SPECIAL PATH

On July 15-16, Tashkent hosted the international conference Central and South Asia: Regional Interconnection. Challenges and Opportunities. The event was attended by the President of Uzbekistan Shovket Mirziyoyev, President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani, Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan, EC Vice President Josep Borrell, heads of the ministries of foreign affairs of Central Asian countries, Russia, India, China and other states. Azerbaijani delegation was headed by the Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev. Although the central issue of the conference was the construction of sustainable communication lines in Central and South Asia, the Afghan issue was one of the key issues on the agenda.

The Afghan uncertainty

Undoubtedly, speaking about the perspective development of multilateral cooperation in Central and South Asia, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, it is impossible not to touch the issue of security guarantees. Unfortunately, in recent decades, the emergence of various terrorist organisations creates serious risks that significantly hinder the implementation of large-scale regional and transregional projects.

With regard to the above-mentioned geography, the ongoing events in Afghanistan and around the country are the key destabilising factor. The withdrawal of American troops and the military of the US allies from Afghanistan has intensified the processes, which rapidly changed the geopolitical context in the region. The Taliban movement, claiming power, has significantly strengthened its position in both the country and internationally. With the rapid advancement of the armed groups in the country, the Taliban leadership becomes more confident and puts tougher conditions before the Afghan authorities and international intermediaries, hence achieving full control over the military-political situation in the country. Several months ago, they were inclined to have an equal dialogue with the Kabul authorities. But today the main conditions that the Taliban puts forward to continue the dialogue increasingly look like the demand for the surrender of the current Afghan government. This is not surprising, as it is unofficially reported reported that the Taliban already controls 85% of the Afghan territory. Therefore, to assume the establishment of a coalition government with the current government would be very naive.

Taliban, which controls almost the entire perimeter of the Afghan border, except with Uzbekistan, are actively communicating with international intermediaries. For the latter, it is very important that the conflict does not shift on the territory of neighbouring states. However, the Taliban representatives openly make it clear that they do not intend to interfere in the affairs of the neighbours claiming that it is a purely intra-Afghan conflict. But no matter how convincing their statement may sound, the risk of penetration of destructive forces from Afghanistan to the neighbouring territories remains stable.

Over the past decades, international radical groups from the Middle East and neighbouring regions have appeared in the country. They have formed support bases for the subsequent penetration into the territory of neighbouring countries, primarily the Central Asian states. Although the Taliban has disagreements and conflicts with military groups such as the Islamic State, some of these groups remain partners and allies of the Taliban, particular Al-Qaida. There are real concerns that, with the arrival of the Taliban authorities, Afghanistan will turn into a convenient bridgehead allowing to expand their sphere of influence outside the country. This, obviously, bears serious geopolitical risks.

At the same time, despite a difficult situation in Afghanistan, there are apparently no significant obstacles for implementing large-scale cross-border programs. At least, Uzbekistan's leadership is determined to build a solid system of political relations in the region based on the implementation of important infrastructure projects. One of them is the railway communication line Termez Mazar-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar. During his recent trip to Surkhandarya, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev said that the railway would be one of the largest projects in the history of Uzbekistan. According to him, the World Bank has already agreed to allocate $35 million for the project. "I call it a project of the century," said the president and added that Russia would soon join the project as well.

Incidentally, during the opening ceremony of the conference and plenary sessions, the construction of the Termez-Mazar-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar line was one of the key topics of discussions. The project will ensure the shortest route connecting Central and South Asia and will create conditions for combining transport routes passing through the centre of Eurasia.

With the growing costs of marine container transportation, the use of combined delivery with the leading role of railway transport steadily increases as well. Therefore, Uzbekistan, which is at the intersection of North-South and East-West routes, becomes an important subregional transport hub. According to specialists, after the construction of the railway line, the transportation of one Uzbek container through Iran or Pakistan will be 3-4 times cheaper and the duration of the trip will decrease 4-5 times. In parallel, the line will ensure the stable economic development, boosting the development of entrepreneurship in the region. To enhance foreign economic activities in Afghanistan and Pakistanm Mr. Mirziyoyev instructed the relevant authorities to build an international shopping centre in the south of the country.

