HISTORICAL MILESTONE

Even the most optimistic analysts do not define the European Political Community forum recently held in Prague as a 'historical milestone' in the post-conflict settlement of the Garabagh conflict. However, it was planned to arrange a meeting on the margins of the summit between the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan with the mediation and attendance of the EU President Charles Michel and the French President Emmanuel Macron.

The statement made in Prague may become a key factor and a turning point in the post-war peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And once again it was Azerbaijan that could pursue its interests as clearly as possible, even though Yerevan had a completely different plan.

Dispositions before the fight...

Many indirect indicators suggest that Armenia had very serious hopes for the Prague forum, anticipating to solve several of its cardinal problems there.

Incidentally, the infamous Armenian provocations in September took place just before the meeting in Prague. And it was hardly just about shooting. According to many indirect, yet very informative signs, Yerevan believed and still believes that Kalbajar is the weak link in the Azerbaijani defence line due to the mountainous terrain of the district, logistical properties and the geographical location of the district between Armenia and the temporary deployment zone of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. Thus, Armenian strategists were clearly counting on the capture of new territories, which during the negotiations should have relieved Yerevan of the stigma of the loser in the war. Moreover, Yerevan was also planning its new ‘breakthrough to the West’ at the start of the Prague talks. It that this would bring dividends to Armenia at a meeting with European mediation. On the eve of the Prague talks Armenia released in media the staged footage of Azerbaijani soldiers allegedly shooting Armenian prisoners.

They also hoped that not only Michel but also Macron, the French president, who is known to have his own special relationship with Armenia, would take part in the talks.

The outcome of the meeting

However, to Armenia's great regret, the Prague meeting ended in yet another diplomatic failure.

In fact, the traps of Yerevan began to prove unsuccessful even before the European summit in Prague. Armenia's provocation in Kalbajar failed. Moreover, Azerbaijan's response was so harsh that Yerevan had to think twice. Attempts to build bridges with the West also failed to yield the expected results. Even Armenian lobbyists like Nancy Pelosi made it clear that Armenia should first withdraw from the CSTO and EEU and only after that think about American support. Apparently, the West has not forgotten how Yerevan negotiated an association agreement with the EU in 2013, but, having received a substantial loan from Europe, finally decided to join the EEU. Therefore, nobody in the West is willing to provide Armenia with generous advance payments.

The staged images also failed and boomeranged. Initially many Western politicians were outraged and demanded an investigation. However, when details began to emerge and the Armenfilm scenario failed and Azerbaijan began to remind us of Armenia's war crimes, the situation turned sharply against Yerevan.

And most importantly, just before the meeting in Prague, the launch ceremony of the Interconnector Bulgaria-Greece, which is extremely important in terms of European energy security, was held with the participation of the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

It is not surprising that the Prague talks ended in another resounding fiasco for Armenia, which even the presence of Emmanuel Macron could not save. Under universal pressure, Yerevan had to agree to recognise Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Both countries reaffirmed their commitment to the UN Charter and the 1991 Alma Ata Declaration. It was also agreed that the border commissions would meet soon in Brussels, meaning that Armenia would have to agree to a border delimitation and demarcation process. Any maps proposed for this process will not be in Yerevan's favour anyway. It is also important that Armenia had to recognise not only the borders but also Azerbaijani sovereignty over Garabagh.

Equally important is what is not mentioned in the final statement at the end of the Prague meeting. The status of Garabagh is no longer on the negotiating agenda, not even politely mentioning the Minsk Group. Moreover, there is no reference to 'self-determination'. In short, Armenia has failed on all fronts.

Theoretically, the only achievement of Pashinyan will be the promised arrival of an EU mission to the region. But...

Peculiarities of the EU mission

It is better to refer to the text of the signed agreement. An EU observation mission will visit the border but will carry out its mission exclusively on the Armenian side. Azerbaijan will cooperate with the mission ‘as far as it is concerned’. In other words, Baku will determine the degree of cooperation. The task of the mission will be to establish trust and assist in border demarcation and delimitation.

Obviously, this by no means is what Yerevan had hoped for. Armenia initially planned to have the European observers on the border standing between the sides and carrying out the withdrawal of the troops. But this idea failed and could not be realised anyway, because the borderline from which the troops will be withdrawn is not clear before the delimitation of the border (even if the distance of separation can be agreed). European observers will stay exclusively on the Armenian side of the border, will not be engaged in the division of troops and will not stand between the sides of the conflict.

Moreover, while Armenia hoped for a long-term mission, it was agreed in Prague that the EU observers would stay in Armenia for two months, that’s it. In addition, the main task of the mission is to promote trust between the sides. The wording is sufficiently vague to count on the effectiveness of the mission.

Now Armenia, whose prime minister so insisted on the visit of European observers to his country, will have to take responsibility for them appearing exactly where Russia plans to deploy its new bases. With all the consequences for the bilateral relations between Moscow and Yerevan, which even the portrait of Vladimir Putin displayed in Yerevan on the Kiev bridge is unlikely to protect.

Perhaps Armenia failed not during the negotiations, but in Garabagh, where Azerbaijan is intensively building up its new strategy, openly referred to as 'rehabilitation diplomacy'.

"Armenians of Garabagh are our citizens"

Let’s go back to the events in Prague, or rather to the conversation between the President of Azerbaijan and journalists. Among other things, Mr. Aliyev said: 'The Armenians living in Garabagh are our citizens, and we are not going to discuss their fate and future with any country, including Armenia. This is our internal affair. And as part of this internal affair, the Azerbaijani authorities continue to have informal contacts with the Armenians of Garabagh.’

Now Armenians have a lot to think about. In the same days Azerbaijan held its first National Urbanisation Forum in Aghdam, the Hiroshima of the Caucasus. Despite the catastrophic destruction and traces of Armenian vandalism, more than a million mines left by the invaders, Azerbaijan continues to implement large-scale and ambitious projects on the liberated lands. This makes many Armenians of Garabagh wonder whether they should continue their dangerous games of ‘miatsum’ or integrate into the Azerbaijani society?

And the further Azerbaijan progresses, the more supporters of such integration there will be. And Yerevan has no chance to influence this process.