RUNNING-UP FOR REVENGE

Armenia is going through yet another dramatic internal political turnaround. Leaders of the ousted Garabagh Clan have reminded of themselves by challenging both Nikol Pashinian and his ruling team almost simultaneously.

Two gauntlets for prime minister

On December 18, the Republican Party of Armenia established by Serzh Sargsyan to his own liking held a congress in Yerevan. As expected, the third president of Armenia was re-elected as the leader of the party. In his inaugural speech, he seized an opportunity to address Pashinian's voters, who should have been "fed up with the shish-kebab democracy": "Do not blame me for your own mistake. I did not force you to take part in this adventure and then go and kiss on the forehead of the most ranting donkey in the herd."

Robert Kocharian, Armenia's second president, took the floor after his successor. He held a press conference where he presented a list of accusations against Nikol Pashinian. He described the situation with democratic freedoms in Armenia with a single phrase: "Kim Jong-un would have died of envy if he had seen what was going on in Armenia." He also criticised the government's work in the defense sector, saying it was unprofessional to change defense ministers ‘like socks’, that is—too often, when the appointees failed to fulfil their obligations. In one year, three defence ministers and two chiefs of the General Staff were replaced in Armenia. Kocharian also recalled Pashinian's words "we will not fight for a single mountain”, noting that Armenia was a mountainous country and this kind of statements could be interpreted as a signal to Azerbaijanis "to come and do what they want on our territories." He said it was impermissible that the government was doing nothing to re-equipping the Armenian army. And that it was a shame that Armenia's losses in the Second Garabagh War had not yet been made public. He then said that the Armenian authorities were not at all interested in a combat-ready army, which was sad to realise.

Old actors in a new style?

It is not the first time that the members of the Clan remind of themselves after Armenia’s surrender in the 2020 war.  Oddly enough, both Kocharian and Sarkisian emerged on the Armenian political stage simultaneously.

The outcome of local elections, especially in West Zangezur (Syunik in Armenian), was a disaster for the Pashinian administration. Frightened by the results, the authorities immediately began to arrest the heads of communities where the voters did not support the ruling Civic Agreement Party.

The opposition and other political circles in Armenia understand very well the reasons of this failure, which boils down to the demarcation and delimitation of borders.

A border trap or a window of opportunity?

During the occupation of Garabagh and East Zangezur, Armenians have settled on a number of territories along the borderline of Azerbaijan with Armenia. The owners of houses, farms, gardens, orchards, wind turbines, and even gold mines had no doubt that their property was on sovereign Armenian territory. Now they have to part with these lands and the facilities on them. All attempts by Pashinian to stall the issue of demarcation and delimitation have failed. Mediators now demand him to demonstrate real progress. Azerbaijan, including during the clashes at Lake Qaragöl and Böyük İşıqlı volcano, has demonstrated that it could go on with this issue on its own. Thus, Pashinian finds himself in a very unpleasant position. While he can persuade the voters in Yerevan, Vanadzor, and Gyumri by statements such as "we will not fight over a single mountain", the same statement sounds different to those who have left their homes and businesses on that mountain after years of occupation. No wonder that they vote against Pashinian in Zangezur.

Furthermore, the outcome of the Brussels summit demonstrated that Pashinian's trump card—Western support—was not working either. The final statement by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, was a clear diplomatic victory for Azerbaijan and a failure for Armenia. Yerevan's diplomatic defeat following the military one is a fait accompli.

However, Armenia is also expected to face legal troubles in future. In 2020, Armenians claimed that they had to compensate $50 billion to Azerbaijan for the losses during the year of occupation. This is a serious amount, especially for a very poor Armenia.

Dismal legacy

It may seem that trading revenge is the most obvious and logical tactic used by the Garabagh  Clan. First, for obvious reasons, the defeat in the 2020 war is a sensitive point for the incumbent prime minister. And the members of the Clan remind us that it is Pashinian that is responsible for the defeat in Garabagh and the shameful surrender.

However, their leaders are still wary of directly promising their voters revenge, reoccupation of Azerbaijani lands and something similar. Slogans of revenge did not help to win the first elections after the war and capitulation. But once in power, they will have to fulfil all these promises. And that is harder than mocking at Pashinian's disappointed fans. Especially in the current balance of power.

Furthermore, during his tenure, Pashinian has already made it clear that he did not inherit the best negotiating legacy from the previous authorities. After all, contrary to what many might think, the situation with the Armenian diplomacy was worse even before the war.

It is also worth mentioning that the Armenian society remembers well the realities of the Garabaghis reign accompanied with corruption, criminal dictatorship and other fringe benefits. And now Serzh Sargsyan has to admit at his party's congress the ‘shortcomings’ of his term in office, including corruption.

PR or conspiracy?

During the press conference, Robert Kocharian did not just talk about the army and the outcome of the war. He also reminded of the difficult economic situation, rising prices and many other unpleasant things going on in Armenia. But it is the problems with the military potential of Armenia that are interesting to hear from Kocharian.

One can assume that this is yet another attempt to sell the idea of revenge in Garabagh that the leaders of the clan decided to voice at the congress thinking that it was a spot-on venue for such a tactical move. Indeed, it looks like a very cunning form of lying, when they seemingly tell the truth, but in a way that makes the electorate misinterpret the meaning. Kocharian does not directly promise revenge, he only hints at Pashinian's "mistakes", but even this may be enough to make some voters take the bait.

Despite a series of purges in the army initiated by Pashinian, the Garabagh Clan still has a strong position in this institution. And they have a trump card, which is the territory currently controlled by the Russian peacekeepers in Garabagh, which, even a year after the war, is teeming with weapons and illegal armed groups. Let's be realistic: Armenian terrorists in Garabagh can shoot not only at Azerbaijani employees, as happened recently in Aghdam.

Recently there has been open opposition to Pashinian in Garabagh following the Armenian Prime Minister's sensational statements. During his live Facebook broadcast, Pashinian revealed details of the Garabagh negotiations before the war. He said that during the nearly 30-year history of the issue, Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) had never been considered in negotiations as an exclusively Armenian entity and the protection of the rights of the Azerbaijani population living there had been "the subject of negotiations". Moreover, in 2016 there was a ‘catastrophe’ in the negotiation process, when “the co-chairs proposed three packages of proposals in which, for the first time since 2011, Nagorno-Karabakh was not mentioned as an entity receiving an interim status. It was indicated however that the issue of clarifying the interim status of Garabagh had to be discussed at the UN Security Council.” And then he explained: "When the issue is reviewed by the UN Security Council, the decision is very predictable, because in 1993 the Council adopted a resolution which recognised the territorial integrity and inviolability of the borders of Azerbaijan, while Nagorno-Karabakh was called an eponymous region of Azerbaijan." Pashinian was then opposed by Araik Harutyunyan, the chieftain of separatists in Khankendi.

The top brass of the Garabagh Clan is not simply plotting internal political revenge. These may well be attempts to return to power through a conspiracy and an armed coup. After all, that’s exactly how Robert Kocharian made it to the office of the president of Armenia.

It is a big question if Nikol Pashinian can resist this plot.