HUMANITARIAN BREAKTHROUGH

As the hostilities in Ukraine continue after more than six months, the scale of military and humanitarian disaster is growing threatening not only Ukraine, but also all the countries involved in the conflict one way or another. However, the agreement brokered by Türkiye and the United Nations on July 22 to create a corridor for the export of Ukrainian wheat has given hope, albeit a small one, that it is still possible to prevent the critical humanitarian consequences of the ongoing war.

Taken by force, returned by force

Alas, the heat of hostilities is not diminishing amid the increasing desire of the conflicting sides to inflict the most tangible damage on each other. The involvement of Western states, which unconditionally support Ukraine in its attempt to stop the advance of Russian troops, increases the global military and political effects of the conflict.

According to Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to the US President, the US is developing a strategy with Ukraine to help it both during hostilities and negotiations with Russia.

US officials admit that the US and Ukrainian defence ministries are discussing the return of Ukrainian territories by military means. Sullivan stated that the US was in "almost daily contact with Ukraine about how to defend themselves against the Russian offensive and regain some of the occupied territories... We hold these conversations through military channels and at the political level".

However, we can assume that by military means of return of ‘some’ Ukrainian lands Washington admits that the military operation may be limited to those regions which the Russians do not consider part of their own. In other words, the return of Crimea is not yet on the agenda.

The main strategic administration of the military assistance to Ukraine is carried out by the US military command in Europe.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the US aims to ensure the effectiveness of support to the Ukrainian army in order to stop the advance of Russian troops and create conditions for a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Ukraine as a military ground?

By supporting Ukraine, the US is also learning lessons from the course of hostilities, improving its military equipment, command and control skills. Ukraine gradually becomes a ‘convenient’ platform for practising a better defence system, co-ordination with allies and the use of improved technical means of warfare.

Overall, it is no longer a secret that Ukraine increasingly becomes a large testing ground. Today media mainly focuses on the Western arms deliveries for the Ukrainian army.

However, according to other information, Iran has for two months been secretly exporting locally produced air defence missiles to Russia. It is assumed that the Bavar-373 air defence system was handed over to Russia in May 2022. The system is the Iranian version of the Russian S-300 system. Interestingly, through its militarised Shiite organisations operating in Iraq such as Hashd al-Shaabi, Iran is reported to illegally export some of the weapons left over from the US military to Russia. This also includes a Brazilian-made Astros-II multiple missile launcher system. According to media reports, these weapons were exported to Russia in April. This indicates that Russia might strongly need additional missiles to continue the military operation in Ukraine.

According to US military intelligence, Iran is preparing to export its own combat drones to Russia in the near future. At the same time it is important for Iran to test its military weapons in a confrontation with a potential adversary like the United States. At the same time, Tehran denies any involvement in such actions. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman officially denied US allegations about the possible transfer of Iranian drones to Russia.

Vulnerable arrangements

Meanwhile, there was some progress in the Russian-Ukrainian talks organised in Istanbul by the UN and Türkiye in mid-July. It was reported that Moscow agreed to a truce for the transport of goods. The agreements reportedly stipulated that Türkiye, backed by the UN, would inspect the involved ships against any arms smuggling.

However, the hopes for a complete ceasefire proved to be illusory. On July 14, the next day after the talks, the Russian military launched a missile attack on Vinnitsa. President Zelensky called the shelling of the city "an open act of terrorism". At the same time, the Ukrainian side reported about the civilian victims of the strike. Russian authorities and army officials denied the accusations of strikes on civilian facilities claiming the targets of strikes be military infrastructure, including the city's House of Officers.

A similar situation occurred a week later, when the sides reached, albeit with great difficulty, an agreement on the transport of grain.

War in big politics

Analysts believe that if the war continues until the end of the year, which is quite likely, global politics and economy will have to ‘adjust’ to the war, which is exhausting the resources of both sides. But because it is going on the Ukrainian territory, it makes it much more vulnerable.

The fourth meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine, also known as the Rammstein Summit, demonstrated that the West was not about to give up its support for Ukraine. Moreover, 50 defence ministers from around the world agreed to step up deliveries of heavy weapons to Kiev. This includes four more HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems in addition to the 12 that Ukraine already has.

