TAIWAN PUZZLE

The growth of Chinese military activity in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly around Taiwan, has been a point of concern throughout the world. Especially in the US, which views this part of the Eastern Hemisphere as an important component of its sphere of interest.

Until recently, the US believed it could contain China's territorial ambitions. However, it has been is increasingly pointed out that its long-standing military superiority may not be enough to achieve this.

Think-tank evaluations and the US Department of Defense reports indicate that China has a real chance of winning the war against the US in the western Pacific. The Pentagon reported this year China's potential having already surpassed that of the US in several areas, including shipbuilding, conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as the integrated air defense systems.

In particular, this is evident amid China’s sharp and negative reaction to American military support to Taiwan, which has not stopped since 1949. Unlike previously when Beijing avoided threatening statements addressed to the US, now it prefers to use ones such as "those who play with fire will get burned", or "if separatist forces advocating Taiwan's independence provoke us, we will be forced to take drastic measures."

Political isolation

On January 1, 1942, the text of the Declaration of the United Nations was signed by the representatives of four countries, members of the anti-Hitler coalition: the USA, Great Britain, the USSR, and China. Four years later, these countries plus France became permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The nuance is that since 1912 China was called the Republic of China led by Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the Kuomintang party. In 1949, he lost the civil war to the Communist Party led by Mao Zedong and with about 2 million of his supporters moved to the island of Taiwan.

After that, the Republic of China, which actually existed only within the island, continued to represent all of China in the UN for more than 20 years, since the Communist Party ruling in mainland China renamed to the People's Republic of China (PRC) was not recognised by anyone in the world.

However, by 1971, it became impossible to ignore the existence of PRC any more. As a compromise, Chiang Kai-shek was offered to share the UN mission with Beijing. He bluntly refused and continued to claim power over the entire country.

Then the world community had no choice but to transfer the representation to PRC. But since the new member of the UN Security Council did not recognise the existence of another China, the Republic of China automatically received the status of an ‘unrecognised country’.

This led to the gradual diplomatic isolation of Taiwan from the international community. All countries wishing to cooperate with Beijing were obliged to break off diplomatic relations with Taipei. However, many of them still maintain informal relations with Taiwan through trade missions or cultural institutions. Today, the Republic of China has diplomatic relations with 15 countries only.

The US established official diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979 and had to close its embassy in Taipei.

Duality of perception

In today's complex diplomatic relations between China, Taiwan, and the US, even the slightest action or choice of words can be important. For example, the concept of ‘single China’ has different meanings for Beijing and Washington. For the former, this means that Taiwan is just a province of the mainland, not an independent state. For the second, it sounds more like ‘one China’ rather than the ‘united’ one. Official position of the US is that Taiwan's status has not been determined, but that does not mean that this should be done by force.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act states that the US decision to establish diplomatic relations with the PRC "is based on the expectation that Taiwan's future will be determined by peaceful means." The act also requires the US to provide "Taiwan with such quantities of weapons and services as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain an adequate self-defense capability."

The US has no formal agreement on Taiwan with Beijing either, which greatly impeded the establishment of normal relationships. The White House believed that it should not stop selling arms to Taiwan. The PRC authorities insisted that the sales violate the country's sovereignty.

After lengthy discussions in 1982, the US and the PRC came up with a description that would allow both sides not to yield their positions. Thus, the text of the joint communiqué does not indicate a specific date for the complete cessation of arms sales to Taiwan by the US, but it also indicates the US agreement to respect China's sovereignty. In turn, China indicated its commitment to maintain peaceful relations with Taiwan.

At first glance, it indeed looks like a diplomatic victory that allowed the two countries to overcome their differences. However, as history has shown, the document not only did not relieve tension in bilateral relations, but still serves as a pretext for mutual accusations.

The same dodgy wording of the document makes the two signatories interpret the essence of the document in their own way. The US, for example, assures that although the document does not directly indicate the relationship between the reduction in arms sales to Taiwan and the PRC's peaceful policy towards Taiwan, the text still implies it. China is building the same logical chain with respect to the US commitment to respect the sovereignty of the PRC and to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan.

The same duality in perception of realities is present in relations between China and Taiwan too. The only document governing their relationship is the so-called 1992 Consensus, which implies the recognition by the two sides of the unity and oneness of China, but on the condition that each side implies its own interpretation of a united China.

Yet the decision to find common ground while maintaining disagreements allowed the parties to reach a number of agreements. For example, there is a direct regular air and sea traffic between the mainland of China and Taiwan allowing Chinese tourists from the mainland to visit Taiwan, as well as mutual penetration of businesses. Investments of Taiwanese companies in the Chinese economy are estimated at $60 billion. Up to 1 million Taiwanese live and work in mainland China.

Causes

Many agree that there are three main reasons for the current sharp aggravation of Sino-American relations around Taiwan.

First, in 2016 the ruling Kuomintang party in Taipei was replaced by the Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates a peaceful reunification with Beijing and the official recognition of the island's independence by mainland China. In response, Beijing renewed its threats to seize the island by force and demanded Taiwan's remaining diplomatic partners break off their official relations with the island. In 2018, China was also able to get foreign companies, including airlines and hotels, to list Taiwan as part of China on their websites.

Secondly, since 2018, the Trump administration, after unsuccessful attempts to reverse the trade imbalance with China, decided to use Taiwan as leverage on Beijing by dramatically increasing military aid to the island, including, for example, the sale (for the first time in 30 years) of the latest generation fighter jets. The Biden administration continued this trend criticising China for carrying out ‘aggressive actions’ in the Taiwan Strait.

After the news that China had tested a hypersonic missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge, reporters asked Joe Biden if the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. He replied: "Yes, we have to do it."

Later the White House had to clarify that this does not mean a change in American policy in this region and that the US was only ready to continue to help Taiwan defend itself on its own. However, many view these statements as confirmation of Washington's commitment to the ‘strategic ambiguity policy’, in which it is deliberately unclear what it will actually do if China attacks Taiwan.

The third reason of existing confrontation is the uncompromising position of the Chinese President Xi Jinping on Taiwan, which greatly distinguishes him from his predecessors who preferred soft power.

Mr. Xi has promised to lead the "great renewal of the Chinese nation”, including the transfer of Taiwan under China's control. His harsh policies made it less likely that Taiwan would ever voluntarily agree to China's terms, especially after Hong Kong was imposed a national security law that effectively deprived it of its independence.

Difficult task

It is unlikely that war is inevitable or predetermined, partially because the economic and diplomatic consequences could be fatal for China.

Nevertheless, even if military manoeuvrers off the Taiwan coastline and in its airspace are aimed only at putting political pressure, not with an intention to unleash a real war, the growing financial, political, and military power of China, as well as the great ambitions of the current leaders of this country have made the preservation of security on the island extremely challenging. And it is not only the US that will have to puzzle over its solution.