CHANCE TO CHOOSE

The European Political Community Summit was the largest diplomatic event Chisinau and Moldova ever hosted. Participants discussed the most urgent issues today, including security, stability and communication in Europe. Apparently, Moldova tried to use this opportunity to reaffirm its pro-European orientation and once again draw attention to the Transdniestrian issue.

Moldova has long headed for the integration with the EU and NATO. Together with Ukraine, it was granted candidate status for EU membership in June 2022. Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, clearly stated that the frozen conflict in Moldova would not be an obstacle to the country's accession to the EU. "It is true that Moldova has a territorial problem, but the European path does not necessarily depend on Transnistria. The Republic of Moldova can become a member of the EU. Cyprus also has a territorial problem, but it joined the EU. The Republic of Moldova can do the same," Borrell said.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu announced her intention to start negotiations on the country's accession to the EU by the end of this year. But Chisinau hopes to join the EU by 2030 together with Transnistria. It believes that it will be possible to come to a peaceful agreement with the eastern region. Currently, there are two important factors on stake: economic and military.

Economy

During the summit, Chisinau concluded a number of agreements with the EU, covering a wide range of areas from investment and digitalisation to new opportunities in the European market for local producers. They collectively should contribute to Moldova's ability to counter hybrid threats, reported the Western media.

Remarkably, whereas Moldova's trade turnover with Russia and other CIS countries was 70% only 15 years ago, now the country maintains the same level with Western countries, mainly the EU. Economically, Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Last year Moldova observed a 5.9% decline in GDP, while the level of salaries dropped by 3.9% in 1Q2023. President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced an aid package of 1.6 billion euros for Moldova. "We want to help you deal with the consequences of the conflict in your neighbourhood, and we want to bring you closer to the EU. In the context of the European Political Community summit, Moldova is at the heart of Europe, Moldova is Europe. Today and tomorrow, all of Europe is Moldova," EC President said at a joint press conference with her Moldovan counterpart.

Interestingly, Chisinau considers economic prosperity to be the key to resolving the Transdniestrian conflict. It should make Moldova attractive enough to ensure the peaceful reintegration of the region on the left bank of the Dniester. But in the past it was the former Soviet industry in Transnistria that fuelled its confidence in independence. Now we can see a lot of changes in the region.  "The sooner we raise the standard of living, the better will be our chance of reunification with Transnistria. That is our goal," President Sandu believes.

War

Despite indirect references to the Transdniestrian issue at the summit, experts kept asking the question: how will strengthening relations between Chisinau and Brussels affect the conflict? Apparently, the most important potential factor that can affect the situation is the war in Ukraine. After all, Transdniestria is less than 100 kilometres from Odessa and can become easily involved in the conflict.

"We [Ukraine and Moldova] have frozen conflicts in neighbouring territories. Why is there still a Russian contingent in Transnistria? The Kremlin should unblock the situation in Moldova. The problem is more than 30 years old and needs a solution, leaving no room for frozen conflicts and wars... It is the time for solutions!" Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said at the Moldova summit. He added that he was ready to help settle the Transnistrian conflict, but only at Chisinau's request.

Before the summit, the Romanian branch of Deutsche Welle noted: "The castle hosting the summit is located just a few kilometres away from Transnistria, a rebellious pro-Russian region on Moldovan territory, accommodating the remains of the Russian 14th Army and the largest armoury in Europe (in the village of Colbasna) guarded by Russian soldiers. Holding the meeting of European leaders there seems to be a response to Russia's attempt to sow fear in Europe."

In fact, the majority of the Transnistrian population has Russian citizenship, and the region has no land borders with Russia. Since Transnistria is part of Moldova (even Russia does not recognise its independence), Ukrainian army cannot attack the republic without a sanction from Chisinau. But theoretically, Moldova can launch, with Romanian assistance, an operation to restore its territorial integrity and then ask Ukraine for help. If Kiev responds to Chisinau's call with a sufficiently large military contingent, Transnistria will be able to resist for only a short time. The Russian peacekeeping contingent in the region, mainly composed of contracted locals and the so-called 'own armed forces', is unlikely to give a serious rebuff. There is also an ammunition depot in Colbasna, but this is more of a con than a pro for the situation.

Thus, many experts believe that the talks about Transnistria to be used by Russia as a springboard for an attack on Moldova are hardly grounded. "Russian Armed Forces will adequately respond to the provocation of the Kiev regime and ensure the protection of fellow compatriots, the Russian peacekeeping contingent, members of the operational group of Russian troops and military depots in Colbasna, Transnistria. Any actions that pose a threat to their security will be considered under international law as an attack on the Russian Federation," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said at the end of May.

It is unlikely that Moscow is interested in escalating the war on Moldova. But it is clear that Chisinau realises the risks of being in the epicentre of confrontation between Russia and the West, thereby trying to avoid them. For example, one of the Russian missile strikes on Ukraine left Moldova without electric power for quite a long period of time. In general, Moldova's energy system has a lot of weaknesses and may break down quickly, which is a very serious threat to the economic situation in the country. By the way, Romanian President Klaus Johannis stated that Bucharest would not interfere if there was a military conflict in Moldova.

Diplomacy

On June 4-7, the German Foreign Policy Society organised a round table on the settlement of the Transdniestrian conflict in Berlin with the participation of officials and experts from a number of EU countries. Moldova was represented by Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Oleg Serebrian. Many thought that Germany thus wanted to restore its mediation mission in the Transnistrian settlement, and that this was most likely decided and agreed during or after the the European Political Community Summit. Apparently, the 5+2 format previously approved for the Transnistrian conflict is not effective now, although no one has formally abandoned it. It seems that Europe has indeed decided to increase diplomatic pressure in order to find a solution to the long-standing conflict. Even amid the difficult situation in the region and the world.

Incidentally, NATO aircraft protected Moldova's airspace for the duration of the summit. Moldova also receives other assistance from the West for its army. For example, Poland has recently started arms and ammunition supplies to Moldova. Apparently, the development of situation around Transnistria will be mainly influenced by the war in Ukraine from predictable scenarios to unpredictable ones. Moldova looks to the West with hope. The question is where its Transnistrian region will look in the near future.