Remarkably, the decision was made almost simultaneously with statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said that the geography of the war would expand if the West continues the supply of weapons to Ukraine. He said that Russia could not allow "the part of Ukraine to be controlled by Zelensky" to have weapons; weapons that pose a threat to "Russian territory and the territories of those republics that have declared their independence and want to determine their future independently".

In Rammstein, the statement was interpreted as a signal to continue supplying missiles and as an indicator of success of the pursued line of operations. Furthermore, support for Ukraine is becoming an increasingly important political issue in the US and in a number of Western countries. By strengthening military support to Kiev, the Biden administration expects to improve the effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, which will be a good argument for his multiple critics in the US.

In the run-up to the US House of Representatives elections on November 8, 2022 opponents of the current US administration will definitely ask about the incumbent administration’s aid for Ukraine and the overall gain of the US from the war. And President Biden's supporters are expected to give concrete and satisfying answers to such questions.

Prominent American political analysts also openly address this issue. Francis Fukuyama acknowledged in his interview with Deutsche Welle that Republican support for Ukraine in the US is gradually waning. Former President Donald Trump intends to use this factor to return to big politics in 2024.

"Obviously, if Trump returns to presidency in 2024, this could solve all the problems that Russia faces today, because Trump intends to withdraw the US from NATO. The Kremlin will achieve its main goals simply by changing the course of the American policy. That's why I think it's crucial that Ukraine makes some progress and seizes the initiative on the battlefield during the summer," Fukuyama concluded.

Apparently, the chief strategists of US military support to Ukraine—the Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan—are doing the same.

Economics of war

Meanwhile, the EU decided to resume the introduction of sanctions on Russia by agreeing a seventh sanctions package, which includes embargo on gold, freezing Sberbank assets and new export restrictions. However, amid the weakening of Euro and forecasts of recession in the European economy, the significance and impact of new sanctions may not look entirely convincing.

Business activities in the Eurozone fell to record lows as well. PMI fell to 49.4 points (52 points in June). The volume of production and new orders fell for the first time since the lockdown at the beginning of 2021. Threats to food security have risen as well.

Yet amid such a seemingly hopeless picture, a real sensation took place on July 22 during the talks in Istanbul. After lengthy meetings and consultations, including Türkiye’s active involvement in the process in the Dolmabahce Palace, an agreement was signed between the Republic of Türkiye, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United Nations on the transportation of grain products from Ukrainian ports. The signing ceremony of the document titled Safe Transportation Initiative for Grain and Food Products from Ukrainian Ports was attended by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

It is a unique document that offers a solution to the world's most urgent problem today—the provision of grain primarily to the world's most vulnerable nations, which face not only a critical shortage of bread, but also a real famine.

It is no coincidence that Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairman of the African Union (AU) Commission, was among the first to welcome the agreement on grain corridor. He highlighted in a letter to the UN Secretary General the exceptional importance of the signed document for the continent's countries.

We know that more than ten African countries depend on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, which accounts for more than half of Africa's imports. The rapid increase in the price of wheat is threatening the lives of millions of people who already live on the brink of starvation. Many African countries may now breathe a little easier. The threat of famine may not be completely averted, but certainly has been substantially reduced.

But even the optimists do not see the agreement as a condition for solving all problems. The war continues, which means that no one is safe from new crises.

After all, the day after the signing of the above agreement, the seaport of Odessa suffered from a missile attack. This demonstrated how fragile and short-lived any agreement can be during a wartime. The world is tired of the war and any justification for the reasons for missile attacks on infrastructure facilities seems frivolous.

Yet responsible politicians are calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities inviting all the parties involved to negotiations. One of them is the Turkish leader, whose personal credit for the success of the talks is undeniable. "Russia and Ukraine need to end hostilities immediately to avoid further casualties and economic losses for the entire world," President Erdogan said at the signing ceremony for the grain agreement in Istanbul.

According to him, Türkiye has stated from the very beginning of the war that there would be no winners in this conflict and that not only Russia and Ukraine, but also the whole world would lose. We can only hope that Moscow and Kiev will hear this call.