PATH OF WAR

The unpredictable situation in Ukraine has worsened in recent weeks due to a shocking humanitarian crisis. Just on the eve of the ninth month of the war, on November 23, and after another massive Russian air raid, Ukraine experienced its first complete blackout of the energy system, including nuclear power plants.

The situation had a very negative impact on the country's economy and on ordinary Ukrainians. But a possible expectation of increased social discontent and demands to the Ukrainian side to suspend hostilities immediately did not come true. Instead, Ukrainians have intensified their resistance, while President Vladimir Zelensky has once again made it clear that Kiev would not stop until it liberates all territories, including Crimea.

Preparing for a new offensive

"No matter how difficult it is, we are holding key lines in all directions. Our guys are defending bravely. We are preparing to advance in other directions," Zelensky said.

In response to the massive shelling of critical Ukrainian infrastructure, Kiev intensified its strikes against Russian positions using the long-range weapons.

The withdrawal of the Russian army from the only regional centre they have seized in nine months of war was one of Moscow's most significant losses on the battlefield. Now that the Russian forces are holding the new front line, the military commanders are planning next actions based on the emerging situation. They expect that Ukrainian forces can strike deeper into the Russian-controlled territory and possibly bring their counter-offensive closer to Crimea.

Russian forces continue to build fortifications, including trenches, near the administrative border with Crimea and in some areas between Donetsk and Luhansk in the east. According to the British Ministry of Defence, in some places the fortifications are up to 60km away from the current front line, suggesting that Russia is preparing for new breakthroughs by Ukrainian forces.

Because both sides have seriously damaged the Dnieper crossings, further advances by Russian forces on the left bank require complex logistical planning. The Ukrainian attack on the Kinburn Spit considered the gateway to the Black Sea, as well as in the southern part of Kherson Oblast still under Russian control can be described as testing of forces. It is believed that control of this area may help Ukrainian forces to advance under much less enemy artillery fire than if they had directly forced a crossing of the Dnieper.

Experts say the weather could do much more damage to ill-equipped Russian forces and allow Ukraine to take advantage of the frozen terrain to advance, as opposed to the slushy autumn months.

Under the current circumstances, Russia's main concern may be to prevent further withdrawal from the much larger Kherson area and to strengthen own defence systems in Crimea. It is likely that Russia will use the winter season to prepare for offensive operations in spring 2023, including ammunition accumulation. This could go in parallel with an ongoing campaign targeting critical infrastructure, including power plants and water treatment facilities.

At the end of November, a fuel depot in Kherson was hit for the first time since Russia’s  withdrawal. Thus, the Russian airstrikes damaged key infrastructure leading to a serious humanitarian crisis. Ukrainian authorities have therefore begun evacuating civilians from the recently liberated areas of Kherson and Nikolayev regions fearing that the lack of heat, electricity and water could make the winter season unbearable.

Weapons for victory

Following a well-established tradition, the new British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, made his first foreign trip to Kiev. On November 19, he promised Ukraine to allocate £50m for defence. Sunak also announced that the UK would expand a training programme for the Ukrainian military by sending experienced army medics and engineers to the region to provide specialised support.

Earlier in November, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced the delivery of over a thousand new anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Additionally, as part of the Ramstein contact group meeting, allied countries decided to provide Ukraine with two HAWK missile launchers (Spain), short-range air defence systems (Poland), MLRS units (Germany), offensive and small arms and winter gear worth $500m (Canada), a $270m aid package from Sweden, and 155mm ammunition from Greece.

Advisor to the Ukrainian president, Mikhail Podolyak, announced the list of weapons required for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to achieve their goals: 150-200 tanks, almost 300 armoured vehicles, 100 artillery systems, 50-70 multiple rocket launchers, as well as 10-15 air defence installations.

Experts saw these figures decrease, possibly meaning the reduction in Kiev’s demand for military equipment and the improvement of the Ukrainian military equipment compared to the spring and summer of this year. In addition, this is a diplomatic practice when the requesting side maximises its demands in order to receive the minimum. Thirdly, Ukrainians show concrete figures required to end the war as soon as possible. Overall, the situation shows that the UAF prefer to wage a non-contact war, where the technical means of warcraft play a considerable role.

Negotiations or contacts?

While the sides are actively preparing for a new phase of the war, it is no surprise that the talks about possible negotiations have intensified both in the media and on political sidelines. The main reason was a meeting between the heads of the CIA, William Burns, and the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, on November 14 in Ankara mediated by the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT). According to the Russian side, the talks were initiated by the US.

Burns and Naryshkin may have acted as proxies for their presidents. According to Western news agencies quoting White House sources, the meeting was needed "to convey a message about the consequences of Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine". Although it can be assumed that these were also long-term contacts to perspectively hold substantive negotiations to find a way to end the war in Ukraine.

However, only Ankara talks about such a scenario. The White House rejected such speculations claiming that the discussions covered only the issues related to the detained US citizens, as well as the consequences of Russia's use of nuclear weapons. At the same time, Ukraine had been informed in advance about Burns' visit to Turkey. Russian side was also very evasive about the long-term goals of the bilateral talks.

It was also reported that Moscow and Washington were discussing the possibility of a visit to Russia by the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergey Ryabkov and Andrey Rudenko will reportedly meet Nuland. However, it has been speculated that the talks might also be held by the deputy head of the presidential administration, Dmitriy Kozak. In this case (it is known that Nuland is in charge of the complex political issues on the Eurasian continent), it is likely that Americans are probing the prospects of a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis.

It is quite remarkable that a day following the news of the talks, Poland, a NATO member state,  was hit by missiles from the east for the first time during the war. The most probable reason for could have been an intention of possible stakeholders to derail the emerging preconditions for negotiations and escalate the conflict.

The initial version of a possible Russian targeting of Polish territory has been abandoned because the Western states do not wish to escalate the situation. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain an appropriate background for possible contacts between the American and Russian representatives. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had received "public and other" signals from other leaders about Vladimir Putin's willingness to start negotiations. "I suggested the public form because Russia is waging a public war with Ukraine," Zelensky said.

The Ukrainian president indicated that he did not want “...to have any kind of relationship with Russia behind the scenes. I am ready to recommend this format. I will think with my colleagues how to implement it.”

However, after massive shelling of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the Office of the Ukrainian President said there would be no negotiations. With civilians and civilian infrastructure becoming the main targets for Russia, Kiev refuses to publicly discuss any possibility of negotiations.

Meanwhile, Ukraine commemorated a sad date, the Golodomor Remembrance Day. Ninety years ago, for a different reason, Ukraine faced a tragedy that claimed the lives of millions of people. Ukraine held the first International Summit on Food Security on the Golodomor Day. The Ukrainian president announced the launch of the Grain from Ukraine international programme to send Ukrainian food to the poorest countries in Asia and Africa.

Kiev makes it clear that it understands the feelings of the millions of people suffering from starvation in African and Asian countries. He therefore blames Russia and draws the attention of those who support the immediate suspension of hostilities and negotiations that it is only possible if the cause of the war is eliminated.