SHOW AND TELL TIME

A very important event in the post-conflict era took place on July 3, when Yerevan handed over to Baku the maps of the minefields in the Fizuli and Zangilan districts of Azerbaijan. It was possible with the mediation of Russia and after the return of 15 saboteurs detained by Azerbaijan after November 10, 2020 to Armenia. It is difficult to find the real reason why the Armenian side took this step in the news reports and how the post-war process will develop in the foreseeable future. To understand everything, perhaps it is better to trace the chronology of previous events.

Elections and leapfrog

All weeks before the elections in Armenia, the situation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border was more reminiscent of the situation on the front line during the conflict. There was an impression that the Armenian sabotage was aimed at slowing down the establishment of the border infrastructure on the Azerbaijani side, creating protracted tensions in order to torpedo the implementation of the November 10, 2020 agreement.

Thanks to analysis of the situation, it is possible to assume that it was the military-political leadership of Armenia that gave a green light to commit the sabotage, and monitor the operation through Armenian commanders of military units who keep close relations with the representatives of the Armenian opposition and fulfil their orders. Obviously, the tension was used as a factor of influence on the internal political and regional situation in the period before the elections.

Thus, the military-political tension in the region shifted to the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, which made it possible to shift the view of the situation from the former Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to a border conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Yerevan tried to manipulate the situation by involving the third parties in the conflict and by exerting permanent military-political pressure on Azerbaijan.

It is difficult to say who is more beneficial in terms of manipulating the public opinion using border tensions - the authorities or the opposition. Yet it is clear that like many decades before, the conflict theme fits well into the internal political confrontation in Armenia, giving one or another side a chance to earn points.

Either way, Pashinyan's victory in the elections gives rise to hope that the situation in the local Armenian political field will somewhat stabilise, and this will also affect the situation on the border.

Washington starts and wins

While the pre-election campaign was in full swing in Armenia, Philip Reeker, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, visited the region. Thanks to his assistance, it was possible to reach an agreement on the transfer of minefield maps to Azerbaijan in exchange for the return of the Armenian saboteurs detained after the war. The acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan publicly confirmed that the transfer of the so-called "prisoners of war" took place with the assistance of the Georgian side, as well as the visit of Philip Rikeer. The latter, in turn, was instructed by the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to achieve a breakthrough on the issue of saboteurs. In fact, Yerevan thus opened the door for the active involvement of the US in post-conflict processes in the region.

In fact, this policy could not get approval from Moscow, which remains of the view that all remaining controversial issues should be resolved in a trilateral format between Moscow, Baku, and Yerevan. Moscow has repeatedly made statements urging Armenia to transfer the minefield maps to Azerbaijan. Official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Maria Zakharova, said that the issue of transferring minefield maps to Azerbaijan is directly within the competence of the Russian peacekeepers, the Russian Ministry of Emergencies.

In his attempt to get Washington’s support, as well as that of the influential Armenian lobby in the United States before the elections, Pashinyan tried to create an impression that he was playing a more independent game, without looking back at Moscow. For him, who had lost the recent war, it was important to create the illusion of his ability to independently resolve complex current issues, to pursue an independent foreign policy course. As if it was both Yerevan and Washington that suggested Tbilisi to get involved in the current regional processes, to become a platform for mediation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani disputes. This also could not but worry the Kremlin. Willingly or not, Pashinyan deliberately violated Moscow's monopoly as a mediator of post-conflict processes in the region, trying to play on contradictions between Russia and the US in the South Caucasus. Undoubtedly, Washington and Tbilisi became the main external beneficiaries of this policy.

Azerbaijan is trying to maintain an equidistant distance from all these players, guided by its own national interests. The transfer of minefield maps of Aghdam contributes to demining and the establishment of a peaceful life, strengthening the security system of Azerbaijan in Garabagh.

After the acting Armenian prime minister publicly admitted that he had maps of minefields, it was more effective to put pressure on Armenia to hand over the maps.

Azerbaijan’s diplomatic advance

Almost immediately after the announcement of the voting results in Armenia, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Russia had a telephone conversation. The key topic of conversation was the implementation of the November 10, 2020 trilateral agreement. On June 23, the press office of the President of Azerbaijan reported that Ilham Aliyev called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and also discussed the prospects for the implementation of the trilateral statement.

Thus, after the victory of the Civil Dialogue party led by the acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan in the parliamentary elections in Armenia, the issue of responsibility of the Armenian side for the implementation of specific points of the trilateral agreement became relevant again. It is not only about the complete withdrawal of the Armenian military from the territory of Garabagh, but also about the transfer of minefield maps, return of internally displaced persons to their places of permanent residence, unblocking of communications and the border demarcation.

After the Armenian authorities confirmed their legitimacy at the elections, they no longer have reasons for delaying the implementation of the trilateral agreements. The Azerbaijani side can insist on putting pressure on Yerevan if it evades its obligations.

Azerbaijan could get from Armenia the maps of minefields with about 92,000 anti-tank and anti-personnel mines planted during the occupation of Fizuli and Zangilan districts of Azerbaijan ten days after the above conversation, at the initiative of Moscow and as a result of the active work of Azerbaijani diplomats.

After the provision of the map of minefields in Aghdam with the mediation of Washington and Tbilisi, the Russian side could show concern over the activity of its geopolitical opponents in this matter. There was an impression that the initiative in this sensitive issue is in the hands of the US and Georgia, while Moscow has repeatedly offered to resolve it through its mediation. The Pashinyan government could have been pressured so that the Armenian side agreed to provide maps of the minefields of two districts at once with Russian mediation. This was done in exchange for the transfer to Yerevan of 15 Armenian soldiers sentenced to imprisonment in Azerbaijan, but whose terms under arrest expired. Moreover, it is known that the Armenian side was striving for more – to resolve the issues of "hostages" in entirety, not partially.

On the other hand, Fizuli and Zangilan are districts which connect the western districts of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (through the Zangezur Corridor). Thus, we can conclude that Moscow is solving another problem for itself - accelerating the restoration of communication lines to Armenia and increasing the effectiveness of the Trilateral Commission, which works thanks to the mediation and organisational assistance of Russia.

Do provocations make sense?

On July 6, at about 17:50 local time, illegal Armenian armed groups on the territory of Azerbaijan temporarily controlled by the Russian military fired on Azerbaijani army units deployed in Aliaghaly village of Aghdam district. According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, one Azerbaijani soldier was wounded. He received first aid and was evacuated to a military hospital. The press service of the Ministry of Defense reported that the command of the Russian army stationed in the region and the Turkish-Russian Joint Monitoring Centre were informed about the incident in order to investigate it.

The incident shows that the presence of illegal Armenian armed groups in Azerbaijan can significantly worsen the regional situation. Remarkably, during Nikol Pashinyan's short-term visit to Moscow on July 7, according to the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation D. Peskov, "the parties discussed various nuances of the implementation of trilateral agreements and trade and economic cooperation between the countries." Issues related to the resumption of the activities of the trilateral commission, complete withdrawal of all illegal forces from the territory of Azerbaijan and the final delimitation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border continue to remain important topics.

Elections in Armenia ended with a convincing victory for Pashinyan. He will form a new government in Armenia, which will make it impossible to delay the fulfilment of the trilateral obligations.

It seems that Pashinyan understands this well and intended to bargain for the most profitable conditions for himself during his recent visit to Moscow. But nobody doubts any more that he will have to fulfil the obligations under the trilateral agreement.