RESETTING THE MIDDLE EAST

At the end of January, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog made his first official visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The visit also went down in history as the first ever formal visit of the head of the Jewish state to the UAE and the Gulf region.

The event was also interesting because the Israeli president's aircraft flew over the Saudi territory for the first time. All these events, no doubt, open a new page in the history of Middle East in terms of rapprochement between Israel and the Arab nations of the region.

During his two-day official visit, President Herzog met with the Crown Prince of the UAE's main emirate, Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and the Emir of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. He also spoke to members of the Jewish community of UAE, attended Expo 2020 Dubai and visited the Sheikh Zayed Mosque.

Herzog’s visit to the UAE was appreciated in both countries. In fact, for Israel, it was an event more important than the cooperation agreements signed with Egypt and Jordan back in 1978 and 1994, respectively.  The UAE is one of the Gulf states that has no direct borders with Israel. In other words, while Israel's relations with Egypt and Jordan have developed amid international pressure and concerned directly the borders of those states, reconciliation with the UAE shows that Israel has befriended with yet another Arab country.

The UAE is not the only state on the list of possible Arab friends of Israel. It is likely to be followed by Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and also Sudan. Thus, the Emirates became the place where the first significant step towards settling Arab-Israeli relations was taken.

On the other hand, the UAE is also one of the largest commercial, industrial and economic hubs in the region. Hence the economic attractiveness of the developing cooperation. Mutual trade turnover between the UAE and Israel is expected to double in the coming period compared to 2021, when it reached $1 billion. Indeed, trade relations between the two countries have been growing rapidly since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Israel is preparing to attract billions of dollars of investment from the UAE. And the reconciliation promises serious economic benefits for both sides. Israel sees relations with the UAE as very important and promising.

The Israeli president's visit to the UAE took place amid the rocket attacks of the Yemeni Houthis on the Emirates. However, there have been no reports of material damage to the UAE. According to local officials, the missiles were neutralised in air.

However, on January 17, the Houthis fired rockets into Abu Dhabi killing three people and injuring several others. By targeting oil terminals, seaports and airports of the UAE thousands of kilometres away, the Houthis are trying to cause great material and psychological damage to the Arab state. But, apparently, these strikes and similar steps contribute to nothing else but bringing the UAE closer to Israel and the US. For example, following the attacks the UAE leadership has intensified negotiations on the purchase of air defence systems from the US and Israel. And it turns out that due to serious lapses in ensuring their own air defense, the UAE's rapprochement with Israel and the US is inevitable.

UAE as icebreaker

Significance of the UAE to Israel is not limited to the former’s economic power, energy potential and prominent role as one of the largest regional and global trading platforms. Incidentally, 250,000 Israelis have visited the UAE since peace was established, which is quite a number.

It is also important that, despite its relatively small geographical size, the UAE has a strong credibility and diplomatic relations among the Muslim Arabs. Reconciliation between Israel and the UAE is sort of an invitation to other Middle Eastern countries. The so-called Abraham Accords signed between Bahrain, Israel and the UAE on September 15, 2020 in Washington set the stage for a new phase in the history of the region. The event was followed by the opening of embassies of both countries in Israel and the UAE, as well as the organisation of sports competitions, flights and reciprocal visits.

Late last year, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visited Abu Dhabi. He was followed by Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog. According to the latter, the ultimate objective of the reconciliation process is to establish peace and boost prosperity in the region, of which he has no doubt.

Underlining the importance of the Arab-Israeli alliance against the so-called Iranian threat, President Herzog also said his visit to the UAE could also be regarded as an Israeli attempt to strengthen ties in the region amid ongoing international talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

A few days after Herzog, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz visited Bahrain, where he signed a defence agreement with the country's government. Mr. Gantz and his Bahraini counterpart, General Abdullah bin Hassan Al-Nuaimi, attended the ceremony, which took place at Bahrain's military headquarters in Manama. The agreement provides for increased cooperation between the Israeli and Bahraini armies in the fields of intelligence, military training and military industry.

The development can be viewed as formalising the deepening military cooperation between Israel and Bahrain under the normalisation agreements signed in September 2020. According to Mr. Gantz, the new agreement will boost the defence potential of both countries, as well as support mutual aspirations for regional security and stability amid the technological and military strengthening of terrorist groups.

New situation in the region

The 2020 Abraham Accords signed in Washington paved the way for the UAE and Bahrain, followed by Oman, Morocco and Sudan, to begin normalising relations with Israel. The flight of the Israeli Air Force One over Saudi territory indicates that the kingdom will also join the process, but only at the right moment.

But why have the Arab countries suddenly decided to become friends with Israel after 70 years? How can one explain the U-turn in relations with Israel, which these countries do not even formally recognise as an equal state?

Certainly, everything did not happen overnight. Below is a short list of some of the regional and global factors that preceded the Arab-Israeli reconciliation. Thus, the seventy years of alienation proved to Arabs that Israel was not the only cause of their woes, although there are many who still think so. Over the same period, the Arab public has got weary of the Palestinian question, which is yet to find a final solution. At the same time, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lost its significance amid the more urgent Arab concerns.

Furthermore, the regional Arab governments, which can hardly rely on the guaranteed support of strong electorate, face a bigger threat than Israel—radical Islamist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, as well as Iran and the armed political groups affiliated with it. In particular, the dismal outcome of the Arab Spring showed that a wave of mass uprisings could quickly develop into a real danger for any Arab government at any time.

Another factor is the weak reaction of Arab countries and the Arab community, including the Palestinian community, to US President Donald Trump's decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel and to move the US embassy there. Although the move was and is regarded as a red line for Arabs and Muslims in general. Even Palestinian political groups failed to march univocally on the issue, which was also a warning message to Arab authorities.

The sudden change in the US policy in the Middle East and on Iran has prompted Arab leaders to look for new and more reliable allies. Such as Israel. After all, unlike Washington, Israel's stance on Iran does not change and coincides with that of the Arab governments.

In other words, all the above circumstances have pushed Arab governments to reconcile with Israel. We can already see the first positive fruits of this process. Israel cannot change its politico-military stance towards Iran and the region unlike the US. It is a regional state with strong military potential, supported by its no less strong ally, the US. But unlike the US and playing up to the Arab regimes, Israel does not interfere in the internal affairs of Arab states, nor does it insist on transparency or human rights.

It seems that the course towards reconciliation will continue in the coming years, involving the increasing number of regional states in the list of Israel's friends. It’s true that countries like Iraq and Syria throw a damper upon the Abraham Accords. However, we should take into account that these countries do not possess the prior authority and influence, while their leaders are busy dealing with internal problems.

In parallel, we can observe Israel's rapprochement with Turkey. Israeli president may soon pay a similar visit to Ankara as well, opening up greater opportunities for the Jewish state.

In short, the Middle East is entering a new phase of development. Reconciliation between the Arabs and Israelis does not have any tangible effect on the resolution of the Palestinian conflict, with Israel being in no hurry to make concessions to Palestine or to abandon the occupied territories, on the one hand, and the current situation satisfying a large portion of the Arabs, on the other hand. Those who are unhappy with the situation or forces observing the process from the outside have no opportunity to intervene to change the status quo. Or they are relatively far away.

Obviously, the increasing inclination of regional countries toward Israel is determined by purely pragmatic interests. We can assume that the rapid development of Arab-Israeli relations in the future may even lead to the conclusion of final agreement on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Otherwise the existing accomplishments will go down in history as just another episode of merely political agreements without any radical steps towards reconciliation.