Central Asia and new challenges

The project is of great interest to the regional partners of Uzbekistan, primarily for Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan. It is supposed to increase the volume of communication between Central Asia and Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, which will make it possible to balance the interests of both regional and non-regional partners.

Amid the pandemic and decreasing economic growth in many countries, Central Asia still looks like a rather attractive region for investment. The launch of significant transportation projects is an additional factor that stimulates the interest of energy players in the region. Russia and China are traditionally the main foreign policy and economic partners of Central Asian states. Therefore, a number of US experts believe that the goal of the Great American Strategy should be the prevention of the dominance of any country in the heart of Eurasia.

It is also speculated that China, Russia and Iran use the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a pretext to convince the Central Asian leaders that the US and the West in general have weakened.

It has been some time since the idea of Central Asia being a geostrategic unit expected to have a serious impact on the global balance of power has been introduced in the analytical sphere. According to American experts, Washington's goal should be to allow all regional countries, including Afghanistan, maintain balanced relations with the large powers.

Washington persistently offers these states to form a new geopolitical community – Central Asia plus Afghanistan. At the same time, it is emphasized that not the external powers but mainly the regional states have a real perspective for establishing regional integration.

Meanwhile, the regional states understand that the creation of a real new Silk Road must be encouraged from the inside, not the outside of the region. In parallel, it is the external powers that possess a significant amount of material tools for investment. Therefore, a key to the successful development of the region was and remains building mutually beneficial relations with influential power centres and leading loan institutions and funds. The regional countries are recipients of multi-billion funds provided for the implementation of important infrastructure projects. By and large, this funding boosts the economic activity and the inclusiveness of the national economies of these countries.

Azerbaijan’s interests in the region

Thanks to cooperation with the regional countries, Azerbaijan believes that the connection of transport routes of Azerbaijan and Central Asia will make it possible to materialise its transit potential and provide better access to markets for suppliers. Azerbaijan consistently supports the improvement of cross-border communication through the integrated transport corridors. At the same time, the government pays attention to the simplification of transit, digitalisation of operations, as well as the elimination of regulatory and procedural barriers for transport and trade.

"Being at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan and its partners in the region, participates in the whole complex of initiatives and projects aimed at the development of transport and energy communications, strengthening regional and continental trade," Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Shahin Mustafayev, said.

The extent of Azerbaijan’s involvement into mutually beneficial decisions to build cooperation in the region is dictated primarily by the geographical position, economic potential of the country and its history. Azerbaijan attaches special importance to the development of regional projects. Despite the pandemic, Baku has introduced all the measures to ensure the uninterrupted operation of international transport and energy communications.

Together with its partners, Azerbaijan is actively developing the median transport corridor East-West designed to ensure transportation of transit cargo between China, Central Asia and Europe, ensuring the access to the ports of Georgia and Turkey.

Azerbaijan is one of the first countries supporting the Chinese initiative One Belt, One way. In 2015, two countries signed a memorandum on the joint promotion of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Active interaction in this direction is carried out.

Another exclusively important project is the International Transport Corridor North-South. Together with the partners in the project - Iran and Russia – Azerbaijan actively promotes and develops this transport route. It will also make it possible for India and other countries of South Asia to access the markets in CIS and Eastern Europe through the port of Chabahar and then through the corridor.

To increase the potential of cargo transportation in addition to existing facilities, a new international multimodal corridor is created together with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Georgia.

New opportunities for the new geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus are emerging after the solution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as a result of the victory of Azerbaijan in the 44-day war and the liberation of the territories previously occupied by Armenia.

Hostilities ceased after signing the trilateral statement of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia on November, 2020. This document provides for, among other things, unlocking and restoring transport and economic communications in the region.

Currently, there is an ongoing work on the Zangezur transport corridor, which will be part of the East-West corridor. It will open up huge opportunities and new perspectives for all the countries of the region.

In fact, the corridor will contribute to the further integration of the Mediterranean and Caspian basins in the Great Silk Road and the North-South corridor.

Undoubtedly, the unlocking of communications in the emerging realities of the region will warrant peace, security, stability, development and mutually beneficial cooperation not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the whole Eurasia.