FAILED HOPES

Many experts interpreted the reaction of Armenian politicians to the defeat in the 44-day Patriotic War and the signing of the Trilateral Statement, which actually means Yerevan's capitulation, as stages of grief as defined by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross' theory. Initially, there was a denial: "This is impossible! There are no Azerbaijanis in Hadrut! The flag over Shusha is a hoax!" Then came the anger: "How did the world community allow the defeat of Armenia? Why did they allow these Muslim nomads to win? Why did Russia, France, Luxembourg and Canada remain indifferent?”

Today Armenians are looking for someone to blame for the defeat. This can be interpreted as a refraction of the "anger" stage of their grief. But ‘bargaining’, or attempts to find an opportunity ‘to replay and correct’ the results of the war and, if possible, to ‘restart the so-called ‘miatsum policy’ would be more appropriate terms to define what we increasingly see in Armenia.

Well, it seems possible to predict the next stages of grief in the Armenian society - depression and, finally, acceptance of the established reality. But we are not there yet. Meanwhile, attempts to restart separatism in Garabagh may indeed confuse many people. Take, for example, the emergence of Ruben Vardanyan, a Russian oligarch of Armenian origin, in Garabagh.

New Hope

Vardanyan made his political debut in Khankendi, with all the theatrical effects. Standing under a centuries-old plane tree, he recorded a video address announcing his renunciation of the Russian citizenship, moving to Artsakh, i.e. Garabagh, to establish the Artsakh Security and Development Front, requesting the Armenian diaspora to make donations. Then he held a press conference, where he stated the following: "Firstly, we must do everything to make people believe that there is a future in Artsakh and Armenia.” Yet he unwittingly let slip that the small Armenian population living in the zone of temporary deployment of the Russian peacekeeping corpse (RPC) should have already wondered about their tomorrow.

After these statements, Vardanyan seemed to be a ‘knight in shining armour’. Many experts speculated that he could claim the role of the new leader of the anti-Pashinian opposition in Armenia, given that its current leaders are clearly not capable of challenging Pashinyan. Apparently, the leaders of the deposed Garabagh junta dislike the Armenian electorate too much.

However, the main surge of high hopes came from the RPC zone. In Khankendi, many seriously believed that Vardanyan, who is one of Russia's richest men, would as such replace another Russian oligarch, the late Levon Hayrapetyan, as a ‘cash-box of separatists’. This Garabagh-born Russian oligarch has been openly referred to as a ‘sponsor of separatists’. Hayrapetyan had funded many projects, from the construction of a school in his native village to a reservoir on the Khachinchay river and mass weddings. But then he was arrested, convicted of fraud and died in custody back in 2017.

The head of the Armenian separatists in Garabagh, Araik Harutyunyan, and his team need such a ‘cash-box’ anyway, especially today. Let’s remember that after the liberation of the occupied territories, the top separatists also lost many sources of income they had previously secured by looting these lands. Fertile lands of the Araz valley, gold mines of Zangilan, Istisu mineral water - all this is no longer under Armenian control. But with a Russian oligarch on the horizon and ready to assume the role of sponsor, you can imagine the joy of Araik Harutyunyan and his entourage. Some Russian experts see Vardanyan's appearance as the beginning of ‘organised Armenian resistance’ to Azerbaijani pressure.

With sanctions in mind?

In fact, for Araik Harutyunyan and his cronies, not everything is as it seems. And it is not even about whether Vardanyan has enough money for Harutyunyan's wishes. Experts, especially the Russian ones, wonder why Ruben Vardanyan gave up his Russian citizenship even though he planned to move to Garabagh. After all, he has an Armenian citizenship as well. Overreaction? Failure to sort things out first? Or all his rhetoric in Garabagh is nothing more than PR, and Vardanyan has absolutely different objectives? Russia is under severe sanctions of all sorts, including financial. In this situation, attempts of Russian oligarchs to get their money out of sanctions seem quite expected. And experts say that Vardanyan ran the bank Troika Dialog, one of the biggest money launderers, back in the nineties. Obviously, this is not an evidence, yet there are suspicions that Vardanyan has made up the whole story about giving up his Russian citizenship to slip out of the sanctions. And at the same time to secure the support of the Armenian diaspora.

This caused an outrage in Moscow. Either way, Telegram channels closely affiliated with the power structures posted direct threats against Vardanyan. They wryly note that "Russian billionaire of Armenian origin Ruben Vardanyan found the best way to escape the country he and people like him consider ‘toxic’... While publicly denying his Russian citizenship, Vardanyan declares his intention to become a citizen of the unrecognised Artsakh. This move hardly ensures any economic benefits to the businessman. But political benefits—to please the West—are obvious. It is not a secret that the US and the West have strong sentiments toward Armenians in Karabakh. Above all, Vardanyan’s statement demonstrates to the West that he is a friend and he can be understood, forgiven and even removed from the list of sanctions… The main idea is to save his own funds. He does not give a damn about Armenians. Just as before… It is unlikely that the Kremlin will appreciate Vardanyan’s move. It is no secret that the Kremlin does not like traitors. Attempts by such people to spend their money earned in Russia outside the country have repeatedly failed.”

But who is the real addressee of this warning, Vardanyan or Pashinian?

The story with Vardanyan unfolded amid another tension between Moscow and Yerevan. In response to the Azerbaijani Operation Vengeance, Nikol Pashinyan began to publicly express distrust of Russian peacekeepers, leaked an announcement of his expected meeting in Moscow, but joined the negotiations in Brussels, and so on. Vardanyan’s appearance on the scene only strengthened the position of those who asked very unpleasant questions to Pashinyan: does Armenia behave as an ally of Russia?

A round table of experts held in Yerevan accused the US and the EU of seeking to ‘squeeze’ the Russian military base out of Armenia. The hint at Pashinyan was too obvious, wasn’t it?

It is no surprise that after that Pashinyan took part in the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, where he begged for a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin and devoted his entire address to persuading Russia not to forget about Armenia amid the Ukrainian war.

But whether Pashinian could dispel suspicions remains an open question.