TO VICTORY

Turkey initiated a new active phase of the anti-terrorist campaign. This includes military operations in the areas bordering Iraq and Syria, as well as in the northern territories of Arab countries bordering Turkey. Targets are cells and facilities of Kurdish groups closely affiliated to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Or part of this terrorist organisation, whose long-standing activities have already led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

Eren Winter and Winter Eagle

Back in the autumn of 2021, Ankara declared its complete readiness for a new military operation against Kurdish terrorists. Signals were sent to all major centres of global politics. Primarily the US and Russia, which Ankara accused of failing to fulfil their commitments to eliminate the PKK ‘subsidiaries’, especially the People's Defense Units (YPG), in the northern provinces of Syria. According to peace agreements reached as part of the settlement process over Syria, the US and Russia were supposed to facilitate the redeployment of Kurdish fighters 30km south of the Syrian-Turkish border. It did not happen and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said "Turks had enough".

Kurdish groups that get military and political support from abroad continued to attack the areas cleared of terrorists in northern Syria as a result of the Turkish army's counter-offensive operations Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Spring of Peace. Moreover, Kurdish terrorists also committed attacks on the Turkish territory, resulting in casualties among the military and civilians.

There was little doubt that Turkey's new military operation against PKK, YPG and similar groups was inevitable. The only question was the nature of the counter-offensive: a full-scale army operation or spot strikes on the terrorists' positions and military facilities.

The events of late January and early February 2022 show that Ankara opted for the second option. Spot strikes were so frequent and multidirectional that their effect was as considerable as that of a larger military operation.

In southeast Turkey, particularly in the provinces of Mush and Hakkari, security forces carried out a series of counterterrorism operations called Eren Winter named after Eren Bülbül, a 15-year-old boy killed by terrorists in August 2017. The ultimate objective is to eradicate terrorism in the country. Outside Turkey, in the areas bordering Syria and Iraq, Turkish army conducts the Operation Winter Eagle (Kış Kartalı). Ankara justifies both operations under international law, especially Article 51 of the UN Charter, which grants the signatory states a right to use military force to ensure self-defense, and UN Security Council resolutions on combating terrorism. It is reported that up to 80 terrorist targets, including safe havens, tunnels, ammunition depots, headquarters and training camps, have been destroyed so far as part of the Kış Kartalı Operation.

Undoubtedly, the Turkish military action is another successful campaign against the PKK and other terrorist organisations. Certainly, the terrorist threat and operations to counter it are accompanied by bloodshed and casualties. According to an International Crisis Group (ICG) report released in early February, some 6,000 people have been killed in hostilities, clashes and terrorist attacks between the Turkish army and PKK fighters since 2015. According to Ankara, the Turkish army has eliminated more than 12,000 terrorists in recent years. As a result of Turkey's decisive actions almost all the cells of PKK in the country have been destroyed. Therefore, the arena of confrontation between the terrorist groups threatening Turkey's territorial integrity and security and Turkish army has shifted to the northern parts of the neighbouring countries, Iraq and Syria.

"Until we eliminate the last terrorist..."

Just before the start of the new active phase of the fight against Kurdish terrorist groups, Ankara has made it clear that the Turkish army was preparing to enter the Syrian cities of Manbij, Tel Tamir, Ayn Issa and Tel Rifat, which are important in terms of repelling the threat. At the same time, the goal is to strengthen Turkish positions in the Idlib province in order to prevent the flow of around 3 million more Syrian refugees to Turkey. Also, it is planned to create conditions for the resettlement in the same province of nearly 4.5 million refugees currently living in Turkey. But Turkey considers all these tasks in the context of creating a buffer zone along the border with Syria, hence the clash of interests between Ankara, Moscow and Washington.

At the end of 2019, Turkey has successfully pushed the Kurdish forces back from its border with Syria. The US and Russia had to acknowledge the buffer zone arrangements. But in the autumn of 2021, Ankara accused Syrian Kurdish groups and the external circles supporting them of violating the withdrawal agreement and continuing the attacks. The goal of Ankara's increasingly frequent anti-terrorist operations is to force the terrorists to retreat and stop attacks on Turkey.

Ankara's activism in the Kurdish-Syrian direction has triggered a new phase of counter-terrorism activity by Americans. The US conducted another operation in Idlib, near the Turkish border, which, according to Syrian National Army (SNA) backed by Ankara, resulted in the death of 13 civilians, including six children. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden also announced the killing by American troops of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qureishi, who led the Islamic State after the killing of its former leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

While the Americans are trying to successfully complete another anti-terrorism operation to strengthen their presence in Syria, Turkey and Russia can conclude new deals. Unlike the US, which uses Kurdish groups to create an administrative-territorial configuration in Syria that suits its geopolitical plans, Ankara and Moscow are trying to preserve the unity in this Arab country. In fact, this is the prerequisite and basis of the Russian-Turkish dialogue on Syria, although the Kurdish factor introduces significant discrepancies into this partnership.

Since October 2019, the Turkish and Russian troops have been conducting joint patrols in a number of predominantly Kurdish-populated areas in northern Syria. The possibility of a Turkish ground military operation in the Syrian border town of Ayn al-Arab (Kobani in Kurdish) to cleanse it of YPG units is also a topic of discussions. Experts think it is possible that Moscow agrees not to create problems for Ankara if the Turks encourage radical opposition forces in Idlib to recognise the authority of Damascus.

In the coming months we will likely see the final balance of power in Syria, particularly in Idlib. Either way, it is clear that Turkey will continue destroying terrorists near its borders until complete victory. If successful, this will help stabilise the situation and establish the long-awaited peace in Syria and in the region.

There is another crucial point. Turkish President Recep T. Erdogan recently said: "We intend to fight until the last terrorist is eliminated.” Meanwhile, Ankara's anti-terrorist operation has no ethnic overtones. Partnership between Turkey and the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq proves this. This was also confirmed during the visit of the head of the Kurdish autonomy, Nechirvan Barzani, to Ankara, where he met with President Erdogan. The visit coincided with the date of Turkish counter-terrorism operations Eren Winter and Winter Eagle, early February.