GONE WITH THE UFO

In early February, various media and social networks were flooded with reports of some objects flying in the sky over the US. They were first recognised as Chinese balloons, but then were called almost UFOs. Why so much fuss and so many strange high-level statements about the incident? It is assumed that the issue has much to do with the US-China relations and the domestic political situation in the US.

Scouts like aliens

Initially, there was something that appeared over the US state of Montana and identified as a Chinese reconnaissance balloon. For several days, the social media has thronged with video evidence from various eyewitnesses and speculations as to why the US air defence was slow to act. Eventually, on February 4, the balloon was shot down over South Carolina on the orders of US President Joe Biden. But then the US air defence radars detected similar flying objects over other states. On February 9, another balloon was shot down over Alaska; on February 11 in the northwest of Canada near Yukon, then over the Lake Guron. An F-16 fighter and air-to-air missiles were used in the attack.

According to US officials, a Chinese probe shot down off the coast of South Carolina might have gathered intelligence. However, then they suddenly began talking about extraterrestrial objects. It was the different size and design of balloons that made the US officials come to this conclusion. Even General Glen D. VanHerck, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), commented on the incident. He said it was not clear how the objects were flying in the airspace, or where they came from. There were also reports about unidentified objects having an octagonal structure (no longer a balloon?) and sending "very faint" counter signals (trying to communicate?!).

Melissa Dalton, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense, said that it was impossible to determine what the objects were (that is, there were no longer claims about the Chinese identity), so the decision was to shoot them down in order not to take risks. This was followed by earlier reports from the US Air Force pilots who had allegedly repeatedly provided reports of UFOs with enormous speed, decelerating and accelerating sharply, able to hover steadily for long periods. 

This raises a number of questions. Why was the Pentagon so surprised to identify the balloons (or any other objects)? Why were they identified only when they appeared over the US territory? What about the NORAD, which is primarily responsible for air defense over North America? And why was the question of balloons presented in the media as something unusual in the first place? Let's leave aside the issue of possible aliens and the presentation of the topic in the media. Yet, it does not sound like a reasonable and hospitable idea to attack possible visitors from outer space without having identified anything. After all, it seems they did not pose any evident threat to the US territory. Or did they, but we do not know something? 

Incidentally, the use of balloons for military purposes is not a new phenomenon and has been practiced since the First World War. And it was the Americans who excelled in the use of reconnaissance stratospheric balloons. They have successfully used them during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Similar models have been in use in the Soviet Union, and are now practised in Russia. According to some reports, the Russian army used the balloons in Syria. As for the Chinese, their balloons over the US territory is not something new either. This is also true for the US aerial reconnaissance missions over China.

Remarkably, whether it is a coincidence or not, the Ukrainian Air Force command announced on February 12 that Russia was dispatching to Ukraine a number of balloons with the so-called corner deflectors. These are octahedron-shaped metal structures designed to reflect radar signals. On February 14, Moldova's airspace was temporarily closed due to a detection of an object looking like a meteorological probe.

Balloons in military service are advantageous because they are difficult to detect by radars, and to shoot down at an altitude of 30 km; one needs long-range anti-aircraft missile systems or special high-altitude fighter-interceptors to do this job. They are very good for collecting intelligence data, as they can hover for a long time, collect air samples, etc. They can also be used to confuse air defense systems, and to drop explosives and chemical agents. All these features are well known both to specialists and the general public. But why was this topic publicised?

Amid the tension

It is striking that the balloon war took place amid the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's expected visit to China. The visit was disrupted because, the balloons over the US airspace "undermined the purpose of the trip". This came as no surprise to anyone - relations between the US and China have been steadily deteriorating. As noted in Responsible Statecraft, the US and China are on a dangerous path of rising tensions and mutual threats.

This is because of the well-known trade and sanctions war on the one hand, and tensions around Taiwan on the other hand. Following the visit of the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei last summer, the US has steadily increased military aid to Taiwan and provided strong diplomatic support. In turn, China has been demonstrating increasing military activity around the island and makes rather unequivocal statements. Given the circumstances, observers acknowledged the meeting between Xi Jinping and Joseph Biden in Bali in November 2022 to be a de-facto failure.

A relatively recent meeting at the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference between Anthony Blinken and Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission, resulted in a remarkable exchange of very sharp remarks. And now the balloon affair came to disrupt Blinken's visit to China at such a bad (good?) time. In addition to Blinken, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was also scheduled to visit the PRC.

It is noteworthy how both sides have behaved in this situation. Beijing responded to the US by claiming indiscriminate and excessive use of force and threatened with “consequences”. President Biden said, "We do not need a conflict with China, but competition. We don't want a new Cold War. But I'm not apologising.” What is most troubling here is the lack of crisis communication channels between the world's leading powers! After all, this incident could probably have been resolved peacefully and, most importantly, quietly, without any unnecessary media hype. What was the fuss about the UFOs?

The real background?

Global Times of China suggested that the balloon incident has been publicised deliberately. This is how the US authorities made an attempt to keep quiet about a Norfolk Southern train with more than 100 cars that derailed on February 3 near East Palestine, Ohio. It had around 20 cars loaded with hazardous substances, including five with vinyl chloride. Widespread fires at the site of the accident caused phosgene, a gas used as a chemical weapon during the First World War, to become airborne. Federal authorities stated it was already possible to return to the city a few days after the crash. However, environmental experts and especially local residents have serious doubts about this.

Incidentally, the US was almost haunted by technogenic accidents in February: a fire on a steel mill located in the same state of Ohio, a highway accident in Arizona involving the overturning of a truck carrying toxic materials, etc. Local observers believe that all the talks about the UFOs were an attempt by the US officials to divert public attention.

The domestic situation in the US will be increasingly interesting to observe amid the upcoming presidential elections.  We think there will be many more surprises similar to UFOs. It is suffice to mention the contenders for the main post of the country: Donald Trump, who is still full of ambitions to become the next US president, the charismatic governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, and former US Vice-President Mike Pence. And perhaps the most controversial nominee is the incumbent head of the White House, Joe Biden.

The US election race is going to be tough. The economic situation in the country and the world, as well as the unprecedented geopolitical tension will definitely add fuel to the process. A number of experts believe that the balloon incident was a gift to the hawks in Washington. Rumour has it that the current US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy wants to visit Taiwan as well. And that the US allegedly want to deploy hypersonic missiles LRHW and cruise missiles Tomahawk in Japan to counter China.

In turn, the Chinese masterfully exploited the balloon incident for their own benefit with a characteristic low-key menace. Well, the main thing is that the global leaders do not lose the sense of reality. Otherwise, it will be very difficult to overcome an unpredictable crisis of the shaky yet existing global order, especially amid the situation in Ukraine. Everything may be gone forever...