STOP COVID

Many experts and officials assume that this year will probably be the last year for the coronavirus pandemic. The WHO Secretary General, Tedros Gebreyesus, Chief Medical Advisor to the US President and Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, as well as a number of European specialists on infectious diseases and virologists believe so. Even the Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who was one of the key characters throughout the pandemic, says that too. 

Fading microbe

The coronavirus is indeed parting with us, especially amid the geopolitical turmoil of recent weeks. With the increasing threat of the Third World War, the fading pandemic does not seem so scary. The latest Omicron strain is far more infectious than previous strains of the virus, but it is also easier to transmit and has a low mortality rate. That being said, adaptation and immunity are particularly useful factors contributing to the long-awaited recovery from the pandemic, as most people have been vaccinated, many have already recovered, and some have had it several times. It is important that many people are no longer afraid of the virus. This is, with reasonable precautions, is certainly a very positive and promising sign. While previously one or someone from his close circle received a positive test result in panic, now the same situation is being increasingly treated like a typical flu, that is—cautiously but without hysteria. Decisions about lockdowns and going online are increasingly applied at local levels and routinely. Coronavirus reports have become as common as weather forecast or currency exchange rates.

On the other hand, along with adaptation, there is also a factor of human fatigue. Everyone is tired of lockdowns and the constant state of emergency and wants to get back to the usual way of life: going to public places, studying in full-time mode, travelling and playing sports. We see significant political, economic and cultural events gradually returning to reality. Most recently, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Beijing, albeit without most of the fans, but it was nevertheless an international celebration. Britain, Germany, Norway, Switzerland, Italy and other European countries lifted off the last existing coronavirus restrictions, while Australia's borders reopened to overseas tourists for the first time in almost two years. Life in Azerbaijan is also returning to the previous mode.

Risks remain

However, it is too early to relax. After all, the virus is not actually going anywhere. Outbreaks of the contagion have been reported in China, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. Moreover, two years after the start of the pandemic, half the world is still unvaccinated, mostly in the poorest countries. This increases the risk of new strains developing, and no one can predict exactly what they will be. Most likely, by the end of 2022, the coronavirus will have become a common seasonal disease. But it is also possible that the new strains will be even more dangerous and infectious than those we have encountered before...

The spread of COVID-19 further depends on our immunity system’s ability to fight back and the level of healthcare systems around the world. The latter is not that good however. Alas, we were not and still are not prepared for serious disease outbreaks on a global scale. According to the Global Health Security Index 2021 report, no country in the world currently has sufficient capacity to respond adequately and effectively to new epidemics. According to The New York Times, more than 90% of countries do not have an emergency distribution plan for vaccines and medicines, while 70% do not have sufficient capacity in hospitals, clinics and health centres. It is also an unfortunate fact that in all countries of the world, including the most developed and wealthiest, because of the mobilisation of medical staff to fight against the coronavirus, patients with other illnesses have suffered and are sometimes denied not only routine medical care but also an emergency one.

Beginning of consequences

All experts agree that the social, economic and political consequences of the pandemic will be felt for a long time. After all, the pandemic has made adjustments in everyone's life and it cannot end so easily. For example, a study published in The Lancet last October suggests that the damage to mental health caused by the virus could last for a generation. Severe deterioration of mental health has been observed in more than 200 countries, mostly as depressive and anxiety disorders. For some people, even going out to public is a phobia. Many have become so accustomed to wearing masks that they feel as uncomfortable without them as they are naked. Nature notes a decline in the intellectual development among children born during the pandemic—mainly problems with verbal and motor skills. The main reason was said to be the lack of attention from parents suffering from protracted stress. Parents have had to work from home, simultaneously combine home and work responsibilities, and sometimes supervise the online education of their children.

One of the most significant consequences is that the pandemic has sparked a serious debate about what we can consider individual freedoms and how to balance basic concepts such as freedom and security. It might seem that these principles have long been defined and guaranteed in various instruments of international law and national constitutions. But in reality, they proved to be quite shaky and ambiguous with the onset of a real crisis.

By the end of the second year of the pandemic, protests against the anti-COVID measures have reached a new level where no one expected them—in Canada. In this relatively calm and prosperous state, protests of truckers have gained a lot of support. The action called Freedom Convoy started on January 23 in Vancouver, BC. The movement has gathered an increasing number of participants from among the truck and van drivers covering a 4,400-kilometre-long distance to the Canadian capital. Protests have also spread to some European countries, following similar ones started earlier in Italy and Germany. Remarkably, authorities fighting back against the protesters explain their actions by the fact that truckers and sympathisers pose a threat to the safety of residents from the ongoing demonstrations. This is a very serious cause to think of, as this may lead to precedents in the future. For example, in the context of climate change, which scientists and politicians have been predicting for some time now.

Unfortunately, in many of the poorest countries, the spread of the coronavirus has exacerbated pre-existing problems. In Latin America, for example, one year of the pandemic was enough to undo "twenty years of effort, investment and government programmes to fight against famine", Julio Berdeguet, the UN regional representative for agriculture, said. The situation is similar in the poorest countries of Africa and Asia, where in addition to COVID-19 there are many other severe diseases caused by lack or complete absence of medical care, food and clean water and basic hygiene.

A more global problem is that the pandemic has brought along other problems such as the politicisation of medicine and biology. All these issues give rise to many ethical questions, making breakthrough researches and inventions impossible, radicalises society and pushes peoples to believe in conspiracy theories, esoterics, and fake news. At the same time, there is a lack of trust in doctors and scientists, power institutions and official sources of information.

However, positively-minded scientists and political experts believe that the pandemic has prepared humanity for a powerful technological leap, especially in medicine, nano- and biotechnology, online technology, AI and other areas of science. This will inevitably affect relations within the society, even within the state apparatus. Therefore, the ongoing processes cannot run painless and without various forms of social tension. So, if we look at them from this perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic is just the beginning...