THE YEAR LASTS FOREVER

The anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war was not just a landmark event in recent history. It also demonstrated that most countries wanted to quickly turn this tragic page in human history and begin to live without wars and global cataclysms.

This is exactly what the members of the UN General Assembly voted for when they adopted a resolution the day before the gloomy date on the need to achieve "a comprehensive, just and lasting" peace in Ukraine as soon as possible, in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter.

However, it is clear that an intention alone is not enough. The progress of the war amid recent events shows once again how fragile and imperfect the current security system is.

For millions of people around the world, last year passed by in the blink of an eye, like a nightmare that turned their lives upside down. For others, it was an eternity woven of minutes, days and months merging into a never-ending nightmare.

American-Russian confrontation in Ukraine

The day after the US President Joe Biden’s unannounced, somewhat historic visit to Kiev on February 20, when he made a number of landmark statements in support of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual address to the Federal Assembly. A significant part of his speech concerned Ukraine.

Essentially, both leaders were talking about the same thing. Biden confirmed his firm intention to strengthen military support for the Ukrainian army, including with heavy weaponry, while Putin spoke of plans to develop the military and industrial sector to meet the needs of the Russian military contingent in Ukraine. At the same time, to some extent, the Russian president's speech was a response to Washington's preparations in Ukraine.

Moscow has signalled the validity of nuclear scenario again. Russia's withdrawal from the START-3 treaty could mean the development of nuclear deterrence systems and the resumption of production and testing of weapons of mass destruction. In the West, the decision was interpreted as a response to possible failures of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine.

At the same time, the Russian side justifies its decision to suspend participation in START by a number of factors, including loopholes in the treaty that allow the US to continue improving its nuclear deterrent.

In Russia, it is believed that the US began to create the so-called breakout potential a few years ago. This means that the warheads removed from missiles and other delivery platforms had been sent to storage facilities instead of being disposed of, as required by the treaty. However, it was possible to deploy an unlimited number of missiles with no nuclear charge anywhere without any restrictions. That is why Moscow has clearly defined the deployment of the US missile defence system in Central and Eastern Europe as an attempt to circumvent the START-3.

In 2016, the first US ground-based missile defence base in Europe, Aegis, was launched near Deveselu, Romania. In the summer of 2022, a similar base was created in Redzikowo, Northern Poland. Therefore, Moscow began to consider the START-3 a mere formality.

Undoubtedly, Russia's withdrawal from START-3 raises the stakes in the war. It is worth mentioning the differences regarding the course and prospects of military campaign in remarks of presidents Zelensky and Biden made after their meeting in Kiev. "The results of this visit [of President Biden] will surely … have a reflection on the battlefield. We hope that this year, the 2023, will become a year of victory.". The American president, however, noted that "There’ll be very difficult days and weeks and years ahead. Putin's aim is to wipe Ukraine off the map. We’ll deliver billions in direct budgetary support to Ukraine".

So while the Ukrainian side hopes to finish the war by the end of this year, the US leadership predicts that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will continue for "years". Perhaps it is not a question of prolonged war, but of a further global confrontation, with Ukraine to be assigned a role of the frontline defender.

Dilemmas of American politics

Kiev is counting on a new $500m aid package from the US, which will include HIMARS, ammunition, anti-tank systems and radars. Biden's words that Ukraine will be delivered "billions in direct budget support" allow Kiev to hope for long-term support.

It is quite interesting that a week before Biden’s visit to Kiev, the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, made some unexpected remarks about Russian-Ukrainian talks. Despite the absence of any visible signs from Ukraine and Russia showing their willingness to negotiate, General Milley told the Financial Times on February 16 that it was likely that the war would end at the negotiating table.

"It will be almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means. It is unlikely that Russia is going to overrun Ukraine. It's just not going to happen. It is also very, very difficult for Ukraine this year to kick the Russians out of every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. It's not to say that it can't happen… But it's extraordinarily difficult. And it would require essentially the collapse of the Russian military," Milley said. He believes that the war should end at the negotiating table because neither side can achieve their objectives in full.

This is not the first time Milley says that the war will end in negotiations. In November 2022, he infuriated Ukrainian officials by saying that they should use Russia's losses to their advantage to negotiate a peace settlement. Later he clarified his words, adding that "it is up to Ukraine to decide how, when and whether they will negotiate with Russians".

Former US President Donald Trump also refers to negotiations with Russia. Commenting on recent events, he said that humanity was approaching the bring of the Third World War.

In fact, by appealing to that part of the US political establishment which is inclined to limit arms supplies to Ukraine and start negotiations with Russia in order to strengthen his position among the advocates of reducing risks of a global nuclear war, the former US president revives the issue of his relations with President Putin as a condition to stop the war.

It is kind of a part of the former president's election campaign. He signals that he is the only person in the American elite who has a track record of holding constructive and most importantly positive dialogue with Moscow. In other words, Trump is making it clear that he is the man who can stop the war if he is elected for another term. Apparently, this position may secure substantial support from the US politicians and even top generals.

With his visit to Kiev, Biden is trying to keep allies united in their support for Ukraine as the war is expected to intensify with the spring offensive. Zelensky demands that the allies speed up the delivery of promised military systems and requests fighter jets. But President Biden said no to the latter request.

Biden's activism and Chinese position

However, the developments do not give Moscow reasons to take comfort, with the US president's activism being one of the reasons for Russian concerns. Thus, during his trip to Poland, Joe Biden discussed with the leadership of the country further joint steps to support Ukraine, dropped a visit to Kiev and convened a summit of the Bucharest Nine including the countries bordering Russia on his return. The topic of discussions was the same, although the character of tasks was different. By the way, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also joined the summit.

The Warsaw summit of the Bucharest Nine, which brings together NATO members of the so-called eastern flank of the alliance, ended with the adoption of a final declaration. The document condemns the Russian invasion and calls for a stronger NATO presence on NATO's eastern flank. All allies agreed that they would support each other in the event of a Russian attack.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said that the participants were able to identify next steps ahead of the B9 and NATO summits in Bratislava and Vilnius, respectively, and discussed the further support to Ukraine.

In his address to Eastern European leaders President Biden recalled, "The irony is that one of the last conversations I had with [President Putin] I said, ‘You keep asking for the Finlandization of NATO. You’re going to get the NATOization of Finland’," Implying that the countries of NATO's eastern flank will not silently watch Russia's actions in Ukraine and will be ready to repel any, even a surprise attack.

And not surprisingly, as soon as the US Air Force 1 left Poland, anti-tank barriers appeared on the border of Poland with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. Polish Defence Minister explained the move as a preventive measure to enhance security.

Another important marker of the new geopolitical reality created by the Russian-Ukrainian war was the Chinese plan to resolve the conflict.

Beijing has recently been frequently rebuked for its covert and sometimes explicit support of Russia. Moreover, the US and the EU are afraid of military assistance from Beijing to Moscow. China has been warned of sanctions roughly the same as those imposed on Russia had it continued its support.

As a response to Western fears, on the anniversary of the conflict China presented its 12-point settlement plan. The first point was to respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries. Beijing made it clear that the issue of Ukraine's territorial integrity is beyond discussion. The settlement plan also contains points calling for holding talks and preventing a possible bloc confrontation. But the main point is the first one based on support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

In fact, this issue is quite a sensitive one for China itself. Beijing believes that there can be no double standards when it comes to defending its territorial integrity. If Crimea is Ukrainian, Taiwan is Chinese.

Earlier, the chief Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi, has further elaborated the Chinese position in conversations with European and Russian leaders during his visits to Brussels and Moscow.  These thoughts then formed the bulk of the document.

Of course, the realities are not so simple, and countries are not driven by declarative principles, but by specific interests. However, it is clear that it is the principles that form the basic elements that lead to the implementation of incumbent policies. Moscow definitely sees that the basic principles of Ukraine, the collective West and China on the cornerstone issue—support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine—coincide a year after the start of the war.

An important event of the last days of February was the press conference of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who summed up the year of war. Asked his views on the likely outcome of the war, Zelensky said that Ukraine was not confronting Russia on its own, it was being helped by its friends. "We can win if we all do our jobs. I'm sure there will be a victory. I really want it this year. We have everything to make this come true—motivation, confidence, friends, diplomacy. We have joined forces against this invasion," Zelensky said.