SPLINTERS FLY WHEN THE AXE YOU PLY

The Russian-Ukrainian war continues to shake the foundations of the modern world order. Due to the course of hostilities and accompanying global events, we should analyse it in the context of an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine and in a broader context of geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. Moreover, the latter has grown so big that it is sometimes dubbed as the beginning of the Third World War.

Failed blitzkrieg

Ukraine and its Western partners claim that Moscow has failed to achieve a planned blitzkrieg and that the Russian army has not taken any major city since February 24. Russians, on the contrary, report that everything is going according to the original plan.

It is remarkable that even amid the protracted course of hostilities, initial terms of the conflicting parties have not changed considerably. Talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Belarus also confirm this fact. This could also be seen after the meeting between the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Russia—Dmitry Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov—in Antalya, Turkey. However, information about Moscow's terms have been leaked to the media. The leak suggests that the Kremlin will agree to end the war when Ukraine is denazified completely and includes more specific demands such as Kiev’s recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine as independent republics. Obviously, these demands are fundamentally unacceptable to Ukraine as they violate its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The only Russian demand that Ukraine seems willing to meet is to agree to a non-aligned status. And it seems the only point so far that makes it possible to negotiate a solution to secure a ceasefire, as also referred by the Ukrainian delegation. Ukraine is presumably ready to agree to its non-aligned status, as it understands the impossibility of its admission to NATO right now. But in exchange for its rejection of the ‘NATO path’, Kiev demands that its allies and partners, in particular the US and Turkey, act as guarantors of the country’ security.

We will see whether specific agreements on this and other issues can be reached very soon. It is clear that the absence of real progress in negotiations increasingly sucks the both parties into the war and intensifies humanitarian consequences. Let alone the idea endorsed by both sides—involving ‘volunteers’—which can only further escalate hostilities.

Real-world effects of geopolitics

With the outbreak of military confrontation in Ukraine, the Western sanctions policy against Russia has covered almost all the areas of life in the country—finances and banking, technology, industry, culture, sports. And even the energy sector, which is the main driver of Russia’s financial potential. Either way, the US has declared its refusal to import Russian hydrocarbons, while Germany—the largest European consumer of gas from Russia—plans to end energy dependence on Moscow in the next year and a half, expecting to switch to green energy completely. Other European countries are prioritising greater use of alternatives to Russian energy, particularly the Azerbaijani gas.

The Western sanctions are powerful and effectively isolate Russia, with all the negative consequences for its economy. While the world experts prophesy an unprecedented economic crisis for Russia, the Kremlin assures that it is actually possible to withstand the ‘economic war’ initiated by the collective West. We will see which side is right in the future, but it is obvious that Russia’s chances to stand on its own feet can only come true if its political system, as well as economic, social and humanitarian resources are rigorously mobilised. Hence so many references to the experience of Soviet times recently.

Yet is it possible today to ensure in practice a fundamental transformation of the entire post-Soviet way of life in Russia? After all, this will require radical reforms both in the system of power and in the implemented policies, primarily the socio-economic ones...

In any case, the current situation is a serious challenge not only to the Russian, but also to Western political and economic elites.

As to Ukraine, the war on its territory is yet another example of the cynical and brutal policies of the global power centres.

It is clear that the US and the EU, which for many years have encouraged Kiev's pro-Western zeal often without considering geopolitical realities, have been aware of the challenges that Ukraine would go through before it is adopted by the Euro-Atlantic community. They also knew that ignoring the reality of Ukraine’s tough eastern neighbour posed a vital threat to the country. They knew that if Russia attacked Ukraine, the West, with its military and political bloc known as NATO, would not fight on Kiev's side.

As Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union, admitted during the war, the West had made a number of mistakes that hindered Russia's rapprochement with the West, including promises made to Ukraine about the possibility of joining NATO. “It is wrong to make promises that cannot be fulfilled,” Mr. Borrel said.

NATO confirmed its own position and the position of its member states by deciding not to close the sky over Ukraine, not to help it, as Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg put it, ‘neither by aircraft nor by ground troops’. As expected, faced with such a brutal reality, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has held responsible not only Russia but also the West for the deaths and suffering of Ukrainian civilians.

Realising that real military assistance from NATO is no longer expected, Ukraine is now thinking about declaring its non-aligned status. Alo because the EU, despite Ukraine's repeated appeals to speed up its admission to the union, preferred to remain committed to bureaucratic procedures rather than the spirit of its de facto alliance with Ukraine. At the recent Versailles summit, the EU called Ukraine ‘part of the European family’ but refused to grant it even the status of a candidate member state.

That said, the EU and NATO continue to provide ‘principal support’ to Kiev's Euro-Atlantic course. But what is this support worth now, when sovereignty, territorial integrity and, most importantly, Ukraine's survival are at stake? Who and what can save Ukraine, which is caught between Russia's ‘special military operation’ and vague prospects of becoming part of the collective West? Obviously, this can be done only by Ukraine itself and its ability to defend the sacred right to freedom and decent life, as had been proved before by the heroic Ukrainian people.