INVISIBLE WAR

On January 26, Israel and the US finished the largest ever joint military exercise, Juniper Oak 23.2. The event included approximately 6,400 American and 1,100 Israeli troops. In addition, there were 142 aircraft, including strategic bombers B-52, fighters F-35 and F/A-18 Hornet, drones MQ-9 Reaper, six US warships together with an aircraft carrier strike group and six Israeli ships.

Contextual exercise

Although the exercise was seen as a message to Iran, US officials stated that they did not use any mock-up targets assuming Iran or any other adversary. US and Israeli military officials stated that Juniper Oak 23.2 practised interoperability between U.S. and Israeli forces, rather than actions against specific targets.

A US official speaking to the US media said the exercise was not country-specific, but that regional adversaries such as Iran would take notice. "The scale of the exercise refers to a range of scenarios, and Iran may draw some conclusions from this," the unnamed official was quoted by NBC News as saying.

At the same time, Israel's Channel 12 reported, without citing the source, that part of the exercise involved US bombers targeting a simulated Iranian nuclear facility.

The Israel Defense Forces stated that Juniper Oak 23.2 was the first in a series of exercises planned for the coming year involving the US military.

On the same day, CIA chief William Burns visited Israel and met with MOSSAD chief David Barnea. The visit could have had something to do with the parties' preparations for a proxy war with Iran, which was viewed with extreme wariness in Tehran.

Back in November, the IDF and the US military conducted a series of joint air exercises simulating strikes against Iran and its regional proxy groups.

IDF chief Aviv Kochavi then said that their cooperation with the US military in the Middle East would be "significantly expanded".

Exchanging blows

In parallel with the military exercise, the Israeli army conducted its largest military operation in recent times in the Jenin refugee camp area against militants of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades linked to Iran. At least nine Palestinians were killed in the operation, most of them being reportedly militants.

Apparently, the Iranian proxies accepted the message and launched a series of missile strikes against southern Israel the day after the exercise ended, on January. Notably, the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran also took place on January 27.

In response, Israel launched rocket attacks against Gaza. This made the regional situation so tense that Israeli air defence units signalled several times about the possibility of additional attacks from Gaza, as sirens sounded in southern Israel for some time after the incident.

Regional tension also resulted in terrorist activity in Jerusalem. On January 28, a 13-year-old Palestinian teenager opened fire in the Silwan neighbourhood of eastern Jerusalem, seriously injuring two people. This happened less than a day after another Palestinian attack on a synagogue in Jerusalem's Neve Ya'akov neighbourhood, killing seven people and injuring almost 10 others.

Iran suffered an attack on January 29. Local media reported numerous incidents of aerial attacks, including with drones targeting one of the munitions plants in Isfahan. Also, a large motor oil plant caught fire in the city of Shahid Salimi in East Azerbaijan Province.

Reportedly, a military warehouse and an ammunition production facility were also attacked by drones.

Sounds of explosions were also heard in Tehran. According to the eyewitness accounts, there were military aircraft flying over the Iranian capital. Locals claim attacks on the government buildings in Tehran.

So far no one has claimed responsibility for these events, but various sources claim that these may be groups affiliated with Israel. For example, political and military groups based in northern Iraq, in the Kurdish autonomy, with a good infrastructure and a convenient base of operations in neighbouring Iran. It could also be affiliated Kurds operating in Iran.

Immediately after the attacks, Iran's permanent representative to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravani, said the findings indicated that Israel was "responsible for this attempted act of aggression". He said Iran reserves the right to "respond pronouncedly to any threat or wrongdoing" by Israel.

Last year, Tehran also accused Israel of planning attacks using its agents in Iran. In July, the Iranian authorities said they had arrested a sabotage team made up of Kurdish militants working for Israel planning to blow up a "secret" defence industry facility in Isfahan.

According to widespread versions, the drones were launched from Iran.

"Our response will be strong, swift and precise. Whoever tries to hurt us, we will hurt them and all those who help them”, the Israeli Prime Minister said at a cabinet meeting on the terrorist attacks in Jerusalem the day before.

Red lines for Israel

By "all those who help them", the Israeli prime minister could be referring not only to Iranian proxies, but also to states that do business with Iran in the military-technical sphere. Israel is closely following the cooperation between Moscow and Tehran and is extremely wary of the deal that may allow Tehran to acquire Russian Su-35 fighter jets.

Israeli concern over military and political rapprochement between Moscow and Tehran may have prompted a telephone conversation between the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Netanyahu revealed some of details of his conversation in his interview with the French television channel La Chaîne Info. He said both countries had decided to "leave each other alone" and not interfere in each other's actions. "I said to Putin straightaway: 'Look, we have a choice: we can go to confrontation or we can find a common ground. Israel acts freely... We don't interfere in your actions in Syria and you leave us alone," Netanyahu said.

Speaking about Israel's intentions in the Middle East, Netanyahu said Iran was going to build an army tht will be placed on Syrian territory near the Israeli border. He added that Iran wanted to destroy the Jewish state. And that he proposed to the Russian president not to prevent the Israelis from confronting the Iranians. In return, Israel will not interfere with Russian actions in Syria. "We have decided to leave each other alone," the politician said.

In his conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, Netanyahu said that Israeli covert operations against Iran were ultimately helping other countries, including Ukraine. Apparently, he was referring to undermining Iran's drone and missile infrastructure in Syria.

Notably, the escalation came on the eve of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s  expected visit to Israel.

In Israel, Blinken made it clear that Washington would continue to actively support Israel in its actions against Iran.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant said during his meeting with the US Secretary of State that Israel and the US had a common position on the need to fight Iran.

"We have a common view that Iran should not have nuclear weapons and that we will not tolerate its attacks in the region," Galant said. He added that the recent comprehensive US-Israel military exercises had brought defence cooperation between the two countries to a new level.

Whoever digs a pit...

Tel Aviv and Washington pledge to work together with "existing and potential allies" to develop regional defence cooperation. This was also said by the Israeli defence minister.

A bright example of this intention to work with "potential allies" is the close cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan. After the departure of Blinken, Galant called his Azerbaijani counterpart Zakir Hasanov and the head of the Azerbaijan State Border Service Elchin Guliyev. During the talks, the two sides strongly condemned recent terrorist acts, discussed regional security issues and prospects for military-technical cooperation.

Given the recent developments, there is an impression that Iran is deliberately dragging Baku into its proxy conflict with Israel. At the same time, the aim is to expand the geography of the conflict, creating a destabilisation belt to increase the influence of its proxies in Azerbaijan.

Baku has always distanced itself from attempts to draw it into any confrontation against the neighbours. Baku’s relations with Tel Aviv have never gone beyond the bilateral agenda. Neither Israel nor Azerbaijan benefit from becoming involved in conflicts outside their respective regions.

In the current circumstances, however, this danger is increasing significantly. Recently, Iranian media close to the IRGC circulated a slogan ‘The road to Jerusalem leads through Baku’, which may explicitly confirm that Iran views Azerbaijan as a key direction of its strategy towards Israel.