LEAVING TO RETURN

The departure of Benjamin Netanyahu, who served as a prime minister of Israel even longer than the ideologist and founder of the modern Jewish state, David Ben-Gurion, is undoubtedly an important and significant event. Leaders of parties, which formed a broad coalition against the veteran prime minister and his Likud party, announced the establishment of a new coalition government.

However, this does not mean the end of the political crisis in Israel, causing the authorities to hold elections four times over the past two years. The new coalition consists of such categorically different political forces (left, right, centrists, and representatives of the Islamic party of Israel) that it would be right to recall the famous fable about a swan, pike and cancer. Thus, the new cabinet can hardly be stable and durable. This means that the outgoing prime minister has a chance to return.

New unique coalition

Incidentally, Netanyahu and his Likud party secured a relative majority of parliamentary mandates (30) in the last election, followed by Yesh Atid party, which had only 17 votes. But Netanyahu failed to form a government coalition by securing at least 61 mandates, as his traditional allies from among the religious and nationalist parties did not support the right bloc. As observers note, this happened also because Netanyahu's alleged allies should have had those with whom the prime minister had already worked but had ruined personal relations. Israel was rapidly heading for new elections, but an hour before the expiration of his mandate to form a government, the leader of the opposition Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, managed to form a new cabinet, albeit through a fierce dispute. The newly formed coalition government now includes Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid, Kahol-Laban by Benny Gantz, Yamina by Naftali Bennett, Our Home - Israel by Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli Party of Labour (Avoda) by Meirav Michaeli, New Hope (Tikva Khadasha) by Gideon Saar, Meretz by Nitzan Horowitz, as well as seven parties from all parts of the political spectrum and even an Arab party RAAM (Joint Arab List) ideologically close to Hamas.

The parties agreed that during the first two years before the new elections, the prime minister of Israel should be the leader of the right-wing Yamina party, Naftali Bennett, followed by the leader of Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid, in the next two years. At the same time, any development of the situation in the future will still indicate, if not a deep political crisis, then at least that the political landscape in Israel is seriously changing. Local media believe that the existing government is "the most absurd government in the history of Israel".

In fact, no one can predict how long the new coalition will be able to survive in real conditions. After all, it is possible to unite to counter Netanyahu, but it is not the same when it concerns interacting on various complex internal and external issues. For example, it is not surprising that the Arab parties outside the coalition immediately began to criticise the alliance under the leadership of Bennett, a well-known opponent of the idea of ​​a Palestinian state.

New old times

Remarkably, it is the first time in several decades RAAM party is part of the coalition, which is a sensation, especially after the incident that took place in Jerusalem in May 2021. The head of the Joint Arab List, Waleed Taha, called the agreement historic and expressed confidence that it would benefit the Palestinians and Arabs in general. It is reported that the government will allocate about $10 billion for various programs for the social development of the Arab sector over the next five years. A considerable amount is also intended to fight crime in the Arab sector. At the same time, majority of ordinary Arabs do not yet believe that the new Israeli authorities will initiate truly positive changes for them. Thus, Naftali Bennett himself, who served in the special unit of the Israeli army Sayeret Matkal and calls himself an ultranationalist, categorically rejects the proposed so-called two states solution for Israelis and Palestinians. He claims that Israel has historical rights to the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the 1967 Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

The right-wingers also express their discontent. Almost immediately after the election, Benny Gantz and Gideon Saar disputed over a new mechanism to control Palestinian construction in Zone C, which is under fully control of Israel. At least, we can expect serious disagreements over the issues of ministerial appointments and the structure of government, as well as regarding the adoption of the state budget. It is also noted that MPs from Yamina will definitely not agree to the bill on the proportional representation of Arabs and Muslims in government agencies and companies. Therefore, it is possible that the current triumph of Bennett may be the beginning of his end as a political figure. According to Bennett’s biography, he is undoubtedly a strong person and a political leader, but he is hardly more prudent and dodgy than Netanyahu. Moreover, many of Bennett's current so-called allies also have considerable experience and weight in politics, and they can hardly be called friends, take the same Lieberman, for example.

Netanyahu understands the situation very well and is trying to prevent the moves of the new coalition, calling it "leftist" and "dangerous", "the largest election fraud in the history of the state or even in the history of democracies" and posing a threat to the country and the people of Israel. Netanyahu argues that such a motley coalition can perform smoothly and with dignity in the international arena, especially when the current US administration intends to return to the nuclear deal with Iran.

What's next?

It is clear that Netanyahu, who has demonstrated a phenomenal ability for political survival for many years, is not going to leave this time either. For example, on June 6, Maariv reported that Netanyahu's team had an idea to announce his resignation from his post, remaining a simple Knesset deputy without any post. It was planned that Saar and Bennett could join the Likud party without Netanyahu to create a right-wing government. But neither Saar nor Bennett reacted to the news.

It was also said that the planned march with the religious Israeli groups through the Old City of Jerusalem, including through the Damascus Gate, could postpone the establishment of a new coalition government. All these facts show that Netanyahu still has many ideas in his mind and trumps in his sleeve. Not to mention that the most likely scenario - going into opposition - gives the Likud leader certain starting positions. Indeed, in the Israeli political system, the opposition leader plays a rather significant role. Basically, all Netanyahu needs now is to wait for the system to restart and reset.

At the same time, the situation around the unsinkable politician is not that promising. The corruption scandal involving Netanyahu, which broke out more than three years ago, is still active. While the prime minister is not formally immune from prosecution, in practice Netanyahu did have some protection. Moreover, there were some external factors, such as the coronavirus epidemic, which hindered the progress of investigation. But if Netanyahu leaves, he will not be able to control the political agenda.

But the biggest concern in the context of all the ongoing changes is the economic situation after a series of hard lockdowns, a divided society, the recent aggravation of the Palestinian question, which led to an 11-day war in May, as a result of which Israel had to defend itself from hundreds of unguided rockets. A new factor in the traditional Arab-Israeli confrontation was the intensification of the Israeli Arabs. In the mixed regions of the country, where Jews and Arabs live very close, the situation is still extremely tense, which ultimately quite strongly affects the political agenda in Israel. In addition, the head of Israel's General Security Service (Shabak) made a rare public statement warning of possible violence in the country. “Recently, we have identified an increase in extremely aggressive and inflammatory speech, especially on social networks,” stated Nadav Argaman.

The Israeli TV channel 12 conducted a poll, which showed that 46% of Israelis support the Bennett-Lapid government, 38% would prefer new elections - the fifth in about two years, 15% did not declare their preferences. However, the hopes of the tired people of Israel may not come true. It is obvious that the “government of changes” will not bring the long-awaited changes, since it simply cannot do it. Even its supporters understand the situation. So, the internal crisis in Israel continues, with its outcome not yet clear.