GLIMPSES OF HOPE

Confrontation between the United States and China, Russia and the West, unprecedented natural disasters as the consequences of the climate change, coronavirus pandemic, energy crisis, many local conflicts, and the global mistrust of international players... Although it is hard to remember good things about 2021 on a global scale, we will nevertheless try to be optimistic, as the world has not slipped towards the Third World War. But, admittedly, the fears remain.

Russia vs West: who will fall first?

The year of 2021 will undoubtedly go down in history for the protracted confrontation between Russia and the West. Amid the situation in Ukraine and the expected commissioning of Nord Stream 2, (absence of) relations between Moscow and Washington reached a level of tension comparable with that of during the Cold War and the Cuban missile crisis. Throughout the year, the presidents of Russia and the US met in Geneva and had several telephone conversations. But this did not help much to correct the situation, especially since there seems to be no personal sympathy between them, rather the opposite, which is not surprising.

In his March interview with ABC, US President Joe Biden, asked if he considered his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin a murderer, nodded his head and said "Yes, I do." Later at the Geneva summit, it was possible to smoothen the rough edges of bilateral relations though. Yet by the end of the year the threatening rhetoric and actions have intensified from both sides. In December, Moscow handed over to Washington a draft agreement on security guarantees between Russia and the US and a draft agreement on security measures between the Russian Federation and the NATO member states. According to these documents, the Kremlin demands additional security guarantees from the US and NATO that the alliance will not use the territories of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to expand to the East. Many Western observers called Moscow’s move an ultimatum expecting Washington to put forward counter demands in response. Either way, the situation is pretty serious. It is clear that neither side wants a direct large-scale clash, since it will become catastrophic not only for the involved parties, but for the whole world. On the other hand, it is so difficult to fulfil the mutual demands in practice that the situation is gradually getting on edge, when one conflicting party expects the other one back down first.

Therefore, the situation significantly increases the risk of local and indirect conflicts. Especially in Ukraine, which is attracting an increasing number of Russian and NATO troops these days. Logically, the Kremlin should not harbour expansionist plans against Kiev, as this would result in huge financial costs and trigger the most severe sanctions from the West. Therefore, even a military victory could become a Pyrrhic one. But has it ever been possible to explain the wars through logical assumptions? At the same time, it is arguable if the US and EU, that is—the collective West, are entirely confident in their own moves. For example, there are many distractions in the US from the economic issues to internal divisions.

"All Quiet on the Western Front"

It is worth mentioning that the Americans will remember the beginning of 2021 as a yet another striking moment of their history. On January 6, Donald Trump's supporters broke into the Capitol and occupied the building for several hours. The incident took place when the election results were being discussed and the votes were to be certified in the Capitol. At least five people were killed and dozens of police officers were injured. However, on January 20, Joe Biden was officially confirmed as the 46th President of the United States. It is impossible, however, to say that this put an end to the disagreements in the American society, which seems to be heavily pregnant of anxiety and instability.

By the way, we can see the same confusion among the Europeans. Britain has been living without the EU for two years now; France is preparing for the presidential elections and Germany elected a new chancellor. November marked the end of the Angela Merkel rule taken over by SPD spokesman Olaf Scholz. Merkel had been in power for more than fifteen years. We still need time to understand how the change in the leadership of the main driver of the EU—Germany—will affect the country. The coalition government led by the Social Democrats is indeed very motley and capable of adopting non-standard and unexpected decisions. Moreover, Merkel left her post amid growing discontent of the Germans with issues concerning both domestic and foreign policy, including the energy crisis, unresolved migration crisis, and pandemic restrictions.

Meanwhile, the new Anglo-Saxon bloc AUKUS has brought forward the issue of the development of a united European army. In other words, the year of 2021 turned out to be difficult for Europeans, while the coming one does not seem to promise any relief either.

Climate, logistics, Internet

Another challenge for Europeans, and not only for them, is the transition to “green energy” associated with the climate agenda and the unprecedented growth of prices for the natural gas. Also, climate change was almost the key newsmaker in 2021 due to phenomenal misfortunes experienced in different parts of the planet throughout the year, including minus 20°C frosts in Texas, which left millions of people without heat, power, and water; huge fires in Russia, as well as in the resort areas of Turkey, Greece; large floods in Western and Central Europe, killing more than 200 people, and many more. All these changes require the introduction of urgent counter measures, such as determining their reasons and ways to save and minimise damages. On the other hand, a group of experts believe that the only objective of the updated climate change agenda is again to ensure, however trivial it might sound, a global redistribution of property, resources, and influence. Thus, during the COP-26 climate summit held in Glasgow in early November and attended by representatives of 200 countries, the participants reached an agreement to adjust national climate goals by the end of 2022, that is—three years earlier than planned previously. Although few people believe that this will lead to concrete results, including a growing beneficial effect on the environment and a decreasing number of natural disasters and other problems. Yet there is no doubt that the issue of climate change has finally turned into a geopolitical and economic factor directly related to national security.

In that same spirit the world community reviewed the global logistics routes, the development of large infrastructure facilities, and the Internet. It became especially evident in March, when due to gusting winds the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal. The incident incurred losses in world trade in the amount of $230 billion and made Joe Biden declare a state of emergency.

Another incident took place in October, when a global blackout of social networks, including Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, etc., lasted seven hours. This made a group of individuals around the world recognise that something has irreversibly changed in this world, including our growing dependence on the Internet, which covers almost all the areas of our daily life from energy supply and transport to banking systems and army. So, it boils down to the safety and well-being of each of us. They also started talking about the growing monopoly of Facebook, which makes it necessary to ensure serious diversification in this area. The talks stopped after some time though. It seems they forgot about the growing problem. It seems everything is working normal as before. Until next time...

Nominations of the year

Meanwhile, a truly significant and unexpected event of the past year was, undoubtedly, the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban to power and the proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Americans’ abrupt and demonstrative decision to leave Afghanistan gave rise to many assumptions, including conspiracy theories. Whatever it was, the country has once again become an arena of geopolitical battle between the regional powers, including China, Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, Emirates, Great Britain, and the EU. And the twenty-year-old US mission in Afghanistan seems to end in nothing. Although one can argue whether this is a failure of the US in this part of the world, as it largely depends on how far the interests of China extend.

In 2021, the US confrontation with China has become even tougher. The Biden administration has intensified it even more than Trump through the creation of international coalitions against China. Remarkably, many observers view the exiting tension Russian-American relations in the context of Washington’s confrontation with Beijing. This has become more obvious after the talks between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, when both leaders paid special attention to efforts to form an independent financial structure to service trade operations between Russia and China. Despite the events of 2021, China seems to be quite confident. It celebrated the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party and improved its position in the conflict with Taiwan.

Another unresolved and painful issue in international relations in 2021 was the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program. Iran now has new president, Ebrahim Raisi, who has to solve many critical social problems associated with Western sanctions and the consequences of climate change. Yet Tehran does not want to give up its current positions.

It is difficult to predict how the existing problems develop in 2022. But one thing is certain: the situation will not remain calm globally. There are optimistic forecasts too. For example, the founder of Microsoft, billionaire Bill Gates recently said that "if the world community takes all the necessary steps to combat the spread of the coronavirus, including the rapidly spreading Omicron strain, the pandemic could end in 2022." WHO is also looking positively at the turn of events in 2022, expecting the end of the protracted pandemic.

We can only hope that most conflicts and controversial issues will be resolved situationally and from a pragmatic point of view. Unfortunately, the world is going through a turbulent period when a relative guarantee of security is not the prospect of how good everyone can be if the differences are settled, but how bad the situation can be in the event of a full-scale crisis...