TALIBAN PREPARES FOR NEW WAR

According to a few media and social media reports, there is a growing threat of another war in Afghanistan. They offer different versions of expected events. Some sources claim that a new wave of resistance to the Taliban in the mountainous areas of the country will begin with the onset of the warm season. Others, however, mention Taliban’s plans to attack Central Asia this spring. Whatever the case, there are many plausible scenarios and assumptions about this.

Lions of Panjshir

First, a few words about the likelihood of hostilities inside the country. In August 2021, when the Taliban took over Kabul and forced the remnants of US troops to haphazardly flee the country, anti-Taliban groups emerged in several areas of Afghanistan.

This wave of opposition was led by the re-emerging resistance movement from the northern Panjshir province under the command of the late Ahmad Shah Masood's son, Ahmad Masood. The movement was later renamed the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. The Taliban seriously hit the insurgents after a few months and dispatched additional troops of special forces to the region. But they were not able to break the resistance of the Lions of Panjsher completely.

Currently, Panjsher is one of several hotbeds of resistance against the Taliban in the country. The backbone of the insurgent highlanders is predominantly ethnic Tajiks. In addition, fighters under the command of former policeman Enayatullah are carrying out armed attacks against the Taliban in Andarab district of Afghanistan as well as in Badakhshan. He is believed to have links with the Northern Resistance Front in Tajikistan. Another vocal opponent of the Taliban is the notorious ISIS.

And recently, the National Islamic Movement for the Liberation of Afghanistan led by former Afghan government army general Abdul-Metin Suleimanhil has announced a planned armed resistance to the Taliban.

The Taliban appear to be seriously concerned about the intensification of resistance forces. It is reported that ten thousand more fighters of the organisation have been deployed in the northern parts of the country for this reason. And two thousand more Taliban fighters have allegedly been deployed in the region to fight against Hazara groups under the command of Bamiyan-based field commander Abdul-Ghani Alipur.

Northern threat

There is also speculation about the risk of renewed hostilities outside Afghanistan. A number of experts are drawing attention to the increasing concentration of the Taliban in the north of the country. This is probably not due to the aforementioned pockets of resistance. One of the arguments is that the Taliban have even risked withdrawing some of their forces from the Kunar province known to be a stronghold of ISIS and redeployed them in the north of the country.

In fact, the leaders of the former Afghan government, who fled the country last August after completely surrendering it to the Taliban and are now living in Turkey and the UAE, hoped to form a coalition government with the Taliban in the first months after their escape. But their hopes did not come true. The Taliban have refused to form a government with supporters of the reconciliation policy, including Hikmatyar and Abdullah Abdullah. This increases the likelihood that the former government will support armed resistance against the Taliban. For example, last year, one of the country's most influential politicians, Rashid Dustum, urged his supporters to join Ahmad Masood's resistance forces in Panjshir.

According to the Taliban leadership, the main threat to the movement comes from the north, more specifically from Central Asia populated by the main ethnic groups opposing the Pashtun Taliban — Tajiks and Uzbeks. Last autumn, the Taliban accused Tajikistan of secretly supporting the resistance in Afghanistan. They demand that Dushanbe return several thousand Afghan soldiers that escaped to Tajikistan, as well as the Afghan helicopters stolen by them. Last October, Mehdi Arsalan, the leader of Jamaat Ansarullah group operating in Tajikistan and known to be ideologically close to the Taliban, even declared his readiness to seize power in the country. A month earlier, Tajikistan's relations with the Taliban were sharpened due to Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon's critical remarks at an extraordinary session of the UN General Assembly.

Meanwhile, Tajikistan prefers to remain silent. Similar demands have been made against Turkmenistan, which is also allegedly harbouring Afghan soldiers and stolen helicopters. But despite the Taliban's territorial claims against Turkmenistan, a Taliban representative has been appointed to the country and talks on a gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan have resumed.

Likelihood of attack

Yet Tajikistan is the country most vulnerable to the Taliban attack. With all due respect to Dushanbe’s willingness to provide asylum to refugees fleeing Afghanistan for political reasons, Tajikistan lacks potential to fight against Afghanistan. Thus, it is Russia and China—Tajikistan's military and economic allies, respectively,—that can play an instrumental role in this situation.

It is clear that Russia cannot provide any support to its Central Asian neighbour at present because of events in Ukraine. However, Moscow is trying to normalise relations with the Taliban. For instance, in late March, at a meeting in Beijing of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan's neighbours, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke positively about the Taliban. Some experts also hint at the possibility of a Taliban attack on Tajikistan to further weaken Russia.

Afghanistan's eastern neighbour, Iran, is trying to distance itself from the Taliban as much as possible. Despite serious influence over the armed resistance groups in Afghanistan, Tehran still does not want to sever its ties with the Taliban and leave the organisation to its Middle Eastern rivals.

Apparently, however, relations between the Taliban and Tehran have deteriorated markedly in recent days. Iranian officials acknowledge this too. A little earlier, the Taliban urged Tehran not to curtail the rights of Afghan refugees taking refuge in Iran. Tehran, on the other hand, sees the Taliban as an increasing threat on Iran's border with Afghanistan.

Another important moment reinforcing the likelihood of a new war is the inter-ethnic tensions and reshuffles within the movement itself. Uzbeks are known to be one of the strongest and most respected ethnic groups within the Taliban. However, this has not prevented two high-ranking Uzbek commanders from being removed from their posts and recalled from the Central Asian border regions of Afghanistan since the beginning of the year.

In January, Salahaddin Ayoubi was dismissed as commander of military units in south-eastern Afghanistan and appointed deputy minister of rural development. He was expected to become a governor of the northern Faryab province. The appointment of the military commander to a formal position in an institution responsible for one of the domestic spheres of the national economy has caused some controversy. Another Uzbek commander, Mawlawi Omari, was demoted to deputy minister of defence responsible for technical affairs. And another Taliban commander of Uzbek nationality, Maqdoom Alam, is under arrest.

Army construction

All these shifts and redeployments in the north can be explained in two ways. First, the Taliban probably expect the main threat from insurgent groups in the north and are concerned about increased attacks with the start of the warm season in the mountains. Second, according to Ukrainian and Russian media reports, Tajikistan could be the Taliban's next target of attack.

In addition to political motives, support and promised patronage of Tajikistan to the Afghan insurgents, the deployment of Taliban troops near the country's northern borders strongly supports our argument about the likelihood of the above-mentioned attack. Incidentally, we can also see that the Taliban have abandoned the traditional guerrilla model of warfare in favor of creating new militias, including air force. Many of the aircraft and helicopters formerly controlled by the former Afghan government are now out of use. Therefore, the Taliban called on Afghan pilots who fled abroad to return, offering them a chance to use all this stuff.

Since last autumn, there have been reports about the new military units created by the Taliban. But the organisation does not have resources available to build up their own regular army. Currently, Afghanistan is suffering from high rates of inflation and poverty. That’s why the Taliban are trying to create a more mobile and small but professional army.

Last autumn, there was even a discussion of declaring an army draft under the 1964 law in Afghanistan. The idea was later abandoned as it seemed inexpedient to recruit 150,000 conscripts.

In contrast to the reported 80,000-100,000 fighters allegedly serving in the Taliban, local sources claim half that number. However, these figures mainly reflect offensive forces; border and internal security forces are not included in the calculation.

There are also foreign military experts brought into the country to build Afghanistan’s future army. According to BBC in Persian, Chinese military advisors and instructors have arrived in the country for this purpose and will work in the Afghan Ministry of Defence. Negotiations are also underway with Russian experts to repair the Mi-17 helicopters.

Apparently, we may see an escalation of military tensions in Afghanistan before the end of spring. Only time will tell whether this will translate into a war against the insurgent groups within the country or against one of the Central Asian republics.