LESSONS LEARNT FROM POLITICAL PUNCH-FEST

Presentation of the new government's program in any parliament is a priori a significant event. It is when the prime minister is expected to provide clear promises, guidelines and forecasts, while his team provides the details of general directions.

Today, there are three forces represented in the Armenian parliament. 71 of 107 seats are controlled by Pashinyan's supporters from his Civil Agreement bloc. The Armenia Alliance, which unites the Dashnaks with the supporters of Robert Kocharian, has 29 mandates. The I Have Honour political bloc has only seven seats. At first glance, Nikol Pashinyan may seem to feel quite confident and not be afraid of a threat from the opposition. But this proved to be a wrong assumption from what we saw on the August 24 parliamentary session. The scuffle, which took place on the same day in the parliament, between the deputies and the parliament’s security service has been widely discussed since, and not only in Armenia.

Fistfights in parliament

It all started when Anna Mkrtchian of the I Have Honour faction was delivering her speech from the rostrum. This political association is in fierce opposition to Nikol Pashinyan. Its backbone is made up of supporters of the former head of the National Security Service, Artur Vanetsian, leader of the Motherland Party, and the former ruling Republican Party of Serzh Sargsyan. The latter, however, decided not to go to parliament.

Ms. Mkrtchian did exactly what she was expected to do. Instead of asking questions of the prime minister, she began listing his mistakes. Then she said that Pashinyan came to the parliamentary session with an impressive group of security guards. At some point, Pashinyan's supporters from Civil Contract responded to her by shouting from their seats. Anna Mkrtchian did not stop and called Pashinyan a defeatist. Speaker Alen Simonian could not bear it any more, and she turned off the microphone for Mkrtchian. The skirmish, however, continued, and Simonyan ordered Anna Mkrtchian to leave the session hall, thereby demonstrating the character of the Armenian democracy. Mkrtchian did not obey. Then the speaker called security ordering them to throw the troublemaker out. But this time it was the turn of Mkrtchian’s supporters to defend her...

The video of a spectacular fight in the Armenian parliament has immediately become viral. Artsvik Minasian, a deputy from the opposition bloc Hayastan (Armenia), said that during the incident, security officers hit him on the head and legs, tore his shirt, hence he demanded investigation. Nikol Pashinyan, however, defended his guards. Commenting on the incident, he thanked them for fulfilling their official duties. Moreover, according to Pashinyan, he instructed them "not to beat anyone in the toilet." Addressing the Dashnaktsutyun faction, prime minister recalled an old scandalous story: “If you are talking about a crime, let me remind you that the murder of your own party member Poghos Poghosyan in the toilet of the Poplavok Cafe is currently under investigation. You have been saying for ten years that he was beaten and killed in the toilet.”

Indeed, the sensational incident took place in September 2001 in the Poplavok Cafe in Yerevan. It coincided with the celebrations of the 1700th anniversary of the adoption of Christianity in Armenia. Many eminent guests came to the country, and it was planned to hold a concert at the same cafe with the participation of celebrities. The then President of Armenia Robert Kocharian decided to personally attend the concert and also invited Charles Aznavour there. Since Poplavok was considered sort of pocket of democracy in Yerevan, one could hardly imagine that admissions  would be by passes or lists of invitees. Thus, a group of Dashnaks from Georgia found itself sitting next to the president. Leader of the group, Poghos Poghosyan, was reported of taking jabs against Kocharian throughout the event. There are different opinions as to what exactly might have breached Kocharian’s patience – "Hello, Rob!" or "the son of a Turk". But at some point, one of Kocharian's bodyguards asked Poghosyan to follow him for a small talk in the… toilet, where his body was found later.

Meanwhile, a group of deputies from the ruling Civil Contract faction and the opposition blocs Armenia and I Have Honour fought with each other in the parliament on August 25, after Hayk Sargsyan of the ruling party called all defense ministers traitors, because they condoned bribing the military officials for getting exempted from army service.

"I believe that all those defense ministers, under whom exemption from the military service was bought for money, are traitors," Sargsyan said. The head of the Armenia faction, former defense minister Seyran Ohanyan threw a bottle of water at him, provoking a massive brawl.

Incidents in the Armenian parliament and subsequent statements by Pashinyan demonstrate us the current situation in Armenia better than the program of the new government.

Behind the scenes

Pashinyan tried to avoid accentuated statements and questions like ‘did the security have the right to drag a woman deputy out of the parliamentary hall?’ and ‘what’s his reaction to the incident if the parliamentary session, where the government is presenting its program, has grown into a fist fight?’. He was solving a different problem, accusing the former leaders of the country from the so-called Garabagh clan of the situation.

Fights in parliament clearly showed the divide existing in Armenian society between Pashinyan's supporters, on the one hand, and the overthrown Garabagh Clan, on the other. There is plenty of evidence in the media and social networks of the clear hostility of the Yerevanians towards the Garabagh people. Such a division in the Armenian society is dangerous in itself. And even more so if the authorities openly contribute to it.

Meanwhile, Nikol Pashinyan is just trying to play on anti-Karabakh sentiments in Armenia making use of his last resource – the dislike of the residents of Yerevan towards the people from Garabagh.

At the same time, this whole story, from Alen Simonian's reaction to Anna Mkrtchian's remarks to Nikol Pashinyan's comments, including the fight involving Seyran Ohanyan, clearly demonstrates that the former leaders of the country remain a direct and clear threat to the incumbent prime minister of Armenia. Pashinyan himself perfectly understands how little the distribution of seats in parliament means if politics spills out to the streets. There, the Garabagh clan has a chance to put an impressive military fist against Pashinyan. Especially if the future coup is supported by public opinion.

Parliament, street and...

Nikol Pashinyan achieved a paradoxical and unexpected victory, having secured a majority in the parliament with the right to form a new government. But it was rather a vote against the Garabagh clan. In addition, back in 2018, at a relatively prosperous time for Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan's first program was called “a collection of toasts”. Today, the new team is set to accomplish a much more difficult mission. The war has seriously undermined the Armenian economy. Moreover, Armenian economy has lost its previous support through the plunder of the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Armenians already complain about indecently high prices for vegetables in the country. Power supply is under the threat too: while earlier Armenia received substantial volumes of power supply from Garabagh, now Yerevan has to supply Khankendi. But Armenia has problems with power supply and generation since the days of ‘velvet revolution’.

In addition, Armenia is still going through a painful process of fulfilling the conditions of surrender, especially including the delimitation of borders, opening of transport corridors, etc. This means that the prime minister's position will be undermined. In the best case scenario, this means to survive by all means. At worst, new populist adventures, mainly in Garabagh, where Yerevan is de facto trying to aggravate the situation, not realising that in the current balance of power, this means, in fact, a nationwide suicide.

Fights in parliaments happen in different countries, including in the State Duma of Russia and the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the parliament of Georgia. And in the Armenian parliament, fistfights are yet to set a new record of drama: in October 1999, five terrorists led by Nairi Hunanyan committed a mass execution there. But what happened in the Armenian parliament on August 24-25 is not just an incident. Everything is much more complicated. And it is more dangerous for the Armenian statehood.