PIPE DREAMS OF SEPARATISTS

Both Baku and Yerevan are entering a decisive phase of the post-war settlement process, most experts believe after the January 10, 2023 televised interview of President Ilham Aliyev. "It is not my intention to put pressure in this case. Nor have I ever been disrespectful to anyone, even to someone who does not deserve respect. But I have to express this again. Because this year will be, I think, the last chance. The Russian peacekeeping mission will end in 2025. It is time for them to expand their vision a little bit further,” Aliyev said. In fact, he did not use the words ultimatum and countdown. But observers are in no doubt that this was the last message to Yerevan.

Pashinian's clumsy manoeuvres

Apparently, Yerevan is striving for peace too. At his press conference, which took place almost in parallel with the interview of President Aliyev, the Armenian prime minister made a series of seemingly constructive statements. For example, he underlined the importance of implementing a ‘peace agenda’ in the region. He expressed his readiness to ensure rail and road communication between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. "We are also interested in the construction of new roads. (...) I have repeatedly said that if we want Armenia to become a developed and secure country, we must think about changing the quality of relations in the region," Pashinyan said. Finally he voiced a very unpleasant and even shocking realities for Armenia reminding the audience that the international community considered Garabagh as a part of Azerbaijan. "Both now and before the international community has perceived Garabagh as part of Azerbaijan," news agencies quote Pashinyan.

But Azerbaijan believes the statements about peace are not enough. Obviously, there are no real steps towards peace behind such statements. Many hoped that Azerbaijan and Armenia would sign a peace treaty by the end of 2022, or at least serious progress would be made towards normalising bilateral relations. Unfortunately, this has not happened, as Armenia had consistently disrupted each and every peace initiative.

Many observers in Baku believe that one of the reasons the dialogue collapsed was the appearance of Ruben Vardanian in Garabagh.

Alien element under alien sky

The notorious Russian oligarch has made a series of high-profile statements in recent weeks. Amidst the ongoing action by Azerbaijani eco-activists, he called for the opening of an air bridge to Garabagh—same as they did in West Berlin at the height of the Cold War. The fugitive oligarch expressed his confidence that the air corridor was a solution that could indeed radically change the situation, and that the Stepanakert (Khojaly) airport was ready to receive medium-sized planes. However, he made a key point: "It is rather a political issue. Pressure from international organisations, European countries and the US will be very important. Under these circumstances, the only solution to ensure normal living conditions during the winter months is an air bridge." A few days later, the all-Armenian Hayastan Foundation made an appeal to the UN Secretary General, other international organisations and interested states. The scope of demand was even broader than that of Vardanian: the pseudo-charity foundation demanded an international operation to open the corridor.

Reality check

Obviously, there is absolutely no need for the opening of an air bridge for humanitarian purposes. Russian peacekeepers, ICRC supply vehicles and ambulances regularly pass through the gathering of Azerbaijani environmentalists, and there are no obstacles to the transit of humanitarian cargo vehicles either. During the negotiations, Azerbaijan proposed a perfectly workable mechanism for the delivery of humanitarian cargo to Khankendi provided that they are inspected. But Armenians rejected the proposal. It is clear that the inspection would also confirm Azerbaijan's sovereignty over the part of Garabagh temporarily hosting the Russian peacekeeper contingent. But Armenian nationalists both in Yerevan and in Khankendi are not happy with this plan. Moreover, the inspection would make it impossible to export from Garabagh the looted gold from the Gizilbulag and Demirli mines, or bring in mines and other weapons, or to sneak in political provocateurs like the French presidential candidate Valérie Pékresse.

An air corridor would make it impossible to monitor departures and arrivals from and to Khankendi. It is not even the matter of how expensive the air transportion. Armenian nationalists have repeatedly used air routes to deliver weapons disguised as humanitarian and civilian goods. For example, just before and during the 44-day war in 2020, they flew to Armenia weapons disguised as ‘building materials’ or ‘humanitarian aid’. And there were many such episodes. Also, quite large quantities of weapons were delivered to Armenia in December 1988, when the cargo planes delivering aid to the victims of the Spitak earthquake were not inspected by customs at the Gyumri airport, then Leninakan. For instance, pilots from Yerevan revealed to the local newspaper Novoye Vremya how they carried weapons between boxes of baby food on helicopters in the early stages of the conflict, when the Stepanakert airport was still in operation.

There is a similar story associated with Ruben Vardanian too. During the 44-day war, unlike another Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, he was not involved in various arms scams. But Vardanian is under Ukrainian sanctions because Volga-Dnepr Airlines, where the oligarch is a board member, provided logistical support to Russian troops in the war against Ukraine. In other words, their aircraft were transporting weapons.

The opening of the Khankendi airport would revive all those sinister political tricks favouring smuggling by air. But while building castles in the air, it seems Vardanian and company forget about the realities on the ground.

A geography lesson from ICAO and Azerbaijan

The current attempt to reopen the Khojaly airport under separatist control is by no means new. The completion of reconstruction works at the airport was triumphantly announced back in 2012, when the then Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan promised to take the first flight to the airport. But this did not happen. Azerbaijan reminded that Garabagh was an Azerbaijani territory and the airspace above it also belonged to Azerbaijan, which means the flights could be conducted only with the permission of Baku. Otherwise, any ‘stray aircraft’ would be considered a trespasser, which Azerbaijan would first try to land on its territory or shoot down in case its pilots do not obey to instructions. They tried to make a fuss in Yerevan, but it turned out that Azerbaijan had secured the support of ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Back in 2013, the then ICAO Secretary General Raymond Benjamin supported Azerbaijan by reminding that any attempts to open the Khojaly airport unilaterally, without certification and permission from the Azerbaijani side, would be a major blow to the settlement process in Nagorno-Karabakh. This was also in direct violation of the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, as well as international legal norms.

The opening of the airport has not been realised, making Sargsyan also change his mind about flying to Khankendi. During eight years before the 44-day war, the airport in Khankendi had either been tested or announced to be in operation, but never used.

The next round of fuss around the issue of the Khojaly airport began soon after the accommodation of Russian peacekeepers in Garabagh. However, the Russians deployed a military camp on the territory of the airport but were in no hurry to put it into operation either. Nor will it be operational now, even at the demand of the unrecognised separatist government of Garabagh. Especially the attempts to voice such demands on behalf of structures such as the Hayastan charitable foundation.

Playing with fire

One would say ‘there is no harm in wishing’. But such provocative initiatives are nothing but playing with fire. Especially now, when the situation in Garabagh is getting increasingly tense after the emergence of Russian oligarch Ruben Vardanian.

But no matter who gives instructions to Vardanian, the realities remain the same. Despite all the cries and hysterics, the separatists have so far failed to force the Russian troops to taking forceful measures to open the Lachin corridor. Armenian experts believe there is a zero chance of some kind of ‘international intervention’ either. And most importantly, Azerbaijan, which has both necessary legal and other tools and levers to prevent intentions, is not going to put up with such provocative activities. We should certainly not forget about another crucial factor, that is—the Azerbaijani army. The army that demonstrated its potential in the 44-day war and has noticeably improved its combat power in the two years following the war.

If Baku says it is committed to peace, it does not mean it has no means to respond to the power scenario of separatists, who better not play with fire.