PAKISTANI KNOT

In early May, a special police unit arrested former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. The incident took place right in front of the Supreme Court building in Islamabad, where Khan was summoned to attend the court trial into his own case. But he remained in custody for three days only before the Supreme Court's order to release him. Imran Khan was deposed as prime minister in 2022. So far, he has been facing around 90 lawsuits. According to media allegations, the main reason for Khan's arrest was his accusation of high-ranking Pakistani intelligence officials, as well as Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and Director General for Counter Intelligence at the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) General Faisal Naseer of an assassination attempt on his life. The Pakistani army denied the allegation.

Who wanted to break Khan's legs and why?

The assassination attempt took place in the Wazirabad province of Pakistan on November 3, 2022 while Khan was marching with his supporters from Lahore to Islamabad. The procession came under fire, injuring Khan in both legs and thirteen of his supporters, one person died.

The incident further dramatised the situation around Khan, culminating in his arrest. Interestingly, he did not stay in custody for long. One of the reasons was Khan's supporters, who took to the streets immediately after the incident and attacked government and army buildings. After several tense days, the Supreme Court of Pakistan ruled that the arrest was illegal and the former prime minister was released on bail.

After the release, Khan returned home to Lahore and does not seem to sit idly by. The former prime minister blamed his arrest on the Pakistan Army Command, allegedly due to a personal grudge against him. He also claims that the Pakistan Army General Headquarters is now running the country, and seven of his closest supporters are still in jail.

Reportedly, relations between the army and the Khan government cooled when Khan dismissed the head of the intelligence service attached to the General Staff.

However, the situation got even worse turning into open confrontation between the government and the army soon after Khan's visit to Russia early last year. Thus, on February 23, 2022, the Pakistani prime minister visited Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and discussed with him the development of bilateral relations. Khan believes that his relations with the army deteriorated right after that visit.

This was followed by a political campaign to overthrow the Khan government. First, Pakistani political forces launched anti-government demonstrations to protest the corruption of government officials and the economic situation in the country. In the early days of public outrage, the prime minister refused to resign, accusing the Western countries of supporting the protest movement. But then the situation in parliament changed against Khan, when his government lost parliamentary support, with 13 MPs leaving the ruling coalition and joining the opposition.

Under these circumstances, Khan asked the president to dissolve the parliament and hold new elections. President Arif Alvi decided to hold new elections within three months, ordering Imran Khan to lead a transitional government during that period. However, the opposition appealed to the Supreme Court, which overturned the presidential decision. As a result, Khan had to say goodbye to his post as prime minister.

On April 11, a broad coalition of opposition parties formed a new government led by Shahbaz Sharif, brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and current leader of the Pakistan League Party. Thus, Imran Khan has gone down in history as yet another prime minister of Pakistan who could not stay in office till the end of his tenure. But he did not give up. Instead he stepped up his extra-parliamentary political activities to rebuild his reputation, win elections and become prime minister again after corruption charges against him were dropped.

Cricket champion and Oxford student

Born in 1952, Imran Khan studied at the Oxford University. He is best known as a cricket player. He won the 1992 World Cup as captain of Pakistan's national cricket team. He ended his sporting career in the same year, and in 1996, he became politically active by founding the Movement for Justice (MJ) party.

A very popular personality in the country and appealing to both nationalist and religious segments of the electorate, Khan has secured the support of the army to get elected as the country's new prime minister back in 2018. But he had to go forge a coalition with other political alliances as the MJ received only 158 of the 172 mandates needed to form a government. And to get a majority, he had to join a coalition. Therefore, when the coalition partners of the MJ left the coalition in 2022, the Khan government was dissolved.

Reason behind the overthrow of the Khan government

As noted above, no Pakistani government has made it to the end of its term, which is five years. Only Khan came close to this deadline but was knocked out by his rivals in the fourth year of his rule. Why?

The apparent reason is a conflict between him and Pakistan's military elite. As in other Oriental nation states, the local military has a special status and power. This has sometimes led to conflicts with civilian political forces, up to and including military coups. Such as the violent confrontation between the Khan government and the army that led to his defeat.

Yet the two main criminal acts that the former prime minister is blamed for are the poor economic situation in the country and the corruption.

Khan is accused of selling some of the gifts he received while he was prime minister. The actual charge is his failure to declare the amount of income he received from the sale of these gifts, including a Rolex watch, a ring and a pair of cufflinks with a total value of $100,000.

In his testimony, Khan said he sold only four of the gifted items, which have been properly declared as sold. Under Pakistani law, officials can take such gifts only by paying 50% of their value on leaving office. However, it is important that the proper declaration procedure is followed in this case. In his written statement, Khan admitted that he legally purchased $100,000 worth of gifts, paid half of their value, and then sold them at twice the price.

Khan is also suspected of laundering dirty money through the Al Qadir Trust owned by his wife. He is also accused of resisting the May 9 arrest. In total, the number of lawsuits against Khan exceeds 90, indicating a serious confrontation with him.

Russia and the Taliban

Imran Khan and his supporters believe that behind all his troubles stands his rapprochement with Russia. For example, during Khan's last visit to Moscow, he reached a number of agreements with President Putin. One of them involved Pakistan's purchase of cheap oil and grain from Russia, to which the West reacted negatively.

The second reason was that Pakistan was trying to re-establish relations with the Taliban government after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Both actions caused resentment in the West. Imran Khan claims that he and his government were toppled right after these developments with the tacit approval of Western countries.

Struggle between military and civilian politicians

Since its inception, Pakistan has been doomed to maintain a large army due to the state of war with India (three wars in nearly 80 years) and severe internal instability. Traditionally, in countries with large armies, the military is the protector of the statehood and influences policy. Pakistan is one of such countries.

However, the army's stance has sometimes caused tensions with local political elites. Imran Khan was the latest victim of such tensions. However, his high profile among the population, and serious allegations of corruption by his opponents have further improved Khan's reputation among the common people. This made the former prime minister more ambitious, challenging the army leadership.

The arrest in May 2023, as well as the protests in almost all major cities in the country demonstrated the major popular support for Khan as a politician. He himself feels this support, which gives him even more courage. For instance, after his recent three-day arrest, he accused the army command of interfering in politics in his interview with the western media.

What's next?

Pakistan's parliamentary and municipal elections are slated for October 8, 2023. According to independent media analyses, with his significantly increased influence, Imran Khan has a very high chance of winning the elections and even forming a government on his own.

This frightens both political opponents and Khan's enemies among the army and bureaucrats, as his rise to power through a parliamentary majority in the next elections can intensify competition between Pakistan's military and civilian politicians. The latest decision of the Pakistan Supreme Court also manifests the availability of sufficiently influential forces supporting Imran Khan in the judiciary system.

More than 4,000 people (mostly MJ members and its supporters) have been arrested during the recent riots. They are facing charges of attacking state authorities. This suggests that the organisers of the process will try to seriously weaken Khan's political activity by preventing the former prime minister and his party from contesting the elections, if possible. Meanwhile, Khan himself has been released on bail until June this year. However, the court may order his arrest again.

It looks like the passions surrounding Imran Khan will only intensify in the coming months. According to some observers, in case of a deadlock, the present situation can well end in yet another military coup in Pakistan. However, the severe economic problems and Pakistan's growing dependence on foreign countries make such an outcome less likely. For the powers that actually run the country know that further deterioration of the state's image will have bitter consequences for Pakistan as a whole.

On the other hand, amid diminished financial and economic support from the West, Pakistan has become heavily dependent on the Gulf Arab states and China. So punishing Imran Khan on the grounds of his conflict with the West may undoubtedly result in Islamabad losing overseas support. Therefore, the former prime minister's opponents are trying to mitigate the conflict with him before it escalates into something bigger. However, it seems that there are equally serious forces behind Khan, making it impossible for the army and his political opponents to seize the initiative. This means that Khan can restore his premiership in the upcoming elections, becoming a stronger and more ambitious politician.