Polish households is gradually catching up with those recorded in wealthier European countries. According to experts' forecasts in the pre-pandemic period, in the next 15 years Poland may become one of the 20 largest economies in the world.

In the past decade, the country has actively used the EU-backed membership preferences. Since joining the European Union, Poland has modernised its economy and achieved significant success, including the reconstruction of its transport infrastructure.

The economic successes of Poland have become the reason that Warsaw is increasingly becoming the initiator and conductor of large-scale transport and energy projects together with regional and non-regional players. In particular, Poland is involved in the Via Carpatia transport project. At first, the idea of a transport corridor was to connect the Eastern European EU member states with a highway. But later it was decided to involve Turkey and Ukraine in the initiative. In addition, Poland began to show interest in participating in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TCITR), where Azerbaijan is also actively involved.

Azerbaijan - Poland: Unchanged priorities

Warsaw's increasing role in regional and international affairs had a positive impact on the development of Polish-Azerbaijani cooperation.

We remember well the official visit of President Duda to Azerbaijan on May 31 - June 1, 2019. This was a response of the Polish leader to the visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Warsaw in June 2017. It was the first visit of Andrzej Duda and the President of Poland in general to Azerbaijan since 2011, when President Bronislaw Komorowski visited Baku. A new stage in the relations between the two countries began with the visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Poland in 2017.

In his speech, Mr. Duda said that the parties should redeem the time lost after the tragic death of Lech Kaczynski and intensify ties in all directions. The main focus of the Azerbaijani-Polish cooperation is the use of opportunities in the agro-industrial and transport spheres. Polish producers, in particular, are showing interest in the Azerbaijani market, which is the most solvent in the region. In general, the trade turnover between the two countries reaches $600 million, which indicates that there is a great potential for development. In addition, the Polish side would like to strengthen its economic presence in Azerbaijan in order to improve its position not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the Caspian region. For this purpose, the opportunities of the free economic zone in Alat can be used.

Poland is particularly interested in the transport infrastructure of Azerbaijan and the region. Azerbaijan has a similar interest in response. It is important for Baku to ensure access to European markets, as well as to have reliable trade, economic and political partners in the EU countries who could ensure the implementation of transit routes, of which Azerbaijan is an important component. It is known that the Polish PKP Linia Hutnicza Szerokotorowa Sp. z o.o. (LHS) is an associated member of the Trans-Caspian international transport route, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Georgia being the founders of the project. Parties are currently working on the possibility of implementing common transport routes using the infrastructure of the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Poland regards Azerbaijan as a transport hub with good opportunities for entering the markets of the Central Asian region and further to China.

Parties note the availability of opportunities in the agro-industrial and energy sectors and the chemical industry. At the same time, Azerbaijan and Poland are dissatisfied with insignificant indicators of foreign direct investments made by Polish companies in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani companies in Poland. Some advances are only seen in specific portfolio investments and financial transactions.

An important component of the visit was a business forum held with the participation of the presidents. By the way, in 2018 there was already one forum with the participation of entrepreneurs from both countries.

Concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, the Polish side reaffirmed the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and expressed a desire to promote a peaceful dialogue based on the norms and principles of international law. In particular, Poland recognises Baku's right to sovereignty over all the occupied territories and the possibility of solving the problem, taking into account the interests of all parties to the conflict.

On the whole, the visit reinforced the interest of both countries to continue the dialogue intensively. The same thing happened when Lech Kaczynski was President of Poland, when Baku represented the interests of Poland in the Caspian-Caucasian region, and Warsaw - the interests of Azerbaijan in the EU and Eastern Europe.

The re-election of Andrzej Duda as the President of Poland testifies that there should be no “surprises” in the current Azerbaijani-Polish relations. As for positive changes, as they say, there is no limit to perfection. There would be a desire. And the parties clearly have a desire.