THE ADMISSIBLE

An Azerbaijani border crossing point (BCP) appeared at the entrance to the Lachin road, on the bridge over the Khakari river, which is the provisional dividing line between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This news made the regional headlines these days and can therefore be called both expected and sensational.

In recent months, Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that the Lachin corridor was being used to smuggle weapons and fighters, in direct contradiction to the November 2020 agreements. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated this back in November 2022. Both President Ilham Aliyev and Minister Bayramov have repeatedly raised the issue of arms smuggling on the Lachin road. However, there was no proper response. Baku then decided to solve the issue on its own.

Sealed border

On April 23, 2023, a border checkpoint appeared on the bridge over the Khakari River. Three days alter, President of Azerbaijan, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev, was reported that the border guards hoisted the flag of Azerbaijan at the checkpoint. There is also a passport control booth and a group of customs officers at the new checkpoint...

Amid the emotional reaction of Armenia and third countries to the opening of the checkpoint, let us recall that the establishment of border checkpoints is a sovereign right of Azerbaijan. Any state has the right to secure its borders. Why should Baku ignore the smuggling of weapons through its borders, terrorist attacks by various militants, laying mines to blow up civilians? Just before the installation of the checkpoint, a few Azerbaijani troopers died on the outskirts of Shusha because of a mine planted there by Armenian terrorists. These actions by Armenia and the Khankendi separatists are a gross violation of the November 2020 Trilateral Agreement, as well as the Sochi and Prague agreements. Armenia maintains 10,000 troops on the territory temporarily hosting Russian peacekeepers. Why? Moreover, the mine terror, subversive activities and armed provocations pose a direct and clear threat to former refugees now returning to the liberated lands. Certainly, no state will put up with all of this. Azerbaijan, too, has long tolerated and steadfastly waited for action. But it did not work like this. So why should it come as a surprise that Baku now intends to protect itself and its people from terrorists?

As Ilham Aliyev indicated during his meeting with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, "Armenia prevents the creation of a corridor with Nakhchivan, does not withdraw its troops from the territories of Azerbaijan temporarily hosting Russian peacekeepers, and abuses the Lachin corridor by transporting through it weapons and other military products to Garabagh. Now Azerbaijan put an end to these games".

Experts express the significance of opening a border checkpoint on the Lachin road. It is the first time since independence that Azerbaijan actually controls the entire perimeter of its state border. The Lachin road is not a public thoroughfare any more. There is no threat of an alleged humanitarian catastrophe for the small Armenian population living in the temporary zone of deployment of the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent (RPC). Trucks with humanitarian cargo and the vehicles of the International Committee of the Red Cross pass unhindered through the picket of Azerbaijani environmental activists on the Lachin road.

For separatists, however, the situation has changed dramatically. It is no longer possible to smuggle VOMA fighters or people like Valérie Pécresse into Garabagh. The hopes of restarting the miatsum have collapsed. Apart from stopping the illegal transit Baku has clearly demonstrated who is the boss and made it clear that the results of the 44-day war could not be revised, ever.

Change of a general

Following the installation of the Azerbaijani checkpoint at the Khakari bridge, Moscow adopted a demonstrative decision. In addition to describing the installation of the checkpoint as a "unilateral move" by Azerbaijan in its regular bulletin, the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent now has a new commander. Major-General Andrei Volkov was replaced with Colonel General Aleksandr Lentsov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, who has experience in combat operations in Chechnya and Syria. He has already met with the leader of Armenian separatists in Garabagh, Araik Harutyunyan. Lentsov is allegedly already negotiating with Azerbaijani representatives over the operation of the new checkpoint.

Actions by the Russian Federation are quite understandable. Apparently, the Kremlin considers Major-General Andrei Volkov responsible for the so-called road crisis, which resulted in a tangible reputation loss for the RPC. It was his inept (?) actions that resulted in resumption of illegal exploitation of Demirli and Gizilbulag mines and subsequent disruption of the process subsequently initiated by respective Azerbaijani bodies. Moreover, Azerbaijani authorities had agreed on monitoring specifically with Volkov, not with the separatists. It was in response to the failure of the Russian side to fulfil its obligations that a picket appeared on the Lachin-Shusha-Khankendi road. It was the peacekeepers who failed to ensure the effective control of the Lachin road and, as seen from Moscow, gave a reason to Baku to establish a checkpoint there. Furthermore, there are speculations about an illegal business run by the peacekeepers. For a hundred dollars, they agreed to get a box through the road, or a truckload of commercial goods for $1,000-$2,000.

The sources claim that now Lentsov will have to restore order, eliminate corrupt schemes and extinguish the scandal. It is still hard to say whether the general will be able to fulfil the task. Rustam Muradov, the first RPC commander, is also said to be in the region. During his tenure, he has managed to interact quite effectively with both Baku and Yerevan.

Will it be possible to restore the credibility that the peacekeepers had in November 2020 with just a change of commander? Especially amid such sweeping political changes...

Reset of negotiations

Indeed, the new border checkpoint on the Lachin road restarted the whole negotiation process, with Azerbaijan setting the rules. Baku poses the problem to mediators but starts acting on its own  without waiting for a response. In other words, it is Azerbaijan, not the mediators, that now moderates the settlement process.

The opening of the checkpoint took place just before a flurry of diplomatic activity. The EU is trying to revive its mediation mission, although both France and Armenia have done everything to bury it. French Foreign Minister Colonna makes a visit to the region. Russia seeks to seize the initiative, recalling the irrevocability of the trilateral statement. The US is also active - it prepares a meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers in Washington. Moreover, as Jeyhun Bayramov emphasized, it was the US that brought Armenia back to the negotiating table. And they will have to negotiate from a new perspective, which both the mediators and Yerevan need to take into account.

However, Yerevan, unfortunately, once again shows no willingness to make real peace with its neighbours, and it is not just about the so-called hard clauses of the agreement. On April 15, during the opening of the European Weightlifting Championship in Yerevan, local designer A. Nikolyan demonstratively burned the Azerbaijani flag. In response, the Azerbaijani team withdrew from the competition. The next incident took place on April 24, when the flags of Azerbaijan and Türkiye were burnt during a torch procession in honour of another anniversary of the so-called Armenian genocide. But even this was not enough. On top of this, a monument to the Nemesis terrorists was unveiled in Armenia, causing understandable outrage in both Baku and Ankara.

If international mediators really think there is no alternative to the peace agenda, why don't they make tough statements about the terrorist monument in Yerevan rather than the Lachin checkpoint